MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Trades Fresh Trend Lows

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Trades Fresh Trend Lows

• In the FX space, EURUSD is lower again today in line with general USD strength. This week has seen the pair slip through support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low and the 1.1700 handle. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing the prevailing bearish theme. This opens 1.1603 next, the Nov 4, 2020 low. AUDUSD has traded to fresh trend lows as a bearish condition strengthens. The breach of 0.7290 earlier in the week confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current downward cycle. Price has also cleared 0.7200 and this opens 0.7178 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• On the commodity front, Gold is weaker this morning but remains closer to recent highs. The yellow metal has this week traded through the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1797.8 today. WTI futures are lower this morning and importantly have cleared the former key support at $65.01, Jul 20 low. The break of this bear trigger strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a deeper retracement.
• On the equity front, S&P E-minis outlook is bullish however a corrective cycle appears to be dominating for now. If correct it suggests the contract will weaken near-term following the pullback over the past 48-hours. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA reinforcing a short-term bearish theme. EUROSTOXX 50 continues to retrace as a corrective cycle extends. Futures are approaching support at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4151.15. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
• In FI, Bund futures are slightly firmer. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bullish with moving average studies still in a bull mode. Recent gains in Gilt futures stalled ahead of the 200-dma. The pullback that followed from this high is considered corrective with key support seen at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.07.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.1856 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1784/1805 20-day EMA / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 1.1742 High Mar 18
• PRICE: 1.1676 @ 05:58 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.1666 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1495 Hi Mar 9, 2020

EURUSD is lower again today in line with general USD strength. This week has seen the pair slip through support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low and the 1.1700 handle. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing the prevailing bearish theme. This opens 1.1603 next, the Nov 4, 2020 low. Below here, the immediate post pandemic highs at 1.1495 would likely act as strong psychological and pivot support. Resistance is at 1.1694.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Pressure Extends

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3916 High Aug 9
• RES 2: 1.3850/71 High Aug 17 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3786 High AUg 18
• PRICE: 1.3721 @ 06:06 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.3691 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3452 Low Jan 11

GBPUSD has once again resumed the pullback from 1.3983, Jul 30 high. The move lower reinforces a bearish condition and confirms the end of the corrective bounce in late July. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and further weakness would expose support at 1.3691, Jul 22 low with key support located at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. A convincing recovery back above the 50-day EMA at 1.3871 is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 0.8610 High Jul 22
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 23
• RES 2: 0.8558 High Aug 2 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8537/47 High Aug 17 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8511 @ 06:12 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 0.8484/50 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8407 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP is consolidating and holding onto recent gains. The cross is testing the 20-day EMA. Further gains would open the 50-day EMA at 0.8547. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bearish. The recent print down at 0.8450 marks the lowest level since February last year and signals scope for an extension toward the Feb 27, 2020 low at 0.8430 and vol band support at 0.8407. Key near-term resistance is 0.8558, Aug 2 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Extends This Week's Recovery

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.46 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 110.16 @ 06:18 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 109.48 Low Aug 18
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7

USDJPY remains above recent lows and is higher today. Despite recent gains, the pair still appears vulnerable and attention is on the key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the 108.47 Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would ease bearish concerns and instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.56 High Jul 29
• RES 2: 129.71/130.01 High Aug 16 / High Aug 5
• RES 1: 129.14 Low Aug 8
• PRICE: 128.65 @ 06:23 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 128.22 Low Aug 18
• SUP 2: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9

EURJPY remains weak and is trading closer to recent lows. This week's key technical development has been the break of 128.60, Jul 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend paving the way for an extension of the bearish cycle. Note too that the move lower has also confirmed a clear breach of the 200-dma. Potential for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. Initial firm resistance is at 129.71.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears The 0.7200 Handle

• RES 4: 0.7427/44 High Aug 4 and the reversal trigger / 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7389 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.7341 High Aug 17
• RES 1: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 0.7195 @ 06:35 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 0.7178 1.500 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.7122 1.618 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2, 2020

AUDUSD has traded to fresh trend lows as a bearish condition strengthens. The breach of 0.7290 earlier in the week confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current downward cycle. Price has also cleared 0.7200 and this opens 0.7178 next, a Fibonacci projection and 0.7053 further out, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.7290, low Jul 21.

USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.2881 High Jan 28
• RES 3: 1.2846 1.236 proj of the Jun 1 - 21 - 23 swing
• RES 2: 1.2807 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2730 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.2705 @ 06:43 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.2649/2547 Intraday low / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2476 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2422/07 Jul 30 low / 50.0% of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2313 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally

USDCAD is trading higher and extending the recovery from the Jul 30 low. This week's gains strengthen a bullish case. The pair has probed the 1.2700 handle today, signalling scope for a climb towards the key resistance at 1.2807 next, Jul 19 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode suggesting an uptrend remains intact. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.2422, Jul 30 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 178.37 High Jan 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 178.12 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 177.69 1.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 177.61 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 177.02 @ 04:58 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 176.21 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 175.82/24 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 175.06 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15

