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Price Signal Summary – Equity Upside Persists

  • In the equity space, markets are going from strength to strength, with S&P E-minis hitting new alltime highs early Monday to extend the post-payrolls bounce. Importantly key support at 4110.50, Apr 20 low remains intact. A break would signal a top and also could confirm a break of trendline support drawn off the Mar 4 low. The bull trigger is 4238.25, the intraday and alltime high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have topped the recent high and psychological hurdle of 4000.00. The trend remains up and the focus is on 4087.15, the 61.8% of the 2000 – 2009 decline.
  • In FX, EURUSD is edging off Friday's best levels after rallying Friday and clearing resistance at 1.2150 in the process. The breach negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 31. The move higher has also resulted in the pair trading above the trendline resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high. GBPUSD benefited from broad USD weakness Friday, and has extended gains today to confirm a break of the 1.4000 handle. The move higher negates the recent bearish focus and resumes a bullish theme with attention turning to 1.4103, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY maintains a bullish tone. Attention is on 109.96 next, Apr 9 high.
  • On the commodity front, the Gold outlook is bullish and the uptrend has resumed. This has opened $1851.5, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. Oil is off recent highs but the uptrend remains intact. The Brent (N1) focus is on the psychological $70.00 level and $71.75, Jan 8 2020 high (cont). WTI bulls are eyeing the key resistance at $67.29, Mar 8 high.
  • In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have recently breached 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. This opens 169.24, Feb 25 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Near-term risk in Gilts is still skewed to the downside. The next support and intraday bear trigger is at 127.32, Apr 1 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Upleg

  • RES 4: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.2197 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
  • RES 1: 1.2177 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 1.2155 @ 06:08 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 1.2090 Former trendline resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high
  • SUP 2: 1.2032 0-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 1.1943 Low Apr 19

EURUSD rallied Friday and cleared resistance at 1.2150 in the process. The breach negates recent bearish threats and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 31. The move higher has also resulted in the pair trading above the trendline resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high. Moving average conditions support a bullish theme too. The focus is on 1.2184, Feb 26 high and 1.2243, Feb 25 high. Initial support is at 1.2090.

GBPUSD TECHS: Through 1.4000

  • RES 4: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 218
  • RES 3: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.4187 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
  • PRICE: 1.4046 @ 06:19 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 1.3972 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.3858 Low May 6
  • SUP 3: 1.3801 Low May 3
  • SUP 4: 1.3717 Low Apr 16

GBPUSD benefited from broad USD weakness Friday, and has extended gains today to confirm a break of the 1.4000 handle. The move higher negates the recent bearish focus and resumes a bullish theme with attention turning to 1.4103, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average signals also point north and this reinforces a bullish outlook. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3858, May 6 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On Resistance

  • RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
  • RES 3: 0.8791/8857 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
  • RES 1: 0.8721 High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
  • PRICE: 0.8652 @ 06:25 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 0.8624 Low May 5
  • SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is lower today but remains within its recent price range. Attention remains on the resistance at 0.8721, Apr 26 high. The recovery from 0.8589, Apr 19 low continues to signal scope for an extension higher. A clear breach of 0.8721 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4 and open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement. Key support is at 0.8589, Apr 19 low. A break would be bearish. Initial firm support is at 0.8624.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Trendline Support Again

  • RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
  • RES 2: 109.70/96 High May 3 / High Apr 9
  • RES 1: 109.29 High May 7
  • PRICE: 108.81 @ 06:34 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 108.34/08 Low May 7 / Low Apr 27
  • SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
  • SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY traded lower again Friday and did penetrate trendline support at 108.44. The trendline is drawn off the Jan 6 low. Support though was found at 108.34, Friday's low and a clear breach of this level is required to negate the recent bullish theme. This would expose 107.48, Apr 23 low. For bulls, a break of 109.70, May 3 high, would instead strengthen a bullish case and signal scope for a climb above 110.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Pressuring Resistance

