MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Remains Vulnerable

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Remains Vulnerable

• A strong sell-off in S&P E-minis this week has resulted in a break below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day EMA strengthens short-term bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension lower. The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has pulled back from recent highs. A key short-term support at 4282.10 remains intact - for now. This is the 20-day EMA where a break is required to signal a short-term top and highlight potential for a deeper pullback.
• EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and breached resistance at 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high and recent Apr 14 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1127, a Fibonacci retracement. A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent price action has seen the cross clear trendline resistance that intersects at 0.8834 - drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has also been pierced. AUDUSD remains vulnerable and printed a lower low Wednesday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at 0.6620, the Apr 10 low and has exposed 0.6565, the Mar 10 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 2.
• Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend condition remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1988.2, the 20-day EMA. The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. The move lower has exposed $73.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break would open $72.76, the Mar 30 low.
• Bund futures traded sharply higher on Tuesday extending recent gains and moved above resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 134.84. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains to 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. Gilt futures have traded higher this week, to extend the latest recovery. The bounce is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on resistance at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 102.22.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 1.1053 @ 05:44 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.0941 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0840/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.0745 Low Mar 27

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and breached resistance at 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high and recent Apr 14 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1127, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting a rising trend. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 1.0941.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2690 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2515/2546 High Apr 26 / High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2475 @ 05:52 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2298 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.2161 Low Mar 20

The primary trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and sights are on 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend for 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2405. The average has been pierced, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2291, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.9007 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8875 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.8856 @ 06:36 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 0.8820/8792 20-day EMA / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 4: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent price action has seen the cross clear trendline resistance that intersects at 0.8834 - drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has also been pierced - on Apr 17. A clear break of the trendline and 0.8866 would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support lies at 0.8792, the Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 137.38 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.47/135.13 High Apr 25 / 19
• PRICE: 133.70 @ 06:46 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 133.02 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDJPY traded lower Wednesday and in the process pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 133.52. The extension lower suggests scope for a continuation and attention turns to a more important support at 132.02, the Apr 13 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 135.13, Apr 19 high, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Below Tuesday’s High

• RES 4: 151.00 1.236 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 1: 148.62 High Apr 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 147.81 @ 07:05 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 146.29 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 146.09 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.88 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 144.59 50-day EMA

EURJPYis firmer but remains below Tuesday’s high. The cross continues to trade above the 20-day EMA which intersects at 146.09. A clear break of this average would be seen as a short-term bearish development and highlight a short-term top. Note too that Tuesday’s sell-off does appear to be a bearish engulfing candle - a potential warning to bulls. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 148.62, Tuesday’s high. A break would resume the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6689 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6633 @ 07:20 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 0.6591 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD remains vulnerable and printed a lower low Wednesday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at 0.6620, the Apr 10 low and has exposed 0.6565, the Mar 10 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 2. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3747 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3651 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3623 @ 07:58 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.3520 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD maintains a bullish tone and is holding on to its recent gains. A key short-term resistance at 1.3648 has been tested - 61.8% of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 1.3747, the top of a moving average envelope study. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3520, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 136.70 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.85 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.74 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 134.75 @ 05:15 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 134.41/133.10 High Apr 21 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded sharply higher on Tuesday extending recent gains and moved above resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 134.84. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains to 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 119.009 61.8 retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 3: 118.515 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 118.280 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 118.030 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 117.570 @ 05:18 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 116.720/420 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

A strong recovery in Bobl futures on Tuesday continues to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The contract has traded above resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 117.437. A continuation higher would open 118.280, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would expose 118.280, the Apr 12 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low, where a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.060 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.849 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.720 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 105.590 @ 05:39 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 105.400/165 High Apr 21 / Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

A recovery in Schatz futures on Tuesday saw price trade above the 20-day EMA at 105.530. An extension higher would allow for a recovery towards 105.849, a Fibonacci retracement point and potentially highlight a stronger reversal set-up. On the downside, key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. This level is the bear trigger where a break would resume the recent downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Watching Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 102.22 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 102.12 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 101.60 @ Close Apr 26
• SUP 1: 100.64/99.73 Low Apr 24 / 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

Gilt futures have traded higher this week, to extend the latest recovery. The bounce is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on resistance at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 102.22. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 102.63, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 99.73, a move through this level would resume the downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Pierces Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 2: 114.94 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 114.61 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 114.18 @ Close Apr 26
• SUP 1: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and a key support

BTP futures traded higher yesterday and in the process pierced resistance at 114.25, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger corrective bounce and open 114.94, the Apr 13 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. A reversal lower and break of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Broader Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4295.00 @ 06:36 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 4282.10 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4206.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has pulled back from recent highs. A key short-term support at 4282.10 remains intact - for now. This is the 20-day EMA where a break is required to signal a short-term top and highlight potential for a deeper pullback - towards 4206.30, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions remain bullish and attention is on the bull trigger at 4363.00, Apr 21 high. A break would open 4381.50, Jan 5 2022 high (cont).

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 4198.25/205.50 High Apr 18 and key resistance / High Feb 16
• RES 2: 4164.25 High Apr 24
• RES 1: 4120.83 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4087.25 @ 06:15 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 4061.11 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4018.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Round number support

A strong sell-off in S&P E-minis this week has resulted in a break below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day EMA strengthens short-term bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension lower, towards 4061.11 next and 4018.75, Fibonacci retracement points. On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 4120.83 marks initial resistance, a clear break above this EMA would ease bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.49 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.06/85.15 - High Apr 25 / 19
• PRICE: $77.94 @ 05:57 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $76.72 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run
• SUP 2: $75.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $74.39 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: $72.35 - Low Mar 24

Brent futures remain vulnerable and Wednesday's sharp sell-off reinforces the current bearish theme. The break lower signals scope for an extension towards $76.72, a Fibonacci retracement point and the $75.00 handle. Short-term key resistance has been defined at $83.06, the Apr 25 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure and this would also highlight a potential reversal.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Impulsive Sell-Off

• RES 4: $85.54 - High Nov 8 2022
• RES 3: $83.38 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 1: $79-18 - High Apr 24 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $74.64 @ 06:49 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $73.98 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
• SUP 2: $72.76 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $71.76 - $61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Round number support

The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. The move lower has exposed $73.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break would open $72.76, the Mar 30 low. On the upside, a key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.18, the Apr 24 high where a breach is required to ease bearish pressure. This would also highlight a potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1999.2 @ 07:14 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $1969.3 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $1948.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend condition remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1988.2, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. This has opened $1949.7, Apr 3 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.018 @ 07:23 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $23.752 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback appears - for now - to be a correction. The break, on Apr 4, of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. This opens $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.709, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.