MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Building Base
Price Signal Summary – Bunds Building Base
- S&P E-Minis are trading higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the contract is trading at its highs. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- A short-term bullish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play, for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2369, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger corrective phase. The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00. A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
- Gold is trading higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback. The move down is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The latest strong impulsive climb resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high.
- Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
- RES 2: 1.0460 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 1.0418 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0106 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD is trading at its latest highs. The latest recovery appears corrective, however, the pair has recently breached the 20-day EMA and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0383, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0460. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. The M/T trend condition remains bearish.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2537 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2494 High Jan 8
- RES 1: 1.2360/69 High Jan 22 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2336 @ 06:25 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
A short-term bullish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play, for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2369, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger corrective phase and signal scope for an extension, possibly towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2537. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.2100, the Jan 10 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.
EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21
- RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8474 High Jan 20
- PRICE: 0.8444 @ 06:43 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 0.8403/8371 Low Jan 16 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8345 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
- SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Gains this month undermine a bearish theme and suggest scope for stronger short-term recovery. Resistance points at 0.8376, the Nov 19 high, and 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, have been breached, strengthening the current bullish theme. Sights are on 0.8494 next, the Aug 26 ‘24 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8345.
USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 156.46 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 155.86 @ 06:56 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 155.02/154.78 50-day EMA / Low Jan 21
- SUP 2: 154.48 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
- SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.48, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 162.89 High Jan 15
- PRICE: 162.23 @ 07:08 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
A short-term bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact despite the latest bounce. Recent weakness resulted in a print below support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a move above resistance at 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6262 @ 07:40 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. A resumption of the downtrend would open 0.6100. The next resistance to watch is 0.6331, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.4664 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 1.4337 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
- SUP 2: 1.4233 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD price action remains volatile this week. A sharp sell-off Monday resulted in a print below support at 1.4280, the Jan 6 low. The pullback was short-lived and Tuesday’s reversal higher delivered a fresh trend high of 1.4516, before reversing lower. The uptrend remains intact - for now - and a resumption of gains would open 1.4539, a Fibonacci projection. 1.4233, the 50-day EMA, marks key support.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Approaching The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 132.37 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.15 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 131.82 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low, a break would resume the downtrend.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 117.792 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 117.490 Low Dec 30
- RES 2: 117.277 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.170 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 117.000 @ 05:49 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 116.650/280 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A M/T bearish theme in Bobl futures remains intact, however, a corrective phase is in play - for now - and the contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of a correction. An extension higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.277, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 106.758 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 106.695 High Jan 22
- PRICE: 106.645 @ 06:06 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 106.545/435 Low Jan 16 / 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact. From a short-term perspective, the Jan 15 recovery highlighted a reversal and the start of a correction. Recent gains have exposed resistance at 106.758, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 93.09 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 92.38 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 92.23 @ Close Jan 21
- SUP 1: 90.68 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Tuesday’s gains reinforce current short-term conditions. The 20-day EMA, at 91.62, has been breached. The focus is on 92.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce Extends
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.90 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.45 @ Close Jan 21
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
A medium-term bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 5261.57 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 5215.87 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 5204.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5195.00 @ 06:32 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 5113.00/5040.00 Low Jan 17 / High Dec 9
- SUP 2: 5035.87/4931.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the contract is trading at its highs. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 5215.87, a Fibonacci projection point. Key short-term support has been defined at 4931.00, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 5035.87, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6105.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6100.00 @ 07:20 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
S&P E-Minis are trading higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (H5) Unwinding An Overbought Condition
- RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $82.63 - High Jan 15
- PRICE: $79.04 @ 07:08 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: $77.85 - Low Jan 21
- SUP 2: $77.85 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $75.63 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
Brent futures remain in an uptrend despite the latest pullback - a correction. Recent gains confirm a continuation of the bull cycle and an acceleration of it. Key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high, has been breached, strengthening the bullish theme and this opens $83.79, the Jul 5 high. Key short-term support is $77.85, the 20-day EMA. The current pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $75.37 @ 07:16 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: $75.05 - Low Jan 22
- SUP 2: $74.07 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $71.76 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback. The move down is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The latest strong impulsive climb resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open 80.63, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.07.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Extension
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high
- RES 2: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 1: $2758.60 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2750.1 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: $2676.1/2653.4 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Gold is trading higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2675.0, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.974 - High Jan 16
- PRICE: $30.828 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. However, the metal traded higher last week suggesting scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.