MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Press to New Cycle Highs

Price Signal Summary – Equities Continue to Press to Cycle Highs

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow - this is a bullish signal. Support to watch is 5045.84, the 20-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Monday, delivering another fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position and this set-up highlights positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4939.30 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• GBPUSD traded higher Monday, however, the pair remains inside a range and below the late December high. A bear threat is present and a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.2519, Feb 5 low.The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Support at 149.78, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced but remains intact. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA. USDCAD conditions remain bullish. The pair traded higher last week, breaching resistance at 1.3586, the Feb 13 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way to 1.3623.
• Gold traded sharply higher Friday, extending the recovery that started Feb 14. The yellow metal has also started this week on a firm note and price rallied yesterday. Resistance at $2065.5, Feb 1 high, has been cleared. Note too that Gold has also cleared $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. WTI futures traded higher last week and in the process, the contract delivered a print above key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high. The clear breach of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures are trading just ahead of their recent lows. The trend condition is unchanged and the direction remains down. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present despite the latest bounce. The contract traded lower last Thursday and price breached support at 97.10, the Feb 27 low. This highlights a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.0888/98 High Feb 22 and a key resistance / High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.0852 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

EURUSD traded higher yesterday but remains below its Feb 22 high. The pair has traded through the 50-day EMA - at 1.0835. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. Resistance at 1.0888, Feb 22 high, is also an important price point. A breach would open 1.0932, Jan 24 high. For bears, the shooting star pattern on Feb 22 continues to highlight a possible reversal. A stronger move lower would expose 1.0695, Feb 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2709 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 1.2682 @ 05:58 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 1.2580 Low Feb 20
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD traded higher Monday, however, the pair remains inside a range and below the late December high. A bear threat is present and a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.2519, Feb 5 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear threat and open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low, and 1.2432, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance points to watch are 1.2775, Jan 25 high and 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8557 @ 06:31 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

EURGBP is in consolidation mode and holding on to its recent gains but remains below 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend, however, a break of 0.8578 would highlight a bullish development. For bears, a resumption of weakness would expose support and the bear trigger at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.47 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 149.21/148.44 Low Feb 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 147.63 Low Feb 7
• SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.59 Low Jan 16

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Support at 149.78, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced but remains intact. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 148.44. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. The bull trigger is 150.89, Feb 13 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 163.72 High Nov 27 and Feb 26
• PRICE: 163.25 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 162.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 160.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and key support

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recovery from last week’s low reinforces current conditions. Support to watch lies at 162.08, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.84. With a bull cycle still in play, attention is on resistance at 163.72, the Nov 27 high (tested) ahead of key resistance at 164.30, the Nov 16 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 3: 0.6663 High Jan 16
• RES 2: 0.6595/6625 High Feb 22 and key resistance / High Jan 30
• RES 1: 0.6563 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6481 @ 07:33 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 0.6478/6443 Low Feb 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10

AUDUSD is trading lower today and the pair has traded through last week’s lows. This reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3599 @ 07:55 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 1.3490 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3441/3359 Low Feb 22 / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD conditions remain bullish. The pair traded higher last week, breaching resistance at 1.3586, the Feb 13 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way to 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 134.60 High Feb 7
• RES 3: 134.18 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 133.68 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 133.14 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.91 @ 05:24 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 131.62 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 3: 130.47 Low Nov 24
• SUP 4: 129.76 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures are trading just ahead of their recent lows. The trend condition is unchanged and the direction remains down. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Last week’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend with sights on 131.49 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase. Initial resistance is at 133.14, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 117.730 High Feb 7
• RES 3: 117.240 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 117.127 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 116.648 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.290 @ 05:36 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 115.710 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 115.508 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.480 Low Oct 26 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.136 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness confirms once again a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27. Sights are on 115.508, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 116.648, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 117.127, the 50-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 105.641 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 105.430 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 105.367 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.310 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 105.125 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 104.980 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 104.940 2.50 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.880 2.618 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.800 Low Oct 19 (cont)

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week, reinforcing current conditions. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note too that MA studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. short-term gains are considered corrective with firm resistance at 105.367, the 20-day EMA The next objective is 104.940, a Fibonacci projection.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 99.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 98.89 1.236 retracement of the Feb 26 - 29 bear leg
• RES 2: 98.53 High Feb 26 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 98.43 High Mar 1 and 4
• PRICE: 98.03 @ Close Mar 4
• SUP 1: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 96.83 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 96.59 1.00 projection of the Feb 26 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 96.00 Round number support

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present despite the latest bounce. The contract traded lower last Thursday and price breached support at 97.10, the Feb 27 low. This highlights a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. With 97.00 breached, attention turns to the 96.00 handle next. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is at 98.53, the Feb 26 high.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Short-Term Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 121.43 High 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 120.40 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 119.77 High Jan 4
• RES 1: 119.27 High Jan 30 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 117.94 @ Close Mar 4
• SUP 1: 116.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

BTP futures are trading inside a range. The trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains would be considered corrective. Key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low, has recently been cleared. This reinforces a bearish theme and sights are on 115.70, the Dec 8 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 119.27, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Heading North

• RES 4: 5002.0 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
• RES 3: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 4939.30 2.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4930.00High Mar 4
• PRICE: 4905.00 @ 05:55 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 4808.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4734.00 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 4690.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4629.50 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Monday, delivering another fresh cycle high,, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position and this set-up highlights positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4939.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 5002.00. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4808.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5193.61 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5172.19 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 5157.75 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 5125.25 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 5045.84 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4936.50 Low Feb 13
• SUP 3: 4929.61/4866.00 50-day EMA / Low Jan 31 and key support
• SUP 4: 4808.50 Low Jan 19

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow - this is a bullish signal. Support to watch is 5045.84, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement towards 4936.50, the Feb 13 low. For bulls, sights are on 5170.86, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $86.52 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $84.34 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $82.44 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: $80.61/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures have pulled back from their most recent highs. Attention is on the $83.65 key resistance, the Jan 29 high. It was pierced Friday. A clear break of this hurdle would cancel a bearish theme and instead signal a resumption of the bull cycle that has been in place since Dec 13. This would open $85.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $80.61, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $80.85 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $78.22 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: $79.16/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures traded higher last week and in the process, the contract delivered a print above key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high. The clear breach of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is $76.16, the 50-day EMA. A break would instead signal a possible top. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The All-Time High

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2120.0 - High Mar 4
• PRICE: $2114.6 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: $2065.5 - High Feb 1 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $2040.5/2029.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: $1984.3 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support

Gold traded sharply higher Friday, extending the recovery that started Feb 14. The yellow metal has also started this week on a firm note and price rallied yesterday. Resistance at $2065.5, Feb 1 high, has been cleared. Note too that Gold has also cleared $2088.5, the Dec 28 high, and $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg. Sights are on 2135.4, the Dec 4 all-time high. Initial firm support to watch lies at $2029.2, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606 - High Dec 22
• RES 1: $23.974 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.893 @ 08:03 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $22.964/21.883 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

Silver rallied sharply higher Monday and in the process, the metal cleared resistance at $23.534, the Jan 12 high and a reversal trigger. This cancels a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger rally above $24.00, towards $24.606, the Dec 22 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $22.964, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible reversal.