MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Maintains Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary – EUR Maintains Bullish Theme

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis continue to trade below recent highs. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4572.34 today. For bulls, a clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, the Jan 18 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gains stalled at 4250.00 last week, Feb 2 high. Price did breach the 50-day EMA last week - currently at 4203.60. This average remains a key resistance area and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery that would open 4324.50, Jan 13 high.
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a bullish theme following last week’s gains that resulted in the break of a number of key short-term resistance points. The 20- and 50-day EMAs have been cleared and more importantly, price breached the top of its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high of last year. GBPUSD has pulled back from last week’s high of 1.3628 on Feb 3. The short-term outlook remains bullish. Price has recently cleared resistance at 1.3525, Jan 26 high and last week’s gains suggest scope for a climb towards 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. USDJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The climb between Jan 24 - 28 resulted in a breach of former resistance at 115.06, Jan 18 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains above recent lows. The yellow metal remains vulnerable though. The recent bull cycle stalled at $1853.9 on Jan 25 and the subsequent sell-off resulted in a break of its bull channel base drawn off the Aug 9 low. WTI futures traded higher again Friday. The uptrend remains intact - the contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average conditions remain in a bull mode.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend following last week’s accelerated slide. Futures cleared the 168.00 handle, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Thursday and the contract remains soft. The Jan 31 break of former support at 121.93, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1483/84 High Jan 14 / Feb 04 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1432 @ 06:14 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 1.1346 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high
• SUP 2: 1.1267 Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 1.1221/1121 Low Jan 1 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1070 Low May 29, 2020

EURUSD maintains a bullish theme following last week’s gains that resulted in the break of a number of key short-term resistance points. The 20- and 50-day EMAs have been cleared and more importantly, price breached the top of its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high of last year. The clear break of this channel resistance highlights a more significant reversal. The focus is on 1.1558, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is seen at 1.1346.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3712/49 200-dma / High Jan 13
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3628 High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.3530 @ 15:57 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 1.3502/3435 50-day EMA / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 1.3358/43 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 23
• SUP 3: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3221 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD has pulled back from last week’s high of 1.3628 on Feb 3. The short-term outlook remains bullish. Price has recently cleared resistance at 1.3525, Jan 26 high and last week’s gains suggest scope for a climb towards 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3502, the 50-day EMA. Key support is unchanged at 1.3358, Jan 27 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8526 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8472 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8454 @ 06:29 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 0.8406/8372 Low Feb 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8285 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg

EURGBP traded higher again Friday, extending Thursday's sharp reversal. Last week’s rebound occurred ahead of a major area of support, with 0.8300 marking the base of a multi-year range the cross has been trading within since 2016. 0.8282/77 marks the Feb’20 and Dec’19 lows. The reversal from these key chart points, suggest bullish activity will likely persist near-term. Sights are on 0.8480 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.67/68 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg / High Jan 28
• RES 1: 115.43 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 115.30 @ 06:35 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 114.16/113.47 Low Feb 02 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 113.43 76.4% of the Nov 30 - Jan 4 rally
• SUP 3: 113.14 Low Dec 17
• SUP 4: 112.53/112.47 Low Nov 30 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The climb between Jan 24 - 28 resulted in a breach of former resistance at 115.06, Jan 18 high. This has strengthened the recent reversal from 113.47, Jan 24 low and signals scope for climb towards 116.35, high Jan 4 and a key medium-term resistance. Key short-term support is unchanged at 113.47. A break would strengthen a bearish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.92 High Oct 21, 2021
• RES 2: 132.46 1.00 proj of the Dec 3 - Jan 5 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 132.24 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.84 @ 06:41 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 130.38, 50.0% of yesterday's large range
• SUP 2: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 127.39 Low Dec 6 and a major support

EURJPY remains in a bull mode following last Thursday’s strong impulsive rally. The rally signals scope for an extension higher. Price has traded above resistance 131.60, Jan 5 high and a bull trigger. This break confirms a resumption of a bull cycle that started on December 3. The focus is on 132.46 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at 130.38, 50.0% of last Thursday's range.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pulls Back From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7183 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7168 High Feb 3
• PRICE: 0.7088 @ 06:47 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 0.7034 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD has pulled back from recent highs leaving key resistance at the 0.7183 50-day EMA intact. The trend condition is bearish and the recent bounce appears corrective. The recent breach of key support at 0.6993/91, Dec 3 2021 and Nov 2 2020 lows reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This has opened 0.6963/21, the Jul 16 and Jul 14 2020 lows. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2723 @ 06:50 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 1.2650 Low Jan 27/Feb 2
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish. A positive theme follows the recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low. Price has traded above the 50-day EMA and the break has resulted in a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% value. Initial firm support lies at 1.2560, Jan 26 low. First support is at 1.2650, Jan 27 and Feb 2 low. A break would highlight a bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Clear Downtrend

• RES 4: 171.07 High Jan 24 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 170.78 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 169.45 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 167.00/168.81 High Feb 4 / High Feb 3
• PRICE: 166.20 @ 05:09 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 165.72 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 165.24 Low May 7, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 164.82 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 164.33 Low Apr 18, 2019 (cont)

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend following last week’s accelerated slide. Futures cleared the 168.00 handle, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions are in a bear mode too highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 165.24 next, May 7 2019 low on the continuation chart. Friday’s high of 167.00 marks initial resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Heading South

