MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Downtrend Extends Post-RBA

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Downtrend Extends Post-RBA

• S&P E-Minis trend conditions are bearish, however, the strong bounce late last week has eased bearish pressure. Note that the contract has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and importantly, this has left a key support intact - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The line intersects 4221.20.
• EURUSD edged higher Monday, resulting in the 50-day EMA being pierced for a second time. The average intersects at 1.0659 - a clear break would signal scope for an extension higher and open 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. The current AUDUSD downtrend remains intact with price trading at its recent lows. The recent consolidation still appears to be a bear flag and if correct, it reinforces the downtrend. Note that moving average studies have crossed to highlight a bear-mode set-up. USDCAD is consolidating. Bullish conditions remain intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The focus is on key near-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and clear the way for a test of the 1.3800 handle.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish, however, the metal traded higher last week and breached resistance at $1846.4, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher - this would open $1870.5, the Feb 14 high. WTI futures remain bullish following last week’s appreciation and the contract started this week on a positive note. Price is through resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.09 today.
• Bund futures gains are considered corrective and a short-term recovery would allow the oversold trend condition to unwind. The trend direction remains down - last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and last week’s lows reinforce the current direction.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Pierces Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.0915 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg.
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.0724/28 38.2% of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg / 50-dma
• RES 1: 1.0694 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 1.0686 @ 05:44 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.0577/33 Low Mar 2 / Low Feb 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0404 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD edged higher Monday, resulting in the 50-day EMA being pierced for a second time. The average intersects at 1.0659 - a clear break would signal scope for an extension higher and open 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is 1.0533, the Feb 27 low and bear trigger. A break would resume the bear cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.2244 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 17 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2060 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2040 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1783 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is bearish and support to watch is 1.1915, the Feb 17 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. A break of this key price point would highlight a broader medium-term reversal threat and a potential double top pattern on the daily chart. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2147, Feb 21 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Signals

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 1: 0.8897 High Mar 01
• PRICE: 0.8874 @ 06:04 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 0.8821 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish following last week’s bounce. The cross has topped resistance at a trendline drawn from the early February highs - the line intersects at 0.8869. A continuation higher would highlight a potential reversal and expose 0.8929, the Feb 17 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. On the downside, a break of 0.8755, the Feb 28 low is required to reinstate the recent downleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 139.59 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 137.95 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 137.09 High Mar 02 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.96 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 135.26 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 133.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.55 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week, the pair pierced 136.67, 38.2% of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear break of this retracement would open 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at 133.90, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 145.19 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 143.49 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.66/15 50-day EMA / Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Fresh gains last week maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has recently cleared 144.19, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg. This break opens 145.80 next, the 76.4% retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 142.15, Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6870 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
• RES 1: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6708 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 0.6694 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21

The current AUDUSD downtrend remains intact with price trading at its recent lows. The recent consolidation still appears to be a bear flag and if correct, it reinforces the downtrend. Note that moving average studies have crossed to highlight a bear-mode set-up. Price has also recently cleared a trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6870.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 34
• RES 3: 1.3795 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3616 @ 08:03 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 1.3525 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3486 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Feb 16

USDCAD is consolidating. Bullish conditions remain intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The focus is on key near-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and clear the way for a test of the 1.3800 handle. The support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 1.3486. A clear breach of this average would be seen as a short-term bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 134.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 133.06 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.63 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 132.01 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 130.76 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 130.35 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.26 2.382 proj of the Jan 18 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.79 2.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures gains are considered corrective and a short-term recovery would allow the oversold trend condition to unwind. The trend direction remains down - last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 133.06, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 130.35, last week’s low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 116.890 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 116.390 High Feb 27
• RES 2: 116.060 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 115.440/770 High Mar 6 / 1
• PRICE: 114.840 @ 05:08 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 114.740 Low Mar 6
• SUP 2: 114.730 3.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 3: 114.560 3.236 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 4: 114.455 3.382 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing

Bobl futures traded lower Monday. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and reinforces the current downtrend. Note that the trend is oversold - any short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold reading to unwind. For now, the focus is on 114.730, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 115.440, the Mar 6 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 105.260 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.060 High Feb 27
• RES 2: 104.935 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 104.735/840 High Mar 2 / 1
• PRICE: 104.455 @ 05:18 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 104.400 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.380 4.382 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing
• SUP 3: 104.360 4.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.336 4.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 recent price swing

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and Monday’s move lower confirmed once again, a resumption of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current bearish theme. The focus is on a move towards 104.384 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 104.735, the Mar 2 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.69/100.98 High Mar 1 / High Feb 27
• PRICE: 99.97 @ Close Mar 6
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.70 1.618 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and last week’s lows reinforce the current direction. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that the 100.00 handle has been breached. A continuation lower would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, resistance is seen at 100.98, the Feb 27 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 113.72 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 113.43 High Feb 24 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.74 High Feb 27
• RES 1: 112.47 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 111.42 @ Close Mar 6
• SUP 1: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.55 1.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.20 1.764 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low of 110.25 on Mar 2. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and this reinforces the downtrend. The focus is on the 110.00 handle and 109.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, recent gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 112.47, yesterday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 113.43, the Feb 24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Channel Highlights Uptrend

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4328.00 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 4318.00 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 4221.20 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4175.00/4151.90 Low Feb 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from recent lows and importantly, this has left a key support intact - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The line intersects 4221.20. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact. Monday’s gains resulted in a test of 4323.00, the Feb 16 high and bull trigger. A clear break would resume the uptrend. On the downside, a breach of the channel base alters the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bounce Eases Bearish Pressure

• RES 4: 4208.50 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4141.59 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear le
• RES 2: 4100.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 4082.50 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 4057.25 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: 3974.00 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 3925.00/3901.75 Low Mar 2 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3819.00 Low Jan 6

S&P E-Minis trend conditions are bearish, however, the strong bounce late last week has eased bearish pressure. Note that the contract has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. An ability to hold on to its latest gains would signal scope for a recovery towards 4100.20, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 3925.00, the Mar 2 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: $91.48 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $86.75 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $86.21 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $82.36 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $80.25/78.84 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 3: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger

Brent futures continue to appreciate and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price remains above the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 83.90. Resistance at $86.55, the Feb 13 high, has been pierced today. A clear break would open $88.78 next, the Jan 23 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme. Initial firm support lies at $82.36.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.94 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $80.54 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $75.83 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger

WTI futures remain bullish following last week’s appreciation and the contract started this week on a positive note. Price is through resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.09 today. The breach reinforces short-term bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a breach of support at $73.80 is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme. First support is at $75.83.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1858.3 - High Mar 6
• PRICE: $1848.1 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1794.8 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish, however, the metal traded higher last week and breached resistance at $1846.4, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher - this would open $1870.5, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low. A break would resume recent bearish activity.

SILVER TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.149 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.578 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.118 @ 07:27 GMT Mar 7
• SUP 1: $20.424 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower exposes $20.265 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test and break of the $20.00 handle. Initial resistance to watch is at $21.578, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at $22.149. The area between these two averages marks a key resistance zone where a break is required to signal a trend reversal.