MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - DXY Through Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – DXY Through Key Resistance

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are off recent highs and traded sharply lower yesterday. The contract is back below the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4407.78. A deeper sell-off would highlight a bearish threat and the risk of a pullback towards the key support at 4293.75, Sep 20 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures reversed sharply lower yesterday and has placed on hold a recent bullish theme. The move exposes key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low and the bear trigger.
• In FX, EURUSD, remains bearish and traded lower yesterday. The pair is approaching key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and the bear trigger. GBPUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday and in the process cleared a host of key supports. The triangle base at 1.3637, drawn from the Jul 20 low has been breached and this led to a move below 1.3602, the Aug 20 low. USDJPY continues to strengthen and maintains a firm bullish theme following this week's break of 110.80, Aug 11 high. The move above this hurdle paved the way for a climb towards 111.66, Jul 2 high and bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold is bearish and traded lower yesterday. This further confirmed a resumption of the current short-term bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI is softer and pulling away from yesterday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Last week's break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.
• In FI, Bund futures traded lower again yesterday and through Monday's low. This marks an extension of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures traded sharply lower again yesterday as the current bear cycle extends. The contract did find support though at the session low. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off and breach of 126.84 support, Sep 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.1975 High Jun 25
• RES 3: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1755/95 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1684 @ 06:08 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1581 Low Jul 24, 2020

EURUSD, remains bearish and traded lower yesterday. The pair is approaching key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and the bear trigger. A break of this support would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since May 25 and open 1.1621 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is at 1.1755, Sep 22 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term base.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heavy Following A Triangle Breakout

• RES 4: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 3: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3723/79 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3602 Low Aug 20 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.3549 @ 06:10 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 1.3462 50.0% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3430 Low Dec 28, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday and in the process cleared a host of key supports. The triangle base at 1.3637, drawn from the Jul 20 low has been breached and this led to a move below 1.3602, the Aug 20 low. Note too that Cable has also cleared 1.3572, the Jul 20 low. The focus is on weakness towards 1.3462 next, 50.0% of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase. Initial resistance is at 1.3602.

EURGBP TECHS: Holds Onto Yesterday's Gains

• RES 4: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 0.8703 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 - Sep 16 rally
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8641 High Sep 28
• PRICE: 0.8625 @ 06:18 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 0.8526 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 0.8501 Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8479/50 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 10

EURGBP rallied sharply higher yesterday and the cross cleared resistance at 0.8613/14, the Sep 22 / Sep 7 high. This removes recent bearish concerns and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term rally. The break higher exposes resistance at 0.8670, the Jul 20 high and the next important near-term resistance. On the downside, yesterday's intraday low, while far off, is support. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 3: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 2: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 1: 111.66/68 High Jul 2 and a bull trigger / Intraday high
• PRICE: 111.43 @ 06:27 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 110.45 High Sep 8
• SUP 2: 109.99/11 50-day EMA / Low Aug 16 and Sep 15
• SUP 3: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

USDJPY continues to strengthen and maintains a firm bullish theme following this week's break of 110.80, Aug 11 high. The move above this hurdle paved the way for a climb towards 111.66, Jul 2 high and bull trigger. Note that 111.66 has been tested and a clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle that started Jan 6. Key short-term support is at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.99, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Double Bottom?

• RES 4: 131.76 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.75 High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.48 Intraday high
• PRICE: 130.24 @ 06:33 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 129.46 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY traded sharply higher on Sep 23 and bulls have not looked back. The bounce follows a recent failure to clear support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. An extension would signal scope for gains towards key S/T resistance at 130.75, Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. Note that a double bottom reversal appears to be forming on the daily chart - the midpoint is 130.75. Price needs to clear 127.94/93 to resume a downtrend. Initial support is at 129.46.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7346 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7316 High Sep 23 and intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7251 @ 06:36 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 0.7220 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD is consolidating. The pair rebounded last week and tested the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the near-term downtrend. This would open 0.7220 ahead of a Fibonacci support at 0.7194. The bear trigger is unchanged at 0.7106, Aug 20 low - a breach would confirm a resumption of the bear trend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7346, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Provides Support

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2796/2896 High Sep 23 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2675 @ 06:50 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.2594/83 Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2367 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

