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MNI CNB Review - December 2021: CNB Delivers Another Aggressive Hike

Czech National Bank
Czech National Bank

Executive Summary:

  • CNB surprised the market with an aggressive 100bps hike
  • Policy rate rate now stands at its highest level pre-GFC
  • With inflation expected to remain elevated longer than previously estimated, the terminal rate could be reviewed to the upside (above 4%).

Link to full preview:

Dec 22 CNB Review.pdf

The CNB decided to raise its benchmark rate more than expected by 100bps to 3.75% (vs. 3.5% exp.) on Wednesday to continue its fight against inflation. Figure 1 (left frame) shows that the policy rate now stands at its highest level pre-GFC and will certainly reach new record highs based on recent Czech policymakers’ speeches. With inflation expected to remain elevated longer than previously estimated, the terminal rate could be reviewed to the upside (above 4%).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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