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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Undergoes Bull Trend Extension

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Undergoes Bull Trend Extension

  • A strong rally in the S&P E-Minis Tuesday saw price trade above 4142.50, Dec 1 high. The contract failed to hold onto its highs and pulled back sharply. Despite the move lower, the trend outlook is bullish and yesterday’s high print maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday. The break higher resulted in a print above resistance at 4021.00, Dec 1 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and a clear breach would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 4049.50.
  • EURUSD traded higher Tuesday and in the process cleared resistance at 1.0595, the Dec 5 high. The pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and cancels a recent bearish candle pattern - a shooting star. EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and price is trading just ahead of support at 0.8550/47, the 200-dma and Dec 1 low. Weakness through this zone would take the cross to its lowest levels since late August. The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and the pair traded higher Tuesday, breaking above the bull trigger at the Dec 5 high of 0.6851. The breach resumes the uptrend and opens 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Tuesday’s gains have reinforced this condition. The yellow metal traded through resistance at 1810.0 yesterday, the Dec 5 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. However, the latest recovery and yesterday’s move higher, suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle.
  • The Bund futures trend direction remains up and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. Gilt futures traded lower again Tuesday to extend the pullback from last week’s highs. The break of support at 104.79, Nov 30 low, exposes a firmer support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Trend Extension

  • RES 4: 1.0774 High Jun 9
  • RES 3: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.0731 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 1.0673 High Dec 13
  • PRICE: 1.0627 @ 05:38 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 1.0506/0443 Low Dec 12 / 7 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 2: 1.0424/0291 20-day EMA / Low Nov 30
  • SUP 3: 1.0243 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 1.0223 Low Nov 21

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday and in the process cleared resistance at 1.0595, the Dec 5 high. The pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and cancels a recent bearish candle pattern - a shooting star. This sets the scene for 1.0736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.0443, Dec 7 low, where a break would signal a short-term top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend High

  • RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
  • RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
  • RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.2444 High Dec 13
  • PRICE: 1.2353 @ 05:47 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 1.2209/2107 Low Dec 9 and 12 / Low Dec 7
  • SUP 2: 1.2079 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 1.1837 50-day EMA

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforced this theme. The pair cleared resistance at 1.2345, the Dec 5 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short term trend support has been defined at 1.2107, the Dec 7 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Holds For Now

  • RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
  • RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 0.8778 High Nov 16
  • RES 1: 0.8655 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:00 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 0.8550/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
  • SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
  • SUP 4: 0.8449 1.236 proj of the Oct 12 - 31 - Nov 9 price swing

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and price is trading just ahead of support at 0.8550/47, the 200-dma and Dec 1 low. Weakness through this zone would take the cross to its lowest levels since late August. A break would also resume the downtrend and pave the way for a move towards 0.8522 initially, the Aug 30 low. On the upside the 50-day EMA, at 0.8655, marks a key short-term resistance. A break would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: 140.64 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 138.31 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 137.97 High Dec 13
  • PRICE: 135.48 @ 06:21 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 134.66/133.63 Dec 13 low / 2 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 132.56 Low Aug 15
  • SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
  • SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2

USDJPY remains below Tuesday’s high of 137.97. The move lower yesterday signals the end of the recent corrective phase that started on Dec 2. A continuation lower would open 133.63, the Dec 2 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend and pave the way for a move towards 132.56, the Aug 15 low. The 20-day EMA, at 138.31, remains the first key short-term resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

  • RES 4: 147.10 High Nov 9
  • RES 3: 146.40 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 146.14 High Nov 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 145.35 High Dec 13
  • PRICE: 144.09 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 143.53 Low Dec 13
  • SUP 2: 143.10 Low Dec 6
  • SUP 3: 140.77 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg

EURJPY faced resistance Tuesday and retraced Monday’s bullish session. The outlook is bullish despite the pullback. This week has seen the cross clear trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 21 high, as well as last week’s highs. The break strengthens bullish conditions and opens 146.14, the Nov 23 high and the next important resistance. Key support has been defined at 140.77, the Dec 2 low. Initial firm support lies at 143.10, Dec 6 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The Bull Trigger

  • RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
  • RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
  • RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
  • RES 1: 0.6893 High Dec 12
  • PRICE: 0.6849 @ 06:41 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 0.6717 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 0.6648/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
  • SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
  • SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and the pair traded higher Tuesday, breaking above the bull trigger at the Dec 5 high of 0.6851. The breach resumes the uptrend and opens 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the key support level to watch is 0.6648, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial support to watch is 0.6717, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Lies At The Former Trendline Resistance

  • RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
  • RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
  • RES 1: 1.3700 High Dec 7
  • PRICE: 1.3558 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 1.3481/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
  • SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
  • SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD faded off recent highs Tuesday, bringing former trendline resistance at 1.3481 into view. A bullish theme remains in place while price trades above 1.3481 - the trendline break last week strengthened bullish conditions and a resumption of gains would open 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, a break below former-trendline resistance would flip the outlook more negative and expose 1.3385, the Dec 5 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Pullback Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: 144.46 1.50 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
  • RES 3: 143.68 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
  • RES 2: 143.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 141.94/142.91 High Dec 9 / 7 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 140.65 @ 05:08 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 139.77 Low Dec 12
  • SUP 2: 139.62 Low Nov 29
  • SUP 3: 139.13 Low Nov 28 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 138.34 Low Nov 18

The Bund futures trend direction remains up and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. This signals a stronger reversal. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows also remains intact. A resumption of gains would open 143.00. Firm support has been defined at 139.13, Nov 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: 120.765 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 3: 120.568 1.382 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: 120.324 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 1: 119.580/120.150 High Dec 9 / 6 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 119.070 @ 05:12 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 118.600 Low Dec 12
  • SUP 2: 118.500 Low Nov 29
  • SUP 3: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 118.170 Low Nov 16

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The trend condition is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. This signals a stronger reversal. The print above 120.130 last week, Dec 2 high, signals a continuation of the uptrend and opens 120.324, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch is at 118.260, the Nov 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Support Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 107.023 1.764 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 106.920 1.50 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 1: 106.680/875 High Dec 13 / 2 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 106.545 @ 05:26 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 106.365 Low Dec 12
  • SUP 2: 106.335 Low Nov 28 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 106.310 Low Nov 11
  • SUP 4: 106.215 Low Nov 9

Schatz futures traded higher Tuesday. The contract remains above support at the Nov 28 low of 106.335. The short-term outlook is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. 106.335 marks a key short-term support and if breached would undermine the recent bullish theme. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 106.875, the Dec 2 high and a bull trigger. A break of 106.875 resumes the recent uptrend.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Retracement Extends

  • RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
  • RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 105.51/106.95 High Dec 13 / 2
  • PRICE: 104.61 @ Close Dec 13
  • SUP 1: 104.20 Low Dec 13
  • SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower again Tuesday to extend the pullback from last week’s highs. The break of support at 104.79, Nov 30 low, exposes a firmer support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 103.00. On the upside, the bull trigger is unchanged at 107.06, the Nov 24 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Intact Despite Latest Pullback

  • RES 4: 121.35 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
  • RES 3: 120.09 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
  • RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 117.93/118.96 High Dec 13 / 7 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 116.95 @ Close Dec 13
  • SUP 1: 116.04 Low Dec 13
  • SUP 2: 115.01 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 114.49 Low Nov 17
  • SUP 4: 113.77 Low Nov 15

BTP futures trend signals remain bullish and the latest pullback is still considered corrective. The contract recently breached 118.12, the Dec 2 high. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb towards the 120.00 handle. On the downside, key support short-term to watch, has been defined at 115.01, the Nov 28 low.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Fresh Trend High Print

