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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Cements Bearish Outlook

Price Signal Summary – EURUSD Cements Bearish Outlook

  • E-Mini S&P futures found resistance yesterday ahead of the 20-day EMA that today intersects at 4398.31. This average represents an important intraday resistance. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday to a fresh trend low of 3704.00. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs - a price condition that defines a downtrend.
  • In FX, EURUSD delivered a new 2022 low Tuesday, cementing the bearish outlook and highlighting scope for an extension of this bear leg. The break lower also confirms a resumption of the broader bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, in line with the medium-term downtrend. GBPUSD continues to trade above recent lows but has probed 1.3273. The outlook is bearish following the move lower on Jan 24 and attention is on 1.3273, Feb 24 low. USDJPY continues to consolidate and remains above the Feb 24 low of 114.41. A key support at 114.16 also remains intact, Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the underlying trend condition remains bullish highlighted too by a positive MA set-up.
  • WTI futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains mark a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This has again confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gold has traded higher and moved above the top of its bull channel once again. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1941.7.
  • Bund futures traded sharply higher yesterday as the contract extends recent gains. Importantly, yesterday’s rally saw price trade above the 50-day EMA at 168.44. This average represented a key resistance area and the clear break signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures rallied yesterday and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery that started from the 121.10 low of Feb 16.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh YTD Cycle Low

  • RES 4: 1.1431 High Feb 11
  • RES 3: 1.1396 High Feb 16
  • RES 2: 1.1328 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.1233/80 High Mar 1 / Low Feb 14
  • PRICE: 1.1079 @ 09:34 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 1.1059 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase
  • SUP 3: 1.0976 2.00 projection of the Jan - Jun - May ‘21 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.0871 Low May 25, 2020

EURUSD delivered a new 2022 low Tuesday, cementing the bearish outlook and highlighting scope for an extension of this bear leg. The break lower also confirms a resumption of the broader bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, in line with the medium-term downtrend and a bearish moving average set-up. The focus is on 1.1040, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

  • RES 4: 1.3666/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.3662 High Jan 20
  • RES 2: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
  • RES 1: 1.3439/87 High Feb 25 / Low Feb 15
  • PRICE: 1.3297 @ 09:36 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 1.3273/72 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.3240 Low Dec 22
  • SUP 3: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
  • SUP 4: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support

GBPUSD continues to trade above recent lows but has probed 1.3273. The outlook is bearish following the move lower on Jan 24 and attention is on 1.3273, Feb 24 low. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. 1.3301, 76.4% of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 rally has also been probed. A clear break would strengthen bearish pressure and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3487.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

  • RES 4: 0.8512 High Dec 22
  • RES 3: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
  • RES 2: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
  • RES 1: 0.8406 High Feb 25
  • PRICE: 0.8355 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 0.8306/8285 Low Feb 24 / Low Feb 3 and key support
  • SUP 2: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
  • SUP 4: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing

EURGBP remains below last week’s high of 0.8406 but importantly, above key support at 0.8285, Feb 3 low. Last week’s recovery from 0.8306, Feb 24 low, suggests a short-term bullish theme remains intact and this highlights potential for a recovery towards the Feb 7 high of 0.8478. This represents a key short-term resistance. Weakness below 0.8306 would undermine a bullish theme while a breach of 0.8285 would resume the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Support

  • RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
  • RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
  • RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
  • PRICE: 115.16 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
  • SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02
  • SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
  • SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY continues to consolidate and remains above the Feb 24 low of 114.41. A key support at 114.16 also remains intact, Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the underlying trend condition remains bullish highlighted too by a positive MA set-up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 116.34/35 key resistance. Weakness below 114.41 and more importantly 114.16, would highlight a bearish threat and expose 113.47, Jan 24 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Probes The December Lows

  • RES 4: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
  • RES 2: 130.09 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 129.25 High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 127.58 @ 09:37 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 127.30 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 127.27 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 127.04 Low Feb 15, 2021
  • SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9 2021