Bund futures are slightly firmer. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bullish with moving average studies still in a bull mode. Momentum studies have been in overbought territory recently however this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage of the uptrend. Support is located at 176.21, Aug 11 low and a break would be bearish. The bull trigger is 177.61, Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 136.647 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 4: 136.041 61.8% retracement of the March 2020 downleg
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.640 High Aug 05
• PRICE: 135.360 @ 04:51 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 135.140/134.900 Low Aug 13 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.886/710 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• SUP 3: 134.570 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures continue to trade below recent highs. The recent pullback hasn't altered the bullish trend and the move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues to dominate. Attention is on the Dec 11 2020 highs of 135.700 and the 136.041 Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is at 135.140, Aug 13 low. The bull trigger is unchanged 135.640, Aug 5 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 112.450 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.425 2.618 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.360 HIgh Aug 9
• PRICE: 112.325 @ 04:54 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 112.295/285 Low Aug 13 and 16 / Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 112.272 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 112.210 Low Jul 20

Schatz futures are still trading closer to recent lows and remain below this month's high. The contract has recently probed the 20-day EMA and further weakness would open the 50-day EMA at 112.272. The broader uptrend remains intact though with moving average studies holding a bullish position and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows intact. A resumption of strength would open the bull trigger at 112.415, Aug 8 high.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 131.72 38.2% retracement of the Mar'20 - Jun'21 sell-off
• RES 3: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 2: 130.72 High Aug 3 / 2.236 of the May 13-26-Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 130.52 200-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 129.82 @ Close Aug 18
• SUP 1: 129.22/129.07 Low Aug 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.87 Low Jul 1

Recent gains in Gilt futures stalled ahead of the 200-dma - the contract achieved a high print of 130.72 on Aug 4. The pullback that followed from this high is considered corrective with key support seen at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.07. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. The trend remains up and the bull trigger is 130.72 with the 200 dma at 130.52 (cont) also marking a key hurdle for bulls.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 156.19 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 156.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 155.19 @ Close Aug 18
• SUP 1: 154.54 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 1543.09 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 153.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 151.93 High Jul 8

BTP futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate. The trend remains up though with moving average studies holding a bull position. Furthermore, a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows still dominates. The recent high of 155.71 on Aug 5 marks the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 156.19, a Bollinger band ceiling. Initial support lies at 154.54, the Aug 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Approaching The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 bear phase
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4275.13 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4238.50 High Aug 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4161.00 @ 05:45 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 4153.0051.15 High Jun 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4096.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4047.50 Low Jul 27
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 continues to retrace as a corrective cycle extends. Futures are approaching support at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4151.15. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback exposing potentially the 50-day EMA at 4096.00. The broader uptrend remains intact with moving average studies continuing to highlight a bullish structure. The trigger for a resumption of this trend is 4238.50.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4481 75.1.00 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4476.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4384.25 @ 06:52 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 4365.25 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 4341.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4320.46 61.8% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 16 rally
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis outlook is bullish however a corrective cycle appears to be dominating for now. If correct it suggests the contract will weaken near-term following the pullback over the past 48-hours. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA reinforcing a short-term bearish theme and this opens the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4341.36. A break of the 50-EMA would strengthen a bearish case. Key resistance is at 4476.50, Aug 16 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V1) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: $75.65 - High Jul 30
• RES 3: $73.55 - High Aug 3
• RES 2: $71.90 - High Aug 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $70.04 - High Aug 18
• PRICE: $67.29 @ 06:50 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $66.91 - Jul 20 low and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $65.75 - Low May 24
• SUP 3: $63.89 - Low May 21
• SUP 4: $63.43 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are weaker and remain in a broad bearish corrective cycle. Attention is the key support that at $66.91, Jul 20 low. A break of this bear trigger is required to strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, just though and a switch would highlight a stronger bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is $71.90, Aug 12 high. A break would ease bearish concerns.

WTI TECHS: (U1) Has Cleared The Jul 20 Low

• RES 4: $74.23 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $71.96 - High Aug 3
• RES 2: $69.62 - High Aug 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $67.48 - High Aug 13
• PRICE: $64.10 @ 07:06 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $63.17 - 1.00 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 2: $61.06 - Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $60.56 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $59.92 - Low Apr 26

WTI futures are lower this morning and importantly have cleared the former key support at $65.01, Jul 20 low. The break of this bear trigger strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, however a confirmed switch to bearish would reinforce a stronger bearish threat. Initial key resistance to watch is $69.62, Aug 12 high. A break would be positive.

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1797.8 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1776.4 @ 07:21 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1689.9 - 61.8% retracement of the 2020 Range

Gold is weaker this morning but remains closer to recent highs. The yellow metal has this week traded through the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1797.8 today. A breach of this average would strengthen a bullish chase and suggest scope for gains towards the key resistance at $1834.1, the Jul 15 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at $1751.7, the Aug 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 04 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.265 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $24.383 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.216 @ 07:25 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.078 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally

Silver remains vulnerable. Bearish moving average conditions continue to highlight a bearish theme and note too that recent price action since Aug 9, still appears to be a flag - a bearish formation. A break and close below the Aug 9 low of $22.626 would confirm a resumption of bearish pressure and open a key Fibonacci support at 20.871, 50% of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 range. The 20-day EMA at $24.383 marks resistance.