Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive summary:
- The CBRT are expected to keep rates on hold following guidance in previous meeting statements that current rates are now “adequate” to support the economy.
- Sell-side are uniform in seeing rates held at 8.5% ahead of the Presidential runoff elections on May 28.
- Significant TRY weakness and persistent downward pressure on the CBRT’s FX reserves leaves little room for manoeuvre.
See the full MNI Preview with a summary of sell-side views here:
The CBRT left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 8.5% in April and once again described rates as “adequate” having held steady in March too. The policy statement reiterated that the level and underlying trend of inflation has been improving in recent months due to the central bank’s policy approach and again acknowledged that threats to global financial stability remain. The only meaningful change to the statement was the addition of the following line - “Leading indicators show that the economic activity in the earthquake zone has been recovering faster than expected” - in what was an otherwise identical statement to the March edition.
On the data front, Turkish CPI jumped by +2.39% M/M in April, while prices accelerated by 43.68% Y/Y, marginally lower than anticipated though the decline continues to be driven by base effects. On the other hand, industrial production data significantly missed expectations again (-0.1% Y/Y vs. +2.7% expected) while the current account recorded another deep deficit (-$4.48bln vs. -$8.76bln prior).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.