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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx50 Trades Through Bear Trigger

Price Signal Summary – EuroStoxx50 Trades Through Bear Trigger

  • S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone. Attention is on 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4197.75, the May 24 low. The contract continues to trade below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4410.92. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger.
  • EURUSD continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the reversal lower from 1.0640, Oct 12 high, suggests the end of the recent corrective cycle between Oct 3 - 12. EURGBP traded higher last Thursday and in the process breached key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger. That break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and reinforced the bullish importance of the recent break of trendline resistance. A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support and bear trigger, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Gold traded higher last week, extending the reversal from $1810.5, the Oct 6 low. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. WTI futures traded higher last week and the contract remains in bull-mode condition. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger.
  • Bund futures remain soft following last week’s move lower. The pullback from 130.20, the Oct 12 high highlights the end of the recent corrective recovery between Oct 4 - 12. Note that the medium-term trend direction is down and moving average studies continue to reflect this. Gilt futures traded lower last week and the contract maintains a bearish theme. Price has traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a move towards 90.38.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Continues to Point South

  • RES 4: 1.0769 High Sep 12
  • RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
  • RES 2: 1.0677 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.0640 High Oct 12
  • PRICE: 1.0575 @ 05:54 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 1.0496/0448 Low Oct 13 / 03 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 1.0356 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the reversal lower from 1.0640, Oct 12 high, suggests the end of the recent corrective cycle between Oct 3 - 12. The focus is on 1.0448, Oct 3 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.0406, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a break of 1.0640, is required to signal scope for a stronger correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

  • RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 1.2444 200-dma
  • RES 2: 1.2361 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.2220/2337 20-day EMA / High Oct 11 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.2150 @ 06:09 Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
  • SUP 2: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Mar 10

GBPUSD is consolidating, however, the trend condition remains bearish. The reversal from recent highs signals the end of a corrective phase between Oct 4 - 11 and this has exposed the bear trigger at 1.2037, the Oct 4 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective phase.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

  • RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
  • RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
  • RES 2: 0.8768 High May 5
  • RES 1: 0.8741 High Oct 20
  • PRICE: 0.8706 @ 06:26 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 0.8660 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 0.8633/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

EURGBP traded higher last Thursday and in the process breached key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger. That break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and reinforced the bullish importance of the recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Feb 3 high. A continuation higher would open 0.8793,. A Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8660, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing The 150.00 Handle Once Again

  • RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
  • RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
  • RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
  • RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 149.94 @ 06:35 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 149.16/147.43 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3 and key support
  • SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
  • SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
  • SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY continues to trade just below its recent trend highs and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment and attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). A clear break of 150.00 would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a breach of 147.43, Oct 3 low, would mark an important bearish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Most Recent Gains

  • RES 4: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
  • RES 2: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 159.05 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 158.62 @ 07:02 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 157.85 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
  • SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
  • SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY is holding on to its most recent gains and has traded higher today. Resistance at 158.65, the Sep 13 high, has been breached. The break highlights a range breakout and exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 159.76, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 154.46, the Oct 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead strengthen a bearish case and open 153.39, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

  • RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
  • RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
  • RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
  • RES 1: 0.6393 High Oct 18
  • PRICE: 0.6309 @ 08:01 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
  • SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
  • SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support and bear trigger, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.6393, the Oct 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains In Place

  • RES 4: 1.3926 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
  • RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.3722 @ 08:05 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
  • SUP 2: 1.3565 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
  • SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend outlook is unchanged and conditions remain bullish. The pair is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3565 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Outlook

  • RES 4: 131.49 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
  • RES 2: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
  • RES 1: 128.68/130.20 20-day EMA / High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
  • PRICE: 127.55 @ 05:23 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 127.28 Low Oct 19
  • SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures remain soft following last week’s move lower. The pullback from 130.20, the Oct 12 high highlights the end of the recent corrective recovery between Oct 4 - 12. Note that the medium-term trend direction is down and moving average studies continue to reflect this. An extension lower would open 126.62, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 130.20.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

  • RES 4: 116.740 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
  • RES 2: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
  • RES 1: 115.795 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 115.390 @ 05:24 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 115.070 Low Oct 4
  • SUP 2: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 114.414 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - 28 - Oct 12 price swing

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. Last week’s sell-off strengthens the latest reversal and undermines the recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger has been defined at 116.500, the Oct 10 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
  • RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
  • RES 2: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 105.012 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 104.940 @ 05:42 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 104.800 Low Oct 19
  • SUP 2: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
  • SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present and the contract is trading below resistance at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and a short-term bull trigger. The recent move through support at 105.035, Oct 10 low, strengthened a bearish theme and has exposed the key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.012, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Breaches Key Support

  • RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
  • RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 93.35/94.28 20-day EMA / High Oct 16
  • RES 1: 92.98 High Oct 18
  • PRICE: 91.78 @ Close Oct 20
  • SUP 1: 91.18 Low Oct 20
  • SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
  • SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
  • SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower last week and the contract maintains a bearish theme. Price has traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a move towards 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial firm resistance is at 93.35, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Pierces Key Support

  • RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
  • RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
  • RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
  • RES 1: 109.56/111.17 20-day EMA / High Oct 12 and key resistance
  • PRICE: 108.55 @ Close Oct 20
  • SUP 1: 107.42 Low Oct 19
  • SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
  • SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle low last week as the contract extends the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. Price has pierced key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17 marks the key resistance. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Price Sequence

  • RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 4228.80/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
  • RES 1: 4166.00 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 4047.00 @ 06:01 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
  • SUP 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
  • SUP 3: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
  • SUP 4: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger. This break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 4034, the Mar 24 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 4166.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: 4514.50 High Sep 18
  • RES 3: 4479.38 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
  • RES 2: 4410.92/4430.50 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
  • RES 1: 4360.16 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 4256.75 @ 07:20 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: 4235.50 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
  • SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
  • SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone. Attention is on 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4197.75, the May 24 low. The contract continues to trade below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4410.92. A clear breach of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and this would open 4479.38, trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
  • RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
  • RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: $93.79 - High Oct 20
  • PRICE: $91.29 @ 06:57 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: $88.08/83.44 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
  • SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
  • SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
  • SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures maintain a firmer tone following last week’s climb. The latest recovery has defined a key support at $83.44, Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the continuation higher exposes the bull trigger at $95.35, Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Trend Structure

  • RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
  • RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
  • RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
  • RES 1: $89.85 - High Oct 20
  • PRICE: $87.16 @ 07:11 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: $84.06/80.20 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 6
  • SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
  • SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
  • SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded higher last week and the contract remains in bull-mode condition. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

  • RES 4: $2048.2 - High May 10
  • RES 3: $2022.2 - High May 15
  • RES 2: $2003.4 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
  • RES 1: $1997.2 - High Oct 20
  • PRICE: $1976.4 @ 07:13 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: $1945.3/1907.7 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
  • SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
  • SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold traded higher last week, extending the reversal from $1810.5, the Oct 6 low. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1907.7, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
  • RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
  • RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
  • RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
  • PRICE: $23.196 @ 08:13 BST Oct 23
  • SUP 1: $22.524 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
  • SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A corrective cycle in Silver remains in play. The metal has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the 50-day average, at $22.817, strengthens bullish conditions and the move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, the Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch though is $22.524, the 20-day EMA.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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