MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/CHF Nearing Key Support

Price Signal Summary – EURCHF Nearing Key Support

• In the equity space, the S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish and futures remain above recent lows. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract is trading near recent highs Moving average signals continue to point north and the recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger, highlighted an important bullish technical break.
• In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable. Wednesday's price action resulted in a print below the 1.1300 handle and the base of a bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. A clear breach of this area would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.1222 next. GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday as the recent corrective bounce extended. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low. EURCHF showed below major support at 1.0505, the May 14, 2020 low. A break of 1.05 would expose the cross to a deeper sell-off.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish. The yellow metal rallied sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength near-term. WTI futures traded lower yesterday and futures have cleared $78.25, Nov 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition continues to unwind.
• In the FI space, Bund futures continue to consolidate and trade in a range. This recent activity appears to be a bull flag reinforcing short-term bullish conditions. The recent breach of 169.83, Oct 27 high and clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term bounce. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights an uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Base Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1635/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.1386 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 1.1319 @ 06:00 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.1264 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 1.1222 1.618 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD remains vulnerable. Wednesday's price action resulted in a print below the 1.1300 handle and the base of a bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. A clear breach of this area would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.1222 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Any near-term base building however would suggest a possible reversal from the channel base. Initial resistance is at 1.1386, Tuesday's high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3634 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3547/3607 20-day EMA / High Nov 9 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3490 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.3353 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday as the recent corrective bounce extended. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low. The break confirmed a resumption of the bear trend, paving the way for an extension lower. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.3334 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Heavy!

• RES 4: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8493 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8463 - Nov 3 low
• PRICE: 0.8391 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP remains under pressure following this week's sharp sell-off. The key technical break this week has been the move though support at 0.8403, Oct 26 low. The break reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. This has opened 0.8356 next, the Feb 26, 2020 low. Note too that the cross is approaching the base - at 0.8300 - of a broad multi-year range. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8463.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle A Concern For Bulls

• RES 4: 116.87 High Jan 1, 2017
• RES 3: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 1: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• PRICE: 114.22 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 113.76 Low Nov 12 / 15
• SUP 2: 112.75/73 50-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 111.51 Low Oct 8

USDJPY remains in an uptrend and this week's break of 114.70, Oct 20 high confirms a resumption of this trend. The pair however faced resistance during Wednesday's session. Note that yesterday's price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle and highlights a short-term concern for bulls. A deeper pullback would expose key support at 112.73, Nov 9 low. A break of 114.97, yesterday's high would remove bearish concerns and resume the uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Sharp Sell-Off Extends

• RES 4: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 3: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 2: 130.83/131.03 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.12 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 129.28 @ 06:33 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 129.04 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 128.63 Low Oct 7
• SUP 3: 128.33 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 127.93 Low Sep 22 and a key support

EURJPY remains bearish and the cross traded lower again Wednesday. The cross has pulled further away from its 50- and 20-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages is bearish. Price has also cleared 129.24, 76.4% of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally. This opens 128.33, Oct 6 low ahead of a key support at 127.93, Sep 22 low. Resistance is at 130.85, the 20-day EMA and 130.77, the 50-day EMA. A break of this zone is required to signal a base.

AUDUSD TECHS: Arrives At Its Channel Base And Key Support

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7541/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.7279 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 0.7252 Channel base drawn from Aug 20 low and intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7226 Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and a major support

The AUDUSD short-term outlook remains bearish. The pair has traded just below 0.7261, 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally and more importantly 0.7252, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The recent move lower is considered corrective and the channel base represents an important short-term support. A channel breakout though would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Resistance to watch is 0.7371, Nov 15 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• RES 2: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2624 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2608 @ 06:48 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.2493/2387 Low Nov 16 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD conditions remain bullish and the pair itraded higher yesterday. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and the pair has probed the 50% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off at 1.2592. The move higher has opened 1.2664 next, the 61.8% retracement. Further out, there is scope for a climb towards the October high of 1.2739. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2493, Nov 16 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 171.00 @ 05:13 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures continue to consolidate and trade in a range. This recent activity appears to be a bull flag reinforcing short-term bullish conditions. The recent breach of 169.83, Oct 27 high and clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Caught In A Range

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.320 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 135.100 @ 05:23 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade in a range. The S/T outlook remains bullish and attention is on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low and the Oct 4 plus Nov 5 high that has been probed. A clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high and confirm an extension of the rally that started Oct 29. Initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. A breach would sour the current positive tone and instead signal a potential resumption of the broader downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Outlook remains Bullish

• RES 4: 112.475 High Nov 5 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.450 High Dec 11 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.410 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 112.360 @ 05:34 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 112.225 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

Schatz futures remain in its current short-term bull cycle. Recent gains and Monday's fresh high reinforces this theme. Resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high has recently been breached and the break paves the way for strength towards 112.415 next, Aug 5 high (cont). A break of 112.415 would complete a 100.0% retracement of the Aug -Sep sell-off and open 112.450, Dec 11 2020 high (cont). 112.225, the 50-day EMA marks support.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Pullback Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 126.82/127.29 High Nov 15 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 125.81 @ Close Nov 17
• SUP 1: 125.40 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights an uptrend. A resumption of strength would refocus attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. The recent corrective pullback does not appear to be over yet though. Next support is at 124.79, Nov 4 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 151.31 @ Close Nov 17
• SUP 1: 150.72 Nov 12 low
• SUP 2: 149.89 Nov 3 low
• SUP 3: 148.14 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures are unchanged. The outlook remains bullish despite the most recent pullback. Recent gains confirmed a short-term bull cycle and last week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high strengthens this short-term condition. The break opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low where a break would undermine the positive theme. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Northbound

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 1: 4403.50 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 4395.50 @ 05:53 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 4299.70/4223.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 6
• SUP 2: 4215.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract is trading near recent highs Moving average signals continue to point north and the recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger, highlighted an important bullish technical break. The psychological 4400.00 handle has been tested and the focus is on 4420.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at 4215.50, remains a key support.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4692.50 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 4622.04 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4533.70/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

The S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish and futures remain above recent lows. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and corrections remain shallow, reinforcing current conditions. The 50-day EMA at 4533.70 continues to represent a key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Breaches Support

• RES 4: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.14 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $79.83 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 2: $77.19 - 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $75.80 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $74.70 - High Sep 15

Brent futures traded lower yesterday and futures have breached key short-term support at $80.20, Nov 4 low. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition unwinds. Potential is seen for weakness towards $78.42, Oct 7 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $83.14, Nov 16 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish theme.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Overbought Conditions Unwinds

• RES 4: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.97/85.41 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $81.81 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $77.64 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $76.13 - 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 2: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $72.82 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $71.29 - Low Sep 23

WTI futures traded lower yesterday and futures have cleared $78.25, Nov 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition continues to unwind. Potential is seen for weakness towards $74.67, Oct 7 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $81.81, Nov 16 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• PRICE: $1865.3 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $1822.4 - Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: $1802.1/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

Gold remains bullish. The yellow metal rallied sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength near-term. Note too that gold has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high and $1903.8, Jun 8 high. Support is seen at $1822.4, Nov 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.510 - High Aug 5
• PRICE: $25.119 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $24.005/23.020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is unchanged and trading near recent highs. Recent price action had defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. The $24.828 resistance has been cleared and the break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle. This opens $26.002 next, Aug 4 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 is required to instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.