Recent weakness in USDCAD appears to have found some support just below the 50-day EMA. A bullish trend structure remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2613 today - would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose 1.2494, the Sep 3 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a resumption of gains would again open key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high. This is the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.81 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 170.31 High Sep 28
• PRICE: 169.77 @ 05:22 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 169.46 1.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 168.75 Low May 21 (cont)
• SUP 3: 168.29 Low May 19 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.98 2.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Bund futures traded lower again yesterday and through Monday's low. This marks an extension of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 169.46 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break above this level is required to ease bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 170.31.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 4: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 2: 135.110 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 134.890 @ 05:25 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 134.770 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.660 Low Sep 7 and 8 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.548 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone following last week's resumption of its downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday. This maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 135.540, Sep 21 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Bear Trend Extends

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.230/249 High Sep 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.215 @ 05:21 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 112.140 Low Jul 5 / 6 (cont)
• SUP 4: 112.130 3.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures resumed bearish activity yesterday and remains weak despite finding support. The contract last week breached former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 112.174 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Despite Finding Support

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 3: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 126.44 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 125.57 @ Close Sep 28
• SUP 1: 124.84 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 124.64 1.382 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.19 76.4% retracement of the Oct '18 - Mar '20 upleg
• SUP 4: 123.79 1.764 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower again yesterday as the current bear cycle extends. The contract did find support though at the session low. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off and breach of 126.84 support, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this week's sell-off has opened 124.64 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 127.69, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is seen at 126.44.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Heavy!

• RES 4: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 153.74 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 151.97 @ Close Sep 28
• SUP 1: 151.62 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 151.32 76.4% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 150.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 150.56 Low Jun 30 (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and Friday's move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, reinforced this condition. The contract traded lower again yesterday reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 151.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance is at 154.64, Sep 23 / 24 high. A break of this hurdle is required to ease bearish pressure.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Sharp Reversal

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4115.40/4200.50 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
• PRICE: 4058.00 @ 05:52 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 4030.50 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 3974.00 Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 4: 3941.50 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures reversed sharply lower yesterday and has placed on hold a recent bullish theme. The move exposes key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear trend and signal scope for weakness towards 3962.50 and below, a retracement level. The contract needs to get above recent highs 4200.50, Sep 24 high to refocus attention on the Sep 6 key resistance at 4223.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Bearish Risk

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4481.50 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: 4407.78/4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• PRICE: 4363.25 @ 06:56 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 4334.75/4293.75 Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis are off recent highs and traded sharply lower yesterday. The contract is back below the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4407.78. A deeper sell-off would highlight a bearish threat and the risk of a pullback towards the key support at 4293.75, Sep 20 low. Price needs to break above 4472.00, Sep 27 high to reinstate the recent bullish theme. This would expose the bull trigger at 4359.50, the Sep 3 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $82.61 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $82.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $81.85 - High Oct 17, 2018 (cont)
• RES 1: $80.88 - High Oct 19, 2018 (cont)
• PRICE: $77.73@ 06:57 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $75.60 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 3: $73.26 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.95 50-day EMA

Brent futures stalled at yesterday's high of $80.75 and this level marks initial resistance. A bullish outlook remains intact and dips are considered corrective. Last week's break of former resistance at 76.13, Sep 15 high confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also resulted in a print above $80.00. A resumption of gain would open the $82.00 handle next. Initial firm support is seen at $76.13, Sep 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Off Recent Highs

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $79.53 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $78.24 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.67 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $73.99 @ 07:03 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $73.58 - High Jul 6 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 3: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $67.35 - Low Sep 9

WTI is softer this morning and pulling away from yesterday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Last week's break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on $78.24 next, a Fibonacci projection with scope seen for a climb towards $80.00 further out. On the downside, firm support is seen at $73.58.

GOLD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1760.9/87.4 - High Sep 27 / High Sep 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1738.5 @ 07:19 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $1728.2 - Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold is bearish and traded lower yesterday. The metal last week cleared former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the current short-term bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. A breach of this level would open the key support at $1690.6 further out, Aug 9 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $1787.4, Sep 22 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $23.926 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $23.130 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.286 @ 07:26 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Low Sep 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver continues to consolidate with trend conditions unchanged. The outlook remains bearish following recent sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. Note that a bearish theme was also recently reinforced following a failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. The focus is on $21.899 next, Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.