  • RES 4: 133.56 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
  • RES 3: 133.28 1.50 proj of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing
  • RES 2: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 132.39 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 132.27 @ 06:47 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 131.48 Low May 7
  • SUP 2: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
  • SUP 4: 130.05 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

The EURJPY outlook remains bullish with the recent pullback erased. Price is again testing 132.36, a Fibonacci projection. A clear break would reinforce bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies are pointing north reinforcing current conditions. Support is at 130.99, May 5 low. The focus is on 133.28 next, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

  • RES 4: 0.8044 High Feb 2, 2018
  • RES 3: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 0.7923 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
  • PRICE: 0.7855 @ 06:57 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 0.7761 Low May 7
  • SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
  • SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
  • SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD traded higher Friday and is holding onto gains. The April highs have cleared and this sets the stage for a climb toward the 76.4% retracement of the February - April downtick at 0.7895. A break here would strengthen bullish conditions and point the needle toward the year's best levels printed in late February at 0.8007. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.7675, May 4 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Extends Lower With Bears In Charge

  • RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
  • RES 3: 1.2363 20-day EMA
  • RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: 1.2197/2288 High MAy 7 / High May 6
  • PRICE: 1.2114 @ 07:06 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 1.2100 Round number support
  • SUP 2: 1.2081 1.618 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
  • SUP 3: 1.2062 Low Sep 2017 and a major support
  • SUP 4: 1.2036 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and continues to register fresh lows. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and the move lower confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The pair is approaching a major pivot support at 1.2062, the Sep 2017 low. This level will potentially either reinforce the current M/T bear leg if breached or lead to a reversal if the support manages to contain CAD strength.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

  • RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
  • RES 3: 171.30 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: 171.27 High Apr 22
  • RES 1: 170.98 High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 170.15 @ 04:58 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 169.89 Low Apr 4
  • SUP 2: 169.47/24 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 24 and major support
  • SUP 3: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
  • SUP 4: 168.52 Low Mar 20, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures failed to hold onto session highs Friday. Despite last week's gains, a downtrend remains intact and the bearish phase that started Mar 25 has opened the key support at 169.24, Feb 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose 169.00 and below. Initial resistance is seen at 170.98, Apr 7 high. The area around the 50-day EMA at 171.30 represents a key resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) 50-day EMA Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 135.350 High Apr 8
  • RES 3: 135.180 High Apr 14
  • RES 2: 135.045/50 50-day EMA / High Apr 22
  • RES 1: 135.040 High May 6
  • PRICE: 134.780 @ 05:03 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 134.690 Low May 4
  • SUP 2: 134.560 Low May 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures traded higher last week but stalled at 135.040, Apr 6 high. Despite recent gains, a downtrend remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The area around the 50-day EMA at 135.045 represents a key near-term resistance area. A resumption of weakness would again open 134.466, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture and instead highlight a stronger short-term outlook.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Needle Points South

  • RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
  • RES 2: 112.120 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 112.110 High May 4, 5 and 6
  • PRICE: 112.065 @ 05:05 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 112.060/055 Congestion support in Mar and Apr / Low Apr 3
  • SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures stalled last week at 112.110 and resistance at 112.120, Apr 22 high remains intact. The outlook is bearish and attention is on 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April but was probed May 3. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and open 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. On the upside, a breach of 112.120 is required to signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Gains Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 / 18
  • RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
  • RES 2: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
  • RES 1: 128.80 High May 7
  • PRICE: 128.52 @ Close May 7
  • SUP 1: 127.40 Low Apr 29
  • SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
  • SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher Friday. Despite last week's gains a bearish theme remains intact following the breach on Apr 28/29 of support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. This move strengthens a bearish case following the recent pullback from 129.09, Apr 23 high and the area of resistance around the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open 127.32, Apr 1 low ahead of the key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 129.09.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Clears Key Support

  • RES 4: 149.47 High Apr 8
  • RES 3: 148.85 High Apr 15
  • RES 2: 148.65 High Apr 22
  • RES 1: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 146.68 @ Close May 7
  • SUP 1: 146.33 Low May 7
  • SUP 2: 146.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 145.35 0.764 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
  • SUP 4: 144.96 Low Sep 9, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures sold off sharply Friday, breaking key support and this year's low of 146.84, Feb 26 low The clear breach of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since Feb 12. The move lower opens 146.00 next ahead of 145.35, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and this reinforces the current theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 147.79, May 4 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Clears 4000

  • RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
  • RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
  • RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
  • RES 1: 4036.00 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 4026.00 @ 05:56 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 3939.73 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 3882.00 Low May 4 and key support
  • SUP 3: 3859.34 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are firm following last week's gains that resulted in a break of key resistance at 4000.00, Apr 16 high and a bull trigger. A breach of this hurdle confirms the end of a recent shallow correction and importantly a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This opens 4099.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a key support has been defined at 3882.00, May 4 low. A break would signal a top and the start of a deeper correction.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Support Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 4307.05 Bull channel top drawn off the Apr 4 low
  • RES 3: 4261.77 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
  • RES 1: 4238.25 High Apr 29
  • PRICE: 4225.50 @ 08:41 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: 4120.50 Low May 4
  • SUP 2: 4110.50 Low Apr 20 and key support
  • SUP 3: 4045.85 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 4012.50 Low Apr 2

The e-mini S&P rallied further early Monday, hitting new all time highs at 4238.25. The recovery from the Tuesday low provides further evidence that dip buyers remain a key driver for markets, with Friday's payrolls reaction providing further support. Key support at 4110.50, May 4 low and 4117.60, a bull channel base drawn of the Mar 4 low remain intact. This keeps the outlook bullish with the focus on the new all time high at 4238.25 and the bull trigger. A break would open 4239.96, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Bullish Conditions Remains Intact

  • RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
  • RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
  • RES 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 1: $69.95 - High May 5
  • PRICE: $68.73 @ 07:00 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: $67.39 - Low May 7
  • SUP 2: $66.10 - Low May 3
  • SUP 3: $64.44 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: $63.93 - Low Apr 26

Brent crude futures maintain a bullish tone and last week resumed their upleg. Price on May 5, probed key resistance at $69.73, Mar 8 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend and extend the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $71.75, the Jan 8, 2020 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $66.10.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

  • RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
  • RES 2: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: $66.76 - High May 5
  • PRICE: $65.39 @ 07:03 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: $63.90 - Low May 7
  • SUP 2: $62.91 - Low May 3 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: $58.77 - Low Apr 12

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone, having resumed their climb last week. The contract has probed resistance at $66.15, Mar 15 high where a clear break would pave the way for a test of the key hurdle for bulls at $67.29, Mar 8 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. On the downside, firm near-term support has been defined at $62.91, May 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Heading North

  • RES 4: $1875.7 - High Jan 29
  • RES 3: $1855.5 - High Feb 10
  • RES 2: $1851.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
  • RES 1: $1843.4 - High Feb 12
  • PRICE: $1838.0 @ 07:17 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: $1799.1 - High May 4 and a recent breakout level
  • SUP 2: $1779.9 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
  • SUP 4: $1734.5 - Low Apr 15

Gold rallied last week and cleared resistance at $1797.9, Apr 22 high. The gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started early March where a reversal pattern in the shape of a double bottom began. This pattern was confirmed on Apr 8. The move higher paves the way for a climb towards $1851.5, the 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $1756.2.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Extension

  • RES 4: $28.609 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
  • RES 3: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: $28.205 - High Feb 25
  • RES 1: $27.832 - Intraday high
  • PRICE: $27.735 @ 07:52 BST May 10
  • SUP 1: $26.291 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $25.718 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
  • SUP 4: $25.199 - Low Apr 14

Silver remains bullish. The metal rallied last week, extending the current bull cycle that started Mar 3. The push higher strengthens a bullish case and confirms a resumption of the recovery from Mar 31. With moving average signals in a bull mode too, further gains are likely towards $28.328, Feb 23 high. This level represents the next key resistance handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $25.718, Apr 29 low.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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