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MNI China Press Digest Jan 31: Debt, Mortgages, A-shares

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(MNI) Beijing

MNI picks key stories from today's China press

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Highlights from Chinese press reports on Tuesday:

  • Fiscal authorities should take measures to support people’s livelihood and counter the reduction in household income that has triggered increasing mortgage defaults, said Sheng Songcheng, previously head of the statistics and analysis department at the People’s Bank of China, in an article on China Business Network. Although real estate regulations have been relaxed and more bank loans have been offered to developers, the effects have yet to be seen at an obvious pace given the impact on incomes from the pandemic, he noted. Since China faces an uncertain Covid situation, additional fiscal support targeting household incomes should be made to boost the economy and stabilise the property market, Sheng pointed out.
  • China should not significantly expand the quota of local government special bonds as local authorities have suffered increasing pressures from debt repayments, Caixin Magazine reported citing experts. China's local government debt ratio - local government outstanding debt/ total fiscal revenue - is approaching or has reached the international red line of 120%, even though China government debt ratio - national outstanding debt/GDP - is lower than 60%, it said. The surging issuance of local government special bonds in recent years has increased debt risk, particularly for some governments in the middle and west regions. New debt interest repayments reached a record high of CNY192 billion last year, even though rates on debt issues dropped to 3.02% in 2022 from 3.89% in 2018.
  • Foreign capital will continue to flow into China’s A-share market this year as Chinese assets become more attractive as the economy bottoms out and global liquidity is expected to ease, China Securities Journal reported citing analysts. North-bound capital inflows reached a net of CNY131 billion so far in January, compared with a total of CNY90 billion for the whole 2022. The value of A-share market will further rise, boosted by the accelerating launch of supportive policies and the recovery in market confidence, analysts predicted.
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Highlights from Chinese press reports on Tuesday:

  • Fiscal authorities should take measures to support people’s livelihood and counter the reduction in household income that has triggered increasing mortgage defaults, said Sheng Songcheng, previously head of the statistics and analysis department at the People’s Bank of China, in an article on China Business Network. Although real estate regulations have been relaxed and more bank loans have been offered to developers, the effects have yet to be seen at an obvious pace given the impact on incomes from the pandemic, he noted. Since China faces an uncertain Covid situation, additional fiscal support targeting household incomes should be made to boost the economy and stabilise the property market, Sheng pointed out.
  • China should not significantly expand the quota of local government special bonds as local authorities have suffered increasing pressures from debt repayments, Caixin Magazine reported citing experts. China's local government debt ratio - local government outstanding debt/ total fiscal revenue - is approaching or has reached the international red line of 120%, even though China government debt ratio - national outstanding debt/GDP - is lower than 60%, it said. The surging issuance of local government special bonds in recent years has increased debt risk, particularly for some governments in the middle and west regions. New debt interest repayments reached a record high of CNY192 billion last year, even though rates on debt issues dropped to 3.02% in 2022 from 3.89% in 2018.
  • Foreign capital will continue to flow into China’s A-share market this year as Chinese assets become more attractive as the economy bottoms out and global liquidity is expected to ease, China Securities Journal reported citing analysts. North-bound capital inflows reached a net of CNY131 billion so far in January, compared with a total of CNY90 billion for the whole 2022. The value of A-share market will further rise, boosted by the accelerating launch of supportive policies and the recovery in market confidence, analysts predicted.