MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Bear Phase Extends into Year-End

Price Signal Summary – Bund Bear Phase Extends into Year-End

• S&P E-Minis trend signals are bearish and this week’s low prints reinforce this condition. The contract is trading above its recent lows. Short-term gains would be considered corrective with resistance at 3942.55, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above their recent lows. Price tested resistance at 3880.00 on Thursday, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would suggest potential for a stronger recovery.
• EURUSD remains in consolidation mode. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EURGBP edged higher Thursday and briefly topped the bull trigger at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high. The outlook remains positive and a clear break of 0.8829 would strengthen this condition. This would pave the way for a move towards 0.8858, the upper band of a MA envelope and 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD failed to hold on to Wednesday’s high and remains inside its recent range. Support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6664 - remains intact for now. A clear break of this EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback and 0.6629, this week’s low, is seen as a key short-term bear trigger.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal recently breached $1810.0, Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. However, recent gains have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and Thursday’s climb signals an extension of this phase.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend - the current bear phase started Dec 7 and price traded lower once again Thursday. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low, strengthening a bearish threat. Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower Thursday, extending the current bearish leg. This week’s price action has confirmed a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.0816 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• PRICE: 1.0608 @ 05:43 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 1.0528 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.0520 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0443 Low Dec 7 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0334 50-day EMA

EURUSD remains in consolidation mode. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.0736, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is at 1.0443, Dec 7 low, where a break would signal a short-term top. Initial support is 1.0528, the Dec 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Solidifies Into Year-End

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2242/2446 High Dec 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2040 @ 05:51 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 1.1993 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 1.1917 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD traded lower Thursday and dipped below the 1.20 handle. The short-term outlook remains bearish. This follows the move lower on Dec 15 and the latest follow through reinforces this theme. Attention is on the first key support at 1.1901, the Nov 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A turn higher and a break of this hurdle, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 0.8858 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8834 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 0.8814 @ 06:15 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 0.8673/8593 50-day EMA / Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 0.8562/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP edged higher Thursday and briefly topped the bull trigger at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high. The outlook remains positive and a clear break of 0.8829 would strengthen this condition. This would pave the way for a move towards 0.8858, the upper band of a MA envelope and 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8673, the 50-day EMA. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 139.17 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.34 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• PRICE: 132.69 @ 06:36 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 130.58 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 130.41 Low Aug 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.44 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY is consolidating. The trend outlook is bearish following Tuesday's sell-off. Key support at 131.74 was cleared, opening losses toward early August lows of 130.41. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and price remains well below the 20-day EMA, at 136.34. The daily RSI is nearing oversold territory, which suggests progress near-term, could slow down. The overarching theme remains negative for now.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 2: 143.50 Low Dec 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 142.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 140.74 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 138.81 Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 138.06 Low Sep 28
• SUP 3: 137.75 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 137.40 Low Sep 26 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday as the JPY rallied and the cross remains bearish. A key support at 140.77, the Dec 2 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. This marks a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 21 and opens 138.06, the Sep 28 low and 137.40, the Sep 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.50, the Dec 14 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains would likely be a correction.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6767/6893 High Dec 22 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6693 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support.
• SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.6531 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 climb
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD failed to hold on to Wednesday’s high and remains inside its recent range. Support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6664 - remains intact for now. A clear break of this EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback and 0.6629, this week’s low, is seen as a key short-term bear trigger. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3705 High Dec 16
• PRICE: 1.3620 @ 07:55 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 1.3519 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 1.3402/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 3: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is consolidating. Short-term conditions remain bullish. The recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 high, strengthened the bullish argument and this has opened 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, a break below the former trendline resistance - at 1.3402 - would be bearish and expose 1.3385, the Dec 5 low. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.3519, the Dec 14 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 140.78 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 138.64 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 137.76 High Dec 19
• RES 1: 136.32 High Dec 19
• PRICE: 135.18 @ 05:08 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 134.98 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 134.50 Low Nov 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 134.02 Low Oct 21 (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.00 Round number support

Bund futures remain in a downtrend - the current bear phase started Dec 7 and price traded lower once again Thursday. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low, strengthening a bearish threat. Furthermore, a number of additional support points have been cleared. The focus is on 134.50 next, the Nov 8 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 138.99, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Southbound

• RES 4: 119.230 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and a recent breakout point
• RES 2: 118.171 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.090/720 High Dec 21 / 16
• PRICE: 116.620 @ 05:08 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 116.430 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 116.410 2.00 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.047 2.236 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.822 2.382 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing

Bobl futures remain bearish following the recent sharp sell-off that resulted in a break of support at 118.260, the Dec 13 low. Price traded lower Thursday to extend the bear cycle and this has reinforced the bearish threat. The extension signals scope for 116.410 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 118.260, the recent breakout level. The 20-day EMA intersects at 118.171.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 106.335 Low NOv 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 106.237 20-Day EMA
• RES 2: 106.005 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 105.830 High Dec 21
• PRICE: 105.680 @ 05:01 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 105.615 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 105.540 2.236 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.465 2.382 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.405 2.50 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft following the recent sell-off - this resulted in a break of support at 106.335, the Nov 28 low. The move lower Thursday reinforces bearish conditions. The extension signals scope for a deeper pullback that has opened 105.540 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, 106.335 is a firm resistance. A break of this level is required to signal a potential reversal. This would open 106.680, the Dec 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 105.29 High Dec 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 103.67/104.31 High Dec 19 / 16
• RES 1: 101.95 High Dec 20
• PRICE: 101.08 @ Close Dec 22
• SUP 1: 100.47 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 100.00/99.92 Psychological support / Low Nov 8 (cont)
• SUP 3: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 97.33 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 25 bull phase

Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower Thursday, extending the current bearish leg. This week’s price action has confirmed a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. The move has strengthened the current downtrend and signals scope for a deeper pullback - towards the 100.00 psychological support. A break would open 98.15, the Oct 4 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.29, the Dec 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 118.96 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 116.43 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 113.23/115.01 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
• PRICE: 110.83 @ Close Dec 22
• SUP 1: 110.48 Low Dec 22
• SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.46 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 107.51 Low Oct 24

BTP futures remain soft following the latest bearish price action. The contract has recently cleared support at 115.01, the Nov 28 low and this strengthened bearish conditions. Attention is on the 110.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is far-off at 117.93, Dec 13 high. A break would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. First resistance is 113.23, the Dec 16 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 116-18 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: 115-14 50% Aug - Oct Downleg
• RES 1: 114-23/115-11+ High Dec 19 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113-22+ @ 15:51 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 113-09+ Low Dec 21
• SUP 2: 112-11+ Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112-05+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10

Treasury futures remain soft and the contract is trading closer to the week’s lows. Tuesday’s sell-off resulted in a break of 113-22+, Dec 12 low and a key short-term support. This undermines the recent bull theme and suggests scope for a deeper retracement. The focus is on 112-11+, Nov 21 low. Note that the contract has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 113-15. A clear break would strengthen the bear threat. Key resistance is 115-11+, the Dec 13 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Corrective Bounce Still In Play

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3880.00/3908.00 20-day EMA / Low Dec 9
• PRICE: 3842.00 @ 05:43 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3646.50 50% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3580.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3552.90 61.8% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above their recent lows. Price tested resistance at 3880.00 on Thursday, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would suggest potential for a stronger recovery. Gains are considered corrective - for now. A reversal lower and a break of 3753.00, the Dec 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend. The bull trigger is at 4043.00, Dec 13 high.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4043.00/4180.00 High Dec 15 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3942.55 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3851.50 @ 06:38 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: 3778.45 61.8% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis trend signals are bearish and this week’s low prints reinforce this condition. The contract is trading above its recent lows. Short-term gains would be considered corrective with resistance at 3942.55, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle is required to suggest potential for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a reversal lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 3778.45, a Fibonacci retracement.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.37 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $85.19 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $83.85 - High Dec 22
• PRICE: $81.48 @ 06:41 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: $78.28/75.11 - Low Dec 20 / Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Recent gains in Brent futures have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle. Thursday’s gains reinforced this condition. The move higher resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA at $81.95. The break signals potential for a stronger recovery and this has exposed the 50-day EMA, at $85.19 - a key resistance. Initial firm support has been defined at $78.28, the Dec 20 low. A break would signal the end of the correction.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.10 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $86.14 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $79.64/90 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 22
• PRICE: $78.28 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: $73.40/70.31 - Low Dec 16 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.28 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. However, recent gains have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and Thursday’s climb signals an extension of this phase. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA, at $77.00. Price has tested resistance at $79.64, the 50-day EMA and a key hurdle for bulls. A break of this level would strengthen the short-term bullish outlook. Initial key support has been defined at $73.40, the Dec 16 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Sequence Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1824.5 - High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1797.2 @ 07:14 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: $1783.9/65.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: $1752.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal recently breached $1810.0, Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens $1842.7, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a break of $1765.9 would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Trend Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.299 - High Dec 21
• PRICE: $23.763 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 23
• SUP 1: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.781 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Furthermore, this week’s fresh trend highs highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.