MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Bounce Looks Corrective
Price Signal Summary – EURUSD Bounce Looks Corrective
- S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is holding on to its gains.
- The latest recovery in EURUSD appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0346, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0393, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0461. A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is holding onto its latest gains. Recent gains undermine a bearish theme and suggest scope for stronger short-term recovery. Resistance points at 0.8376, the Nov 19 high. A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
- Gold is trading higher today. The yellow metal has pierced resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for an extension higher near-term. The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The latest strong impulsive climb has resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high.
- The Jan 15 rally in Bund futures highlighted a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is also allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Pierces Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
- RES 2: 1.0461 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 1.0379 @ 05:59 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0097 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The latest recovery in EURUSD appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0346, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0393, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0461. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish.
GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2545 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2371 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2345 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2278 @ 06:21 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The primary trend direction in GBPUSD remains down and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2371, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger corrective phase and signal scope for an extension, possibly towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2545. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.2100, the Jan 10 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21
- RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8474 High Jan 20
- PRICE: 0.8455 @ 06:31 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 0.8403/8364 Low Jan 16 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8341 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
- SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is holding onto its latest gains. Recent gains undermine a bearish theme and suggest scope for stronger short-term recovery. Resistance points at 0.8376, the Nov 19 high, and 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, have been breached, strengthening the current bullish theme. Sights are on 0.8494 next, the Aug 26 ‘24 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8341.
USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 156.56 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 155.45 @ 06:50 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 155.00/154.78 50-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 154.32Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
- SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.32, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 162.31/89 High Jan 20 / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 161.29 @ 07:03 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
A short-term bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact. Last week’s move down marked an extension of the current downtrend. The cross has pierced support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. The cross has recovered from its recent lows, a move above 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6335 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6261 @ 16:49 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6100. Resistance at 0.6229, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 0.6335, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Breaches Support
- RES 4: 1.4671 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4486 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4323 @ 16:50 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.4262 Low Jan 20
- SUP 2: 1.4226 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
A sharp sell-off in USDCAD Monday resulted in a print below support at 1.4280, the 20-day EMA. Pice has also traded through the 20-day EMA, at 1.4364. The reversal has exposed the next key support at 1.4226, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.4486, Monday’s intraday high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 132.41 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.15 Intraday high
- PRICE: 132.03 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The Jan 15 rally in Bund futures highlighted a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is also allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low, a break would resume the downtrend.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 117.792 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 117.490 Low Dec 30
- RES 2: 117.300 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.170 Intraday high
- PRICE: 117.110 @ 05:43 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 116.650/280 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, a corrective phase is in play and the contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a short-term reversal and the start of a corrective cycle. An extension higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.300, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, the Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 106.769 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 106.695 Intraday high
- PRICE: 106.670 @ 06:09 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 106.545/435 Low Jan 16 / 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including fresh cycle lows last week, reinforce this theme. However, from a short-term perspective, the Jan 15 recovery suggests scope for a short-term bull cycle - a correction. This opens 106.769, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 93.09 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 92.75 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 92.27 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 91.96 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 91.58 @ Close Jan 20
- SUP 1: 90.68 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 91.55. This average has been breached, a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.32/35 20-day EMA / High Jan 17
- PRICE: 119.24 @ Close Jan 20
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.32, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Holding On To Its Gains
- RES 4: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 5261.57 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 5215.87 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 5202 High Jan 20
- PRICE: 5167.00 @ 06:25 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 5113.00/5040.00 Low Jan 17 / High Dec 9
- SUP 2: 5020.28/4931.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is holding on to its gains. The focus is on a climb towards 5215.87, a Fibonacci projection point. Key short-term support has been defined at 4931.00, the Jan 13 low. A break of this level would be bearish.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6078.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6037.25 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (H5) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $82.63 - High Jan 15
- PRICE: $79.86 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: $79.42 - Low Jan 20
- SUP 2: $77.70 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $75.48 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
Brent futures remain in an uptrend and despite the latest pullback, the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery confirms a continuation of the bull cycle and an acceleration of it. Key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high, has been breached, strengthening the bullish theme and this opens $83.79, the Jul 5 high. Key short-term support is $77.70, the 20-day EMA. A pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $76.46 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: $75.82 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $73.89 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $71.59 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The latest strong impulsive climb has resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open 80.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.89, a key short-term support.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high
- RES 2: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 1: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- PRICE: $2727.5 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: $2653.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Gold is trading higher today. The yellow metal has pierced resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for an extension higher near-term. This would expose $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, first support to watch is $2653.4, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
SILVER TECHS: Scope For Gains Near-Term
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.974 - HIgh Jan 16
- PRICE: $30.402 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. However, the metal traded higher last week suggesting scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.