A EURJPY bearish threat remains present and yesterday’s fresh YTD low reinforces the current bearish theme. The cross has cleared key support at 128.25, Jan 25 low to confirm a 100% retracement of the recent Jan 25 - Feb 10 bull phase. This opens losses through the mid-December lows towards the 127.00 handle. Gains would be considered corrective - initial resistance is seen at 129.25, yesterday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

  • RES 4: 0.7371 High Nov 15, 2021
  • RES 3: 0.7345 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 0.7290 High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 0.7247 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 0.7187 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
  • SUP 4: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Tuesday to print 0.7290, topping first resistance at 0.7284 in the process. A key resistance intersects just above at 0.7314, Jan 13 high. Clearance would strengthen the case for bulls and open 0.7371, Nov 15 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 0.7095, the Feb 24 low where a break would instead highlight a bearish threat and expose 0.6968, the Feb 14 low and a key support.

USDCAD TECHS: Key S/T Support Intact For Now

  • RES 4: 1.3009 High Dec 1 2020
  • RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
  • RES 1: 1.2878 High Feb 24
  • PRICE: 1.2738 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 1.2654/36 Low Mar 1 / Low Feb 10 and key S/T support
  • SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
  • SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
  • SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD last week failed to hold onto recent highs and yesterday traded lower through the Monday session, before recovering. The move lower refocuses attention on near-term support at 1.2636, Feb 10 low and a key S/T level. A break would signal potential for a deeper sell-off. The recent focus has been bullish and an ability to remain above 1.2636 and resume gains, would again open the key resistance at 1.2964, the Dec 22 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Holding Onto This Weeks Gains

  • RES 4: 172.50 76.4% retracement of Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
  • RES 3: 172.00 round number resistance
  • RES 2: 171.53 High Jan 3
  • RES 1: 170.94/171.12 61.8% of Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg / High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 170.40 @ 05:27 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 168.51 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 167.31 Low Mar 1
  • SUP 3: 165.87/16 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 22
  • SUP 4: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded sharply higher yesterday as the contract extends recent gains. Importantly, yesterday’s rally saw price trade above the 50-day EMA at 168.44. This average represented a key resistance area and the clear break signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. The focus is on 170.94 next, a Fibonacci retracement that was probed yesterday. A resumption of gains would open 172.00. Initial support is at 168.51, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Strong Impulsive Gains

  • RES 4: 134.400 High Dec 20
  • RES 3: 134.000 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 133.980 High Dec 22
  • RES 1: 133.740 High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 133.400 @ 05:08 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 132.040 Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: 131.553/130.710 20-day EMA / Low Feb 22 and 23
  • SUP 3: 130.510 Low Feb 15
  • SUP 4: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded sharply higher too yesterday and this marks an extension of the recovery that started Feb 10 at 130.080. This week’s impulsive gains have resulted in a move through the 20- and 50-day EMAs to reinforce and strengthen the current bullish theme. Price has also breached resistance at 133.250, the Jan 24 high and this opens the 134.00 handle next. Initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of 132.040.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Reversal Of This Years Downtrend

  • RES 4: 112.708 1.500 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
  • RES 3: 112.623 1.382 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
  • RES 2: 112.519 1.236 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
  • RES 1: 112.465 High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 112.360 @ 05:25 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 112.010 Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: 111.815/635 Low Feb 28 / Low Feb 23
  • SUP 3: 111.545 Low Feb 15
  • SUP 4: 111.420 Low Feb 11

Schatz futures rallied too on Tuesday. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a clear breach of resistance at 112.145, the Jan 24 high. The break significantly strengthens the current bullish outlook and the rally also confirms a full reversal of this year's bearish price action. With 112.305 also cleared, the Nov 26 high, scope is seen for gains towards 112.519, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support is seen at 112.010, yesterday’s low.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Breaks Out Of Its Recent Range

  • RES 4: 127.47 2.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
  • RES 3: 127.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 126.90 2.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
  • RES 1: 126.81 High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 126.06 @ Close Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 123.50 Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: 122.76 Low Feb 28
  • SUP 3: 122.04 Low Feb 23 and a key intraday support
  • SUP 4: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures rallied yesterday and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery that started from the 121.10 low of Feb 16. This signals scope for a climb towards 126.90 and 127.47 next, Fibonacci projections based on a recent price swing. Key short-term support has been defined at yesterday’s low of 123.50.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Clears All Near-Term Retracement Levels

