MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Resumes Short-Term Recovery

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Resumes Short-Term Recovery

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday before finding resistance at the session high. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Resistance to watch is unchanged at 3950.00, the Jun 27 high, and the 50-day EMA at 3952.01. EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a firmer note. Short-term gains are still considered corrective. Yesterday’s climb however resulted in a break of resistance at 3504.00, the Jul 8 high.
• EURUSD has resumed its short-term recovery this morning and the pair has traded through Monday’s high. Attention is on resistance at 1.0258, the 20-day EMA. A breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension within the bear channel. USDJPY gains last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD has recovered from recent lows. Gains though are considered corrective. The pair traded to a fresh trend low of 0.6682 last week on Jul 14 and recent weakness reinforces bearish conditions.
• Gold is consolidating. The outlook is bearish and the yellow metal remains in a downtrend. Recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the bear cycle that has resulted in the break of $1787.00, May 16 low. WTI futures traded higher Monday and the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. A recent reversal signal was confirmed on Jul 14 - a hammer candle formation.
• Bund futures came under early pressure Tuesday, prompting prices to edge away from recent highs. Nonetheless, nearby support remains unchallenged and the contract remains in an uptrend, following the recent break of 152.92. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Extends Bounce From Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 1.0494 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0258 20-day EMA High Jul 18
• PRICE: 1.0230 @ 09:45 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.0120 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD has resumed its short-term recovery this morning and the pair has traded through Monday’s high. Attention is on resistance at 1.0258, the 20-day EMA. A breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension within the bear channel. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would open 1.0359, the Jun 15 low. Initial support is at 1.0120, today’s intraday low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 1.2125 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.2040 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1953 @ 06:18 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.1760 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD has recovered from last week’s lows. Short-term gains however are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2040, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term correction.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8517 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8487 @ 06:36 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP conditions still appear bearish despite the latest recovery from 0.8403, the Jul 13 low. The cross remains below the 50-day EMA and scope is seen for a deeper retracement with attention on support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8517, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.48 1.00 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 137.95 @ 06:43 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 137.28 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 136.33 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 135.34/134.27 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 134.10 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low

USDJPY gains last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in bull mode condition, clearly highlighting current market sentiment. The focus is on 139.48, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the psychological 140.00 handle. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at 136.33, marks initial firm support.

EURJPY TECHS: Trades Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 141.40 Low Jun 24
• RES 1: 140.80 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 140.05 @ 06:53 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 137.99/36.87 Low Jul 14 / Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb
• SUP 4: 134.56 3.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY traded higher Monday and the cross has cleared the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and does potentially expose resistance at 142.37, the Jul 5 high. Gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to the recent low of 136.87, Jul 8 low. This support also represents the bear trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.6964 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6874 High Jul 8
• RES 1: 0.6857 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6850 @ 07:02 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD has recovered from recent lows. Gains though are considered corrective. The pair traded to a fresh trend low of 0.6682 last week on Jul 14 and recent weakness reinforces bearish conditions. Support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle, have been breached. This sets the scene for a move towards 0.6647 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, next resistance is seen at 0.6874, the Jul high.

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3272 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 1: 1.3166 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.2947 @ 08:12 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.2899 Low Jul 18
• SUP 2: 1.2879 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD remains below last week’s high. The pair has traded below the 20-day EMA and attention is on support at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 1.2879. It represents an important support and a clear break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. The trend condition is bullish and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3224, the Jul 14 high and the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Edging Lower

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 154.00 Round number
• RES 1: 153.80 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 151.56 @ 09:38 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 150.98/149.75 50-day EMA / Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 3: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures came under early pressure Tuesday, prompting prices to edge away from recent highs. Nonetheless, nearby support remains unchallenged and the contract remains in an uptrend, following the recent break of 152.92, Jul 6 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break higher also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the 154.00 handle next ahead of 154.65, the May 27 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 149.75, the July 11 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.610 @ 05:12 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 124.903/123.960 20-day EMA / Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

Bobl futures are consolidating. A bull cycle remains in play and the focus is on resistance at 126.560, Jul 6 high and the next bull trigger. The recent breach of 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.580 @ 05:25 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 109.270 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. The short-term trend needle still points north though. The contract has recently cleared 109.030, the Jun 24 high. This marked an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Still Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.01 @ Close Jul 18
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of strength would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low. Initial support to watch is 114.08, Jul 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.57 @ Close Jul 18
• SUP 1: 121.96 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 119.81 Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures traded lower last Thursday but did find support at the day low and price remains inside its recent range. The current consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation and the short-term trend condition is bullish, reinforced by the recent breach of 122.80, the Jun 24 high. The break signals potential for a stronger correction and attention is on 127.79, the May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is 119.81, Jun 28 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3584.00 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3527.00/3553.60 High Jul 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3474.00 @ 05:35 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a firmer note. Short-term gains are still considered corrective. Yesterday’s climb however resulted in a break of resistance at 3504.00, the Jul 8 high. The breach exposes the 50-day EMA at 3553.60 and 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. A break of this zone is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, the key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low.

• E-MINI S&P (U2): Remains Below Key Resistance
• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3952.01 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3845.00 @ 06:58 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday before finding resistance at the session high. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Resistance to watch is unchanged at 3950.00, the Jun 27 high, and the 50-day EMA at 3952.01. A clear breach of this zone would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, a resumption of weakness and a break of 3923.75 low, would instead open key support at 3639.00, Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $107.55/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $106.48 - High Jul 18
• PRICE: $105.88 @ 07:07 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $98.17/94.50 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $86.74 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures started the week on a firmer note and traded higher Monday. This follows a reversal signal on Jul 14 - a long legged doji candle pattern. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the next resistance to watch is $107.55, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower, would refocus attention on the bear trigger at $94.50, the Jul 14 low.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $104.94/111.45 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $103.43 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $102.69 @ 07:16 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $94.57/90.56 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14a and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $90.13 - 1.236 projection of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 3: $86.81 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $85.03 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Monday and the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. A recent reversal signal was confirmed on Jul 14 - a hammer candle formation. Attention is on the next firm resistance at $104.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on $90.56, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger.

GOLD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: $1834.4 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1809.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4/64.0 - High Jul 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1709.0 @ 07:59 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $1697.7 - Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9 2021
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold is consolidating. The outlook is bearish and the yellow metal remains in a downtrend. Recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the bear cycle that has resulted in the break of $1787.00, May 16 low. The focus is on $1690.6 next, the Aug 9 2021 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current market sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at $1769.7, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $20.927 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.731 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18. 777 @ 08:05 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week. This marks a continuation of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on $17.312 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at $19.731, is a key S/T resistance.