MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Volatility Seen Persisting

Price Signal Summary - Equities on the Backfoot

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are running against the previously strong bullish tone, slipping to new weekly lows mid-Thursday. Bulls need the dominant buy-the-dip strategy to return to keep focus on round number resistance at 4400.00. Watch support at 4270.00, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) futures have sold off this morning. The contract has cleared 4015.00, Jun 21 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish case and reinforces the bearish engulfing candle reversal on Jun 21. This opens 3914.00, the May 20 low.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD initially traded lower Thursday and cleared the recent lows of 1.1807/8. This confirms an extension of the downtrend and opens 1.1704, Mar 31 low. The late Thursday gains are considered corrective. The GBPUSD focus is on 1.3733, Jul 2 low that would open 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Resistance is at 1.3898, the weekly high. This week's bout of risk-off has worked against USDJPY. The recent move lower has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA at 109.88 as well as the Jun 21 low at 109.72 and 109.19/14, the Jun 7 low and the 100-dma.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1814.6. A clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally. This would open $1833.7, 50.0% of the Jun 1 - 29 decline. Brent (U1) continues to trade lower with the focus on $71.24, the Jun 17 low. WTI (Q1) has cleared its 20-day EMA and attention turns to $69.54, Jun 17 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures are stronger having cleared resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Scope is for a climb to 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont). Gilt futures have topped key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high, strengthening the bullish case. This has opened 129.99, the Feb 24 high (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In Control

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1999 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1895 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.1834 @ 06:08 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.1782 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD outlook remains bearish despite yesterday's gains. This week has seen the pair trade below 1.1808, Jul 2 low. The move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has also traded through 1.1795, the Apr 6 low, turning the focus on key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1895, the July 6 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.3950/1.4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3898High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.3779 @ 06:12 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the intraday bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. Recent gains stalled at 1.3898, the Jul 6 high. The pair has also recently breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low to confirm a resumption of the current bearish cycle. This signals scope for 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. First resistance though is at 1.3898.

EURGBP TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8618/29 High Jul 8 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8589 @ 06:19 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8494 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP traded higher Thursday. Despite yesterday's climb, the outlook remains bearish. The cross did probe resistance at 0.8616 yesterday, the Jul 1 high. A clear break is required to threaten the bearish theme. Attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71/111.98 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 111.19 High Jul 5
• PRICE: 110.004 @ 06:29 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 109.53 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 109.19 Low Jun 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.34 Low May 7

USDJPY traded lower yesterday and continues to pull away from 111.66, the Jul 2 high. The current bear leg is considered corrective. This follows the recent breach of 111.12, Jun 24 high and a recent bull trigger. The move higher reinforces the bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 111.87, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A deeper sell-off would expose support at 109.19.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.04/86 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 130.19 @ 06:34 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 129.63 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY weakened further Thursday, taking out support at the bear trigger of 130.04 on the way through. This reinforces the bearish theme following the break on Jun 17 of a bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The resumption of the downtrend opens 129.35 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are beginning to highlight a bearish condition highlighting the risk of an extension lower. 131.04 marks initial resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 0.7628 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7427 @ 06:44 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 0.7410 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.7374 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.7304 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing

AUDUSD is weaker and traded lower yesterday with the pair approaching key short-term support. The pair recently found resistance at 0.7599, Jul 6 high. The outlook remains bearish and the focus is on 0.7374, the bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. The recent move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs for the pair. Furthemore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode. Initial resistance is at 0.7534.

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2649 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.2532 @ 06:48 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.2423 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

USDCAD maintains a bullish theme and the pair traded higher Thursday, breaching resistance at 1.2487 in the process, the Jun 21 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and also confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 175.88 1.236 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 175.26 High Feb 18 (cont)
• RES 2: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 174.77/97 High Jul 8 / High Mar 3 (cont)
• PRICE: 174.03 @ 05:17 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 172.49/43 Low Jul 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.37 Low Jun 3

Bund futures traded higher yesterday extending this week's climb. The contract recently cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. The break removed recent bearish concerns and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows has also been reestablished. Attention is on 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont). Initial support is at 173.16.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Key Resistance Cleared

• RES 4: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.710 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 134.520 @ 05:22 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 134.340 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures have maintained a bullish theme this week as the current uptrend extends. Futures yesterday confirmed a clear break of key short term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recovery that started May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.758, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.340, Jul 7 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Probes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.215 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 112.190 @ 05:22 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 2: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 3: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures traded higher yesterday extending this week's climb. The recent short-term recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows remains intact and suggests scope for a continuation higher. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high has been probed, a clear break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is 112.140.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.91 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 129.42 @ Close Jul 8
• SUP 1: 128.94 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10 / Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday. Recent gains have resulted in a clear break of the key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important bullish development and signals a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, the move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 129.99, the Feb 24 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 128.39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 152.82 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 152.30 @ Close Jul 8
• SUP 1: 151.54 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.39 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs maintain a bullish theme. The rally this week has resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on 153.00 and 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at Tuesday's 151.54 low. Key support has been defined at 149.97, Jun 25 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Bearish Breakout

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 3982.50 @ 05:52 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 3951.50 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 3976.00 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures sold off sharply yesterday. The contract has traded through a key near-term support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish case and reinforces the reversal highlighted by the bearish engulfing candle line on Jun 21. Note price has also cleared the 50-day EMA and 4000.00. This opens 3914.00, the May 20 low. Initial resistance is seen at 4101.50, high Jul 1.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Approaching The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4353.25 High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4313.00 @ 07:06 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 4271.36 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4202.85/4126.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis have sold off sharply yesterday. Futures are approaching a key near-term support at the 4271.36 level marking the 20-day EMA. A break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper sell-off. The pullback is considered corrective and bullish trend conditions remain intact. The trigger for a resumption of strength is 4353.25, the Jul 7 high. A break would refocus attention on 4400.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.99 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $74.27 @ 06:52 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $72.11 - Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent futures recovered from yesterday's lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish though following this week's reversal lower with key resistance defined at $77.84, Jul 6 high. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA. The breach of the EMA opens $71.24, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84 is required to confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.86 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $73.07 @ 07:02 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $70.76 - Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: $69.54 - Low Jun 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.00 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

Brent futures are likely to continue facing selling pressure with price trending lower again yesterday. The recovery from yesterday's low is considered corrective. The move lower has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. The breach of the EMA opens $69.54, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84, the Jul 6 high would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1814.1/18.5 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• PRICE: $1800.1 @ 07:16 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold is consolidating and maintains a firmer short-term tone following the recent recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1814.1 today. The area around the EMA represents a key resistance and a clear break is required to suggest scope for stronger gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be considered a bearish signal and suggest scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Focus Is On Support

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $25.831 @ 07:19 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $25.529 - Low Jun 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. If the metal is able to resume its climb, this would open $27.245, Jun 17 high. Thus far, price has failed to hold onto recent gains and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.