  • RES 4: 148.02 High Dec 29
  • RES 3: 147.39 High Jan 3
  • RES 2: 147.06 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: 145.87 High Mar 1
  • PRICE: 145.10 @ Close Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 143.37/ 141.91 50-day EMA / Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: 138.63/06 Low Feb 22 / 16 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures are firm following yesterday’s strong gains as the contract extends the retracement of the most recent Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 144.94, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.06 next, the Jan 31 high. A break would further strengthen the current bullish condition. Firm support is seen at yesterday’s low of 141.91.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): 20-Day EMA Offered Resistance Tuesday

  • RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
  • RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 4482.35 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 4398.31 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 4314.75 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 4101.75 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
  • SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures found resistance yesterday ahead of the 20-day EMA that today intersects at 4398.31. This average represents an important intraday resistance. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A deeper sell-off would signal a resumption of the downtrend and refocus attention on 4101.75, the Feb 24 low and bear trigger. A breach of the 20-day EMA would expose 4482.35.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Fresh Cycle Lows

  • RES 4: 4324.50 High Jan 13
  • RES 3: 4250.00 High Feb 2
  • RES 2: 4111.30 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 4021.70 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 3765.00 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: 3704.00 Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: 3663.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
  • SUP 3: 3617.40 1.618 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
  • SUP 4: 3600.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday to a fresh trend low of 3704.00. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs - a price condition that defines a downtrend. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards 3700.00 and 3663.50. The latter is a Fibonacci projection level. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 4021.70, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Defying Gravity

  • RES 4: $120.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 3: $117.15 - 2.618 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
  • RES 2: $114.80 - 2.50 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
  • RES 1: $113.02 - Intraday high
  • PRICE: $110.89 @ 09:23 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: $92.75 - Low Fev 25 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 3: $91.94 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures have resumed their uptrend again today as the current rally accelerates. This week’s gains have confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and this has resulted in a clear break of the psychological $100.00 mark. The focus is on $114.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a firm support has been defined at $92.75, Friday’s low. Yesterday’s low of $98.30 marks the first support.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Uptrend Accelerates

  • RES 4: $120.00 - psychological round number
  • RES 3: $116.01 - 2.764 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
  • RES 2: $113.15 - 2.618 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
  • RES 1: $111.50 - Intraday high
  • PRICE: $109.38 @ 09:23 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
  • SUP 2: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
  • SUP 3: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
  • SUP 4: $84.92 - Low Feb 1

WTI futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains mark a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This has again confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been cleared and strengthens current trend conditions. The focus is on the $113.15 next, a Fibonacci projection On the downside, initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of $95.32.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Above Its Channel Top

  • RES 4: $1992.5 - High Sep 1 2020
  • RES 3: $1980.8 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: $1974.3 - High Feb 24
  • RES 1: $1950.1 - High Mar 2
  • PRICE: $1941.6 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 2
  • SUP 1: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
  • SUP 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
  • SUP 3: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15
  • SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold has traded higher and moved above the top of its bull channel once again. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1941.7. A clear break higher would reinforce bullish conditions and pave the way for strength towards the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Key short-term support is unchanged at last Thursday’s $1878.4 low where a break would suggest the tide has turned and signal scope for a deeper pullback within the channel.

SILVER TECHS: Eyeing Resistance

  • RES 4: $26.775 - High Jul 6 2021
  • RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14, 2021
  • RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4, 2021
  • RES 1: $25.541/625 - High Mar 1 / High Feb 24
  • PRICE: $25.220 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 3
  • SUP 1: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
  • SUP 2: $23.443 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
  • SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7

Silver rallied yesterday but remains below last week’s high of $25.625. Despite a recent pullback and volatile price action, the outlook remains bullish and scope is seen for a continuation higher to retest $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high. This level was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at $23.850, the Feb 24 low. Dips would be considered corrