MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities on Backfoot Early Thursday

Price Signal Summary - Equities on the Backfoot Early Thursday

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are running against the previously strong bullish tone, slipping below the Tuesday low in early trade. Bulls need the dominant buy-the-dip strategy to return to keep focus on round number resistance at 4400.00. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) attention is still on the bearish engulfing candle from Jun 18. This morning's break of 4015.00, Jun 21 low reinforces the importance of this pattern and signals scope for a deeper pullback toward 3914.00, May 20 low.
• In FX, the USD is holding its ground and the outlook remains bullish. EURUSD bear trigger has been tripped at the Friday/Tuesday low of 1.1807/8. This opens losses toward 1.1704, Mar 31 low. GBPUSD attention is on a break of Friday's 1.3733 low that would open 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Resistance is at 1.3898, the weekly high. This week's bout of risk-off has worked against the USDJPY bullish condition, with key short-term support at 109.85, 50-day EMA, giving way early Thursday. This opens losses toward Jun 21 low at 109.72 and the 100-dma at 109.14.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1815.0. A clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally. This would open $1833.7, 50.0% of the Jun 1 - 29 decline. Brent (U1) focus is on $77.86, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Watch support at $73.91, the 20-day EMA. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $77.35, 1.618 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. The 20-day EMA at $72.17 marks initial support.
• Within FI, Bund futures are stronger having cleared resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. This signals scope for a stronger rally toward 175.08, the 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing. Gilt futures have topped key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high, strengthening the bullish case. This opens 129.99, the High Feb 24 (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.2005 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1895 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.1795 @ 05:57 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.1782 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded lower again Wednesday and solidified the break of 1.1808, Jul 2 low. The outlook remains bearish and the move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has traded through 1.1795, the Apr 6 low, turning focus to key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1895, the Tuesday high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.3957/1.4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3898/3905 High Jul2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3781 @ 06:03 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the intraday bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

A bearish risk remains present in GBPUSD. Recent gains stalled at 1.3898, Tuesday's high. Last week, price breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low to confirm a resumption of the current bearish cycle. This signals scope for 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. First resistance though is at 1.3898.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8616/29 High Jul 1 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8560 @ 06:07 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8494 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is consolidating just ahead of the next area of support. The outlook remains bearish. This follows the breach on Jun 17 of 0.8561, May 12 low. The break continues to signal the end of the recent consolidation and highlights a bearish theme. The focus is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8616, Jul 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71/111.98 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 111.19 High Jul 5
• PRICE: 110.38 @ 06:27 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 110.21 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 109.88/72 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.19 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

USDJPY continues to pull away from last week's high of 111.66. The current bear leg is considered corrective and bullish trend conditions dominate. This follows the recent breach of 111.12, Jun 24 high and a recent bull trigger. The move higher reinforces the bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 111.98, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A deeper sell-off would expose support at 109.88.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.04/86 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 130.11 @ 06:36 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 130.04 Low Jun 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY is weaker again today and continues to pull away from recent highs. A bearish theme dominates and attention is on the key short-term support at 130.04, Jun 21 low. A bearish theme follows the break on Jun 17 of a bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Clearance of 130.04 would reinforce this bear theme and confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 1 and open 129.35, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 0.7637 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7461@ 06:45 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 0.7445 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7376 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7316 1.382 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing

AUDUSD is weaker and approaching key short-term support. The pair found resistance at 0.7599 Tuesday. The outlook remains bearish and the focus is on 0.7445, Jul 2 low. Last week's move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthemore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode. A break of 0.7445 would open 0.7376, a bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. Firm resistance is at 0.7617, Jun 25 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2627 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 1.2522 @ 06:55 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.2423 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

USDCAD maintains a bullish theme and the pair has traded above resistance at 1.2487, Jun 21 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and also confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 175.88 1.236 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 175.26 High Feb 18 (cont)
• RES 2: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 174.97 High Mar 3 (cont)
• PRICE: 174.56 @ 09:24 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 172.49/35 Low Jul 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.37 Low Jun 3

Bund futures are trading higher again this morning as this week's climb extends. The contract recently cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. The break removes recent bearish concerns and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows has also been reestablished. Attention is on 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont). Initial support is at 173.16.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 135.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 134.670 @ 09:28 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures have maintained a bullish theme this week as the current uptrend extends. Futures have cleared key short term resistance at 134.510 this morning, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recovery that started May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.758, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support lies at 134.070, Jul 6 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Tests Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.210 @ 09:35 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 2: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 3: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures traded higher last week and a near-term bullish theme remains intact as the contract extends its climb this week. The recent S/T recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows suggests scope for a continuation higher. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high has been tested, a break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 would be required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is 112.140.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.89 Intraday high
• PRICE: 129.84 @ 09:44 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 128.94 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10 / Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures are firmer again this morning. Recent gains have resulted in a clear break of the key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important bullish development and signals a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, the move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 129.99, the Feb 24 high (cont). Initial support is at 128.39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Needle Points North

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 152.82 Intraday high
• PRICE: 152.64 @ 09:42 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 151.54 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs maintain a bullish theme. The climb this week has resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on 153.00 and 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at Tuesday's 151.54 low. Key support has been defined at 149.97, Jun 25 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Bearish Breakout

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 4001.50 @ 09:49 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 3990.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3976.00 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have sold off sharply this morning. Importantly, the contract has traded through a key near-term support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish case and reinforces the reversal highlighted by the bearish engulfing candle line on Jun 21. Note price has also traded through the 50-day EMA and 4000.00. This opens 3914.00, the May 20 low. Initial resistance is seen at 4101.50, high Jul 1.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Fresh ATH

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4353.25 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 4330.00 @ 07:51 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 4266.99 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4198.35/26.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis rallied last week to fresh all-time highs and continues to gain ground this week with a fresh ATH yesterday. Bulls remain in control. The contract recently recovered from support near the 50-day EMA and this reinforces bullish conditions. 4322.15 has been cleared, 0.764 projection of the Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. Attention is on the 4400.00 handle. Initial support lies at 4266.99, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Short-Term Top Defined

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.99 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $73.30 @ 07:05 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $72.60 - Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent futures are facing strong selling pressure this week. The move lower has defined resistance at $77.84, Tuesday's high and this represents a near-term bull trigger. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA that intersected at $73.86 yesterday. The breach of the EMA opens $71.24, the Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84 is required to confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.86 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $72.01 @ 06:57 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $71.07 - Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: $69.54 - Low Jun 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: $68.84 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

Brent futures continue to face strong selling pressure with price trending lower yesterday. The sell-off has defined resistance at $77.84, Jul 6 high and this represents a near-term bull trigger. The move lower has also seen prices clear the 20-day EMA. The breach of the EMA opens $69.54, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84 would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1814.6/15.1 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 6
• PRICE: $1797.6 @ 07:19 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone following the recent recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1814.6. The area around the EMA represents a key resistance and a clear break is required to suggest scope for stronger near-term gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal and suggest scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Pulls Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.777/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $25.925 @ 07:25 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $25.529 - Low Jun 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver has recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break of this level neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. If the metal is able to resume its climb, this would open $27.245, Jun 17 high. Thus far, price has failed to hold onto recent gains and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.