-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI CBR Preview - July 2021: CBR to Hike +75bp, Material Risks to “One-Off” +100bp Hike
Executive Summary:
- CBR expected to rase its Key Rate +75bp, with material risks to +100bp
- Headline & Core CPI rose to 6.5% & 6.6% Y/Y in June, with expected to tick higher to 6.7% Y/Y in July
- However, demand-side drivers evident in growth-related high-frequency data have shown signs of moderation in June alongside weekly CPI prints in July
- Although base effects are expected to filter through in the coming months, CBR will not wish to continue chasing data and rather act decisively to anchor runaway expectations through a larger hike than the prior two +50bp meetings - which have done little to temper overshooting pressures in CPI
- Guidance in the prior meeting and subsequent TV interviews has also been hawkish, stressing that "the balance of risks had shifted significantly towards pro-inflationary ones"
- Nabiullina will likely also be careful to retain the prior meeting's relatively hawkish tone - alluding to data-dependent future developments until the decceleration in pro-inflationary factors becomes more deeply ensconced.
- Medium term forecasts are expected to be revised higher in terms of average and year-end inflation. 2021 Growth forecasts may also be revised higher towards 4.0%.
Despite the broad uncertainty surrounding this meeting, as reflected in the +50-100bps range of expectations, we see the CBR delivering a +75bps hike with risks to +100bps as sharply overshooting CPI continues to drive policy rates beyond the 5-6% neutral range in the near-term. Elevated uncertainty in the pricing outlook may see the CBR seek to retain the optionality of a further +25-50bps in the pipeline for September, should prices fail to moderate on favourable base effects.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.