MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Reaffirms Bearish Trend Condition

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Reaffirms Bearish Trend Condition

• The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer short-term tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded above resistance at 4531.67, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low. Eurostoxx 50 futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The contract last week traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 4326.50 today. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00.
• EURUSD is trading lower today. The pair has breached a key support that lies at 1.0784. This marks the base of the bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and represents a key pivot point. EURGBP maintains a softer short-term tone and is trading below last week’s high of 0.8611, on Aug 30. The cross has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA - at 0.8590. A break of this average and 0.8611 is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair is trading lower today. Recent gains resulted in a print above the 20-day EMA - at 0.6484 today - however the pair has pulled back from its recent highs and is again below EMA.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Recent gains have resulted in a break of resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1932.2. This strengthens the current bull leg and signals scope for a stronger recovery. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and last Friday’s gains reinforce this theme. Key resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $86.62.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday and remain below recent highs. A strong rally on Aug 23 resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher continues to threaten a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Gilt futures traded higher last week and cleared resistance at 95.11, the Aug 24 high. The break strengthened the current bull cycle and signalled scope for a stronger corrective phase.

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Support Breached

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0876/1.0945 20-day EMA / High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.0749@ 10:02 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 1.0742 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support

EURUSD is trading lower today. The pair has breached a key support that lies at 1.0784. This marks the base of the bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and represents a key pivot point. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.0733 initially, the Jun 12 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0945, the Aug 30 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a short-term reversal.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2746 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.2627 @ 06:00 BST Sep 05
• SUP 1: 1.2548/21 Low Aug 25 / 1.382 of Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

A key short-term resistance in GBPUSD has been defined at 1.2746, the Aug 30 high. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The trend outlook is bearish and today’s move lower has reinforced this condition. The pair has breached support at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low. This confirms a resumption of the trend and opens 1.2480, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Medium-Term Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8632 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8590/8611 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8547 @ 06:13 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 0.8536 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8480 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP maintains a softer short-term tone and is trading below last week’s high of 0.8611, on Aug 30. The cross has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA - at 0.8590. A break of this average and 0.8611 is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme that would open 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. For now, moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 2: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 147.37 High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 146.79 @ 06:37 BST Sep 05
• SUP 1: 145.29/144.45 20-day EMA / Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 142.31 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 29 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

USDJPY is trading higher today. The trend outlook remains bullish and attention is on resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and the bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 148.40, the Nov 4 2022 high. Friday’s low of 144.45 represents the key short-term support where a break would signal scope for a deeper correction and expose 143.46, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 158.33 @ 07:06 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 156.87 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.58 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally

The pullback in EURJPY from last week’s high appears to be a correction and the trend outlook remains bullish. Last week’s fresh cycle high reinforced the bull trend and confirmed a resumption of it. The next bull trigger is 159.76, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 156.58. A clear break of this average would undermine the uptrend and signal a possible short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 1: 0.6562 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1
• PRICE: 0.6426 @ 05:38 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 0.6401/6365 Low Aug 29 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair is trading lower today. Recent gains resulted in a print above the 20-day EMA - at 0.6484 today - however the pair has pulled back from its recent highs and is again below EMA. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, Aug 17 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend. Key S/T resistance is at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3724 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 1.3637 @ 07:38 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 1.3490 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 1.3427 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD is trading higher as the pair extends the bounce from last Friday’s low of 1.3490. The trend outlook is bullish and the focus is on 1.3655, May 26 high. A trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3724 and represents an objective further out. On the downside, a clear break of 1.3490 would signal scope for a deeper correction. This would expose 1.3427, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 131.95 @ 05:01 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 131.70/20 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures traded lower yesterday and remain below recent highs. A strong rally on Aug 23 resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher continues to threaten a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance to watch is 133.45, the Aug 8 high. A break would be bullish. Initial firm support lies at 131.70, the Aug 28 low. Clearance of this level would instead be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 116.260 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 115.660 @ 05:07 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 115.360/210 Low Aug 28 and 30 low / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures remain below the August highs - for now. Recent gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights potential for a stronger correction and signals scope for 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest gains are a correction. Support to watch lies at 115.360, the Aug 28 / 30 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trading Below The August Highs

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.230 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 105.005 @ 05:36 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 104.825/760 Low Aug 30 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures continue to trade below their August highs. Recent activity has highlighted key directional parameters at 104.760, the Aug 15 low and 105.230, the Aug 24 high. A breach of support would reinstate a bearish theme and expose 104.741 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of 105.230 would leave the key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high, exposed. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 97.27 76.4% retrace of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 1: 95.79High Sep 1
• PRICE: 94.40 @ Close Sep 4
• SUP 1: 94.14 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures traded higher last week and cleared resistance at 95.11, the Aug 24 high. The break strengthened the current bull cycle and signalled scope for a stronger corrective phase. The focus is on 95.82, the Aug 10 high (cont). On the downside, initial support lies at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal. Key support and bear trigger lies at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. For now, the latest pullback is considered corrective

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 115.56 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 1113.87@ Close Sep 4
• SUP 1: 113.30 76.4% retracement of the Aug 17 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 113.00 Low Aug 22
• SUP 3: 112.60 Low Aug 17 and a key support
• SUP 4: 112.00 Round number support

Recent price action in BTP futures have resulted in a move above key short-term EMAs and this highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Resistance at 115.41 the Aug 9 high, has been pierced - a clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension higher. The contract has pulled away from its recent high and traded below support at 113.97, the Aug 28 low. A continuation lower would instead expose 112.60, the Aug 17 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Has Pulled Back From Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4358.00/4388.50 Aug 30 high / 61.8% Jul 31-Aug 18 downleg
• PRICE: 4276.00 @ 05:50 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 4264.00 Low Aug 28
• SUP 2: 4225.00/4187.00 Low Aug 24 / 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The contract last week traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 4326.50 today. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, key support lies at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low, A break of this level would be a bearish development and confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4593.50 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4547.75 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 4515.50 @ 06:49 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: 4458.00/4350.00 50-day EMA / Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer short-term tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded above resistance at 4531.67, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, the Aug 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4458.00, the 50-day EMA. A return below the average would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $94.79 - High Nov 16
• RES 3: $92.91 - High Nov 17 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $89.22 - High Sep 4
• PRICE: $88.78 @ 07:01 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $85.00 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.52 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 4: $74.78 - Low Jul 6

Brent futures are holding onto their recent gains. The contract last week cleared resistance at $87.37, the Aug 10 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens the $90.00 handle. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $85.00, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of the 20-day average would expose the $50-day EMA at $82.52. A move down would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Northbound

• RES 4: $94.66 - 2.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $92.17 - High Nov 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• PRICE: $85.81 @ 07:05 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $80.91/78.47 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and last Friday’s gains reinforce this theme. Key resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $86.62, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, initial support to watch is $80.91, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top and expose the 50-day EMA at $78.47.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1953.0 - High Sep 4
• PRICE: $1935.7 @ 07:20 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $1926.1 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1903.9/1884.9 - Low Aug 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Recent gains have resulted in a break of resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1932.2. This strengthens the current bull leg and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention is on $1948.3, 61.8% of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg. It has been pierced, a clear break would open $1963.3, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $23.746 @ 07:25 BST Sep 5
• SUP 1: $23.413 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger

Recent gains in Silver highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The metal has cleared $24.550 - the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg. This strengthens bullish conditions and a resumption of the upleg would signal open $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is $23.413, the Aug 23 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.