  • RES 4: 116-12 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
  • RES 2: 115-14 50% Aug - Oct Downleg
  • RES 1: 115-11 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 114-30 @ 16:33 GMT Dec 13
  • SUP 1: 113-22+/113-06+ Low Dec 122 / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 112-11+ Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 112-05+ Low Nov 14
  • SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10

Treasury futures rallied following Tuesday’s CPI release. The move higher resulted in a print above resistance at 115-06+, the Dec 7 high and the bull trigger. A clear break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 115-26, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113-22+, the Dec 12 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Pierces Key Short-Term Resistance

  • RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2 (cont)
  • RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
  • RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
  • RES 1: 4037.00/4049.50 High Dec 13 / High Feb 23 (cont)
  • PRICE: 3986.00 @ 05:39 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 3903.00/3840.00 Low Dec 8 and a key support / Low Nov 17
  • SUP 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17
  • SUP 3: 3784.90 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday. The break higher resulted in a print above resistance at 4021.00, Dec 1 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and a clear breach would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 4049.50, the Feb 23 high (cont). Key short-term support has been defined at 3903.00, the Dec 8 low, where a break would instead highlight a possible short-term reversal.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Trend Needle Points North

  • RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16 and a key M/T resistance
  • RES 3: 4250.00 High Aug 26
  • RES 2: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 4180.00 High Dec 13
  • PRICE: 4065.75 @ 07:13 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: 3957.96/3945.75 50-day EMA / Low Dec 7 and key support
  • SUP 2: 3782.750 Low Nov 9
  • SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
  • SUP 4: 3670.00 Low Oct 21

A strong rally in the S&P E-Minis Tuesday saw price trade above 4142.50, Dec 1 high. The contract failed to hold onto its highs and pulled back sharply. Despite the move lower, the trend outlook is bullish and yesterday’s high print maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 4194.25, the Sep 13 high. Key support has been defined at 3945.75, Dec 7 low. This is just below the 50-day EMA, at 3957.96.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Recovers From Recent Lows

  • RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
  • RES 3: $86.60/89.37 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 1
  • RES 2: $83.08 - 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: $81.28 - High Dec 13
  • PRICE: $80.34 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: $75.11 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
  • SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
  • SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish. However, following the recovery Monday, it is possible that a short-term correction will result in an extension higher near-term. Yesterday’s gains reinforce this outlook and a recovery is allowing an oversold trend reading to unwind. The next resistance is at $83.08, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, last Friday’s low of $75.11 is the bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Corrective Phase Extends

  • RES 4: $89.20 - High Nov 11
  • RES 3: $86.90 - High Nov 16
  • RES 2: $81.16 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: $76.37/77.52 - High Dec 13 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: $75.31 @ 07:44 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: $70.08 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
  • SUP 3: $66.06 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
  • SUP 4: $63.80 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. However, the latest recovery and yesterday’s move higher, suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Attention is on resistance at $77.52, the 20-day EMA - a key short-term hurdle for bulls - where a break would signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at $70.08, the Dec 9 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Trend High

  • RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
  • RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
  • RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
  • RES 1: $1824.5 - High Dec 13
  • PRICE: $1810.4 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: $1768.1/65.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5
  • SUP 2: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
  • SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Tuesday’s gains have reinforced this condition. The yellow metal traded through resistance at 1810.0 yesterday, the Dec 5 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signal scope for a climb towards $1842.7, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at $1765.9, the Dec 5 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

  • RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
  • RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
  • RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
  • RES 1: $24.129 - High Dec 13
  • PRICE: $23.696 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 14
  • SUP 1: $22.025 - Low Dec 6 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 2: $21.098/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
  • SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
  • SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the metal traded higher Tuesday. The print last Friday above $23.517, Dec 5 high, highlights a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Recent gains pave the way for a move towards the $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $22.025, the Dec 6 low.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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