MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Pierces Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Pierces Key Resistance

• S&P E-Minis traded well Wednesday, briefly piercing the 55-day EMA and touching a new monthly high in the process. This works against the previous sell-on-rallies theme for equities, and heightens focus on a close above the aforementioned 55-day EMA and key resistance at 4204.75, the May 31 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures extended gains early Wednesday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, this week’s price action means prices have taken out resistance at both 3504.00, the Jul 8 high, the 50-day EMA at 3553.60 as well as 3584.00, the Jun 27 high.
• EURUSD stalled somewhat on Wednesday, touching a new recovery high at 1.0273 before stalling and slipping into the Wednesday close. Attention remains on resistance at 1.0258, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY gains last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in bull mode condition, clearly highlighting current market sentiment. AUDUSD traded higher Tuesday and extended the bounce from 0.6682, the Jul 14 low. Tuesday’s gains have also resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6964. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary bear trend remains intact.
• Gold is consolidating. The outlook is bearish and the yellow metal remains in a downtrend. Recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the bear cycle that has resulted in the break of $1787.00, May 16 low. WTI futures traded higher again Tuesday and the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. A recent reversal signal was confirmed on Jul 14 - a hammer candle formation.
• Bund futures came under early pressure Tuesday, prompting prices to edge away from recent highs. Nonetheless, nearby support remains unchallenged and the contract remains in an uptrend, following the recent break of 152.92, Jul 6 high. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Recovery Stalls, But Could Rally Further

• RES 4: 1.0494 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0258 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0210 @ 15:28 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 1.0120 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: c0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD stalled somewhat on Wednesday, touching a new recovery high at 1.0273 before stalling and slipping into the Wednesday close. Attention remains on resistance at 1.0258, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension within the bear channel. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would open 1.0359, the Jun 15 low. Initial support is at 1.0120, Tuesday’s intraday low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 1.2125 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.2040 20-day EMA / High Jul 19
• PRICE: 1.1995 @ 15:54 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 1.1760 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD has recovered from last week’s lows. Short-term gains however are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2040, marking the 20-day EMA as well as the July 19 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term correction.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8541 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 0.8556 @ 15:56 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP conditions still appear bearish despite the latest recovery from 0.8403, the Jul 13 low. The cross remains below the 50-day EMA and scope is seen for a deeper retracement with attention on support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8540, the Jul 19 high. A clear breach here is required to signal a possible reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.48 1.00 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 138.09 @ 16:28 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 137.28 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 136.33 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 135.34/134.27 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 134.10 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low

USDJPY gains last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in bull mode condition, clearly highlighting current market sentiment. The focus is on 139.48, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the psychological 140.00 handle. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at 136.33, marks initial firm support.

EURJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 141.67 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 141.40 Low Jun 24 / High Jul 19
• PRICE: 140.89 @ 16:37 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 137.99/36.87 Low Jul 14 / Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb
• SUP 4: 134.56 3.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY traded higher again Tuesday and the cross has cleared the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and does potentially expose resistance at 142.37, the Jul 5 high. Gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to the recent low of 136.87, Jul 8 low. This support also represents the bear trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 0.6964 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6912 38.2% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.6893 @ 16:42 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Tuesday and extended the bounce from 0.6682, the Jul 14 low. Tuesday’s gains have also resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6964. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary bear trend remains intact. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Flirting With 50-Day EMA Support

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3272 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 1: 1.3166 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.2878 @ 16:45 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 1.2859 50-DMA
• SUP 2: 1.2855 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD remains below last week’s high. The pair has traded below the 20-day EMA as well as the 50-day EMA now, which represents an important support and a clear break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. The trend condition is bullish and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3224, the Jul 14 high and the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Support Untested

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 154.00 Round number
• RES 1: 153.80 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 151.77 @ 20:20 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 150.62/149.75 Low Jul 19 / Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 3: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures came under early pressure Tuesday, prompting prices to edge away from recent highs. Nonetheless, nearby support remains unchallenged and the contract remains in an uptrend, following the recent break of 152.92, Jul 6 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break higher also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the 154.00 handle next ahead of 154.65, the May 27 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 149.75, the July 11 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.280 @ 20:23 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 124.650/123.960 Low Jul 19 / Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

Bobl futures edged lower into the Tuesday close. Nonetheless, a bull cycle remains in play and the focus is on resistance at 126.560, Jul 6 high and the next bull trigger. The recent breach of 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.490 @ 20:24 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 109.230 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures showed through the July 14 low ahead of the Tuesday close before recovering through the late Wednesday session. Despite the pullback, the short-term trend needle still points north though. The contract has recently cleared 109.030, the Jun 24 high. This marked an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Still Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.19 @ Close Jul 20
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of strength would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low. Initial support to watch is 114.08, Jul 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Sinks Into the Close

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 122.85 @ Close Jul 20
• SUP 1: 121.96 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 119.81 Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures traded lower into the Wednesday close as political crisis unfolded in Italy. The close at the lows was a bearish development, turning focus to nearby support at 121.96, the Jul 14 low. This rebuffs the formation of a bull flag and dents the bullish short-term trend condition. Weakness through 121.95 opens key support at 119.81, Jun 28 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3626.27 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 3613.00 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 3562.00 @ 20:31 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures extended gains early Wednesday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, this week’s price action means prices have taken out resistance at both 3504.00, the Jul 8 high, the 50-day EMA at 3553.60 as well as 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. This suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery and eyes 3689.00 - the Jun 10 high. On the downside, the key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2): New Monthly High - Briefly

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3977.25 High Jul 20
• RES 1: 3967.84 55-day EMA
• PRICE: 3966.00 @ 20:33 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded well Wednesday, briefly piercing the 55-day EMA and touching a new monthly high in the process. This works against the previous sell-on-rallies theme for equities, and heightens focus on a close above the aforementioned 55-day EMA and key resistance at 4204.75, the May 31 high. On the downside, a resumption of weakness and a break of 3923.75 low, would instead open key support at 3639.00, Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bounce Fades

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $107.61/114.75 - High Jul 19 / Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.46 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $106.84 @ 20:37 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: $98.17/94.50 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $86.74 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures started the week on a firmer note and traded higher again Tuesday. This follows a reversal signal on Jul 14 - a long legged doji candle pattern. Nonetheless, fading prices early Wednesday confirm short-term gains are considered corrective and the next resistance to watch is $107.55, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower, would refocus attention on the bear trigger at $94.50, the Jul 14 low.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Holding Onto The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $102.29/108.28- 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $100.53 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $99.89 @ 20:38 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: $91.64/88.23 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded higher again Tuesday and the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. A recent reversal signal was confirmed on Jul 14 - a hammer candle formation. Attention is on the next firm resistance at $102.29, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on $88.23, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger.

GOLD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: $1834.4 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1809.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4/64.0 - High Jul 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1699.5 @ 20:40 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: $1697.7 - Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9 2021
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold is consolidating. The outlook is bearish and the yellow metal remains in a downtrend. Recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the bear cycle that has resulted in the break of $1787.00, May 16 low. The focus is on $1690.6 next, the Aug 9 2021 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current market sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at $1769.7, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $20.927 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.731 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18.714 @ 20:41 BST Jul 20
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week. This marks a continuation of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on $17.312 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at $19.731, is a key S/T resistance.