• RES 4: 133.041 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 132.400 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 131.150 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 130.320 @ 05:17 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 130.260 Low Oct 5, 2018 (cont)
• SUP 2: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont) (cont)
• SUP 4: 129.020 Low Dec 7, 2015 (sont)

Bobl futures remain bearish following last week's sharp sell-off and futures are trading lower this morning. Last week’s breach of support at 132.40, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and resumed the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages also point south. Attention is on 130.260 next, the Oct 5, 2018 low (cont). Friday’s high of 131.150 is the first resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 112.017 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 111.896 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 111.870 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 111.375/615 Intraday high / High Jan 4
• PRICE: 111.265 @ 05:30 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 111.208 2.50 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 2: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.090 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures sold off sharply last week as the downtrend accelerated and bears remain firmly in control. The contract is starting the week on a softer note, trading lower once again. The Jan 31 sell-off resulted in a break of 111.890, Jan 19 low and bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 111.208 next, a Fibonacci projection. Yesterday’s high of 111.870 marks initial resistance.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Bearish Trend Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 123.83 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 123.71 High Jan 24 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 122.56/122.72 High Feb 2 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 121.59 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 120.97 @ Close Feb 4
• SUP 1: 120.43 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 2: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 119.55 2.236 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.36 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Thursday and the contract remains soft. The Jan 31 break of former support at 121.93, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This reinforces bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a move to 120.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 122.56, Feb 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Remains Heavy

• RES 4: 146.16 High Feb 1
• RES 3: 145.11 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 144.55 Low Jan 27 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 142.55 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 141.06 @ Close Feb 4
• SUP 1: 140.81 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 140.14/00 Low Jun 10, 2020 (cont) / Round number support
• SUP 3: 139.87 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 138.09 1.50 proj of the Dec 14 - Jan 19 - 31 price swing

A sharp sell-off dominated price action in BTP futures late last week. The break below former support at 144.55, Jan 27 low confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 140.00 psychological handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at the recent breakout level of 144.55. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): 50-Day EMA Is Still A Key Pivot resistance

• RES 4: 4808.25 All-time high on Jan 4
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4569.21/4586.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4492.50 @ 06:51 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 4395.50 Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally
• SUP 4: 4126.75 Low Jun 21, 2021 (cont)

S&P E-minis continue to trade below recent highs. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4572.34 today. For bulls, a clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, the Jan 18 high. On the downside, a stronger bearish reversal would instead refocus attention on the 4212.75 low from Jan 24. This remains the key bear trigger for a resumption of bearish activity.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4392.50 High Nov 18 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 1: 4203.60/50.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4095.50 @ 06:05 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: 4056.00/3990.50 Low Feb 4 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 3980.00 Low Nov 30 2021
• SUP 3: 3935.00 Low Oct 6 2021
• SUP 4: 3895.00 Low Jul 19 2021 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures gains stalled at 4250.00 last week, Feb 2 high. Price did breach the 50-day EMA last week - currently at 4203.60. This average remains a key resistance area and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery that would open 4324.50, Jan 13 high. A stronger reversal lower though would refocus attention on 3990.50, Jan 24 low and the trigger for a resumption of recent bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: $96.09 - 2.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $94.82 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $94.00 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $93.62 @ 07:00 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: $91.20/87.72 - Low Feb 4 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $87.05/84.22 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: $82.70 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $79.95 - Low Jan 10

Brent futures continue to trade higher and trend conditions remain bullish. The contract recently resumed its uptrend following the break of $88.69, Jan 20 high. This means that a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Moving average conditions are in a bull mode too. The $90.00 handle has been cleared and the focus is on $94.82, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $87.72, the Feb 1 low.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Firm Above The Psychological $90.00 Handle

• RES 4: $95.70 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number support
• RES 2: $94.13 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $93.17 - High Jan 4
• PRICE: $92.13 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: $90.07/86.34 - Low Feb 4 / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: $85.26/81.90 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: $80.41/77.34 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: $74.01 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded higher again Friday. The uptrend remains intact - the contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average conditions remain in a bull mode. Futures have cleared the psychological $90.00 handle. This opens $94.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is seen at $86.34, the Jan 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $1877.2 - High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1871.0 - High Nov 18
• RES 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1822.2 - High Jan 27
• PRICE: $1811.1 @ 07:18 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1775.7 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6

Gold remains above recent lows. The yellow metal remains vulnerable though. The recent bull cycle stalled at $1853.9 on Jan 25 and the subsequent sell-off resulted in a break of its bull channel base drawn off the Aug 9 low. This highlights a bearish threat plus a more significant reversal and signals potential for weakness towards $1775.7, the Dec 16 low. For bulls, a break of $1853.9 is required to reinstate the recent bull theme.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 3: $24.700 - High Jan 20
• RES 2: $23.994 - High Jan 25
• RES 1: $23.080/599 - 50-day EMA / High Jan 27
• PRICE: $22.770 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 7
• SUP 1: $22.008 - Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver remains vulnerable. The metal reversed a recent bullish theme following its recent sharp sell-off and breached $22.809, Jan 17 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has opened $21.949, the Jan 7 low. A break would reinforce the bearish threat and expose $21.427/423, the Dec 15 and Sep 29 lows and a key support zone. Initial resistance is seen at $23.080, the 50-day EMA.