MNI COMMODITY ANALYSIS: Chinese Oil Demand Indicators - March Update

Executive summary:

• China remains the forefront of 2023 oil demand growth expectations, but some indicators suggest the initial ‘pent up’ surge has slowed or retreated in some cases. China’s demand outlook remains positive, but it highlights its full return could be bumpy.
• Bank forecasts as well as those by the IEA and OPEC still hinge global demand growth in 2023 on the Chinese demand recovery – particularly in aviation as international travel still lags historical levels.
• Discounted Russian crude barrels underpin China’s demand recovery as its refiners take advantage of an ability to drive better margins. China’s growing appetite for Russian barrels has eased some of the fears about Russian volumes falling off the market post sanctions.
• Chinese oil product exports – especially diesel – are set to significantly fall off the market this month to support the domestic recovery where refiners are securing better margins.

MNI Chinese Oil Demand Indicators - March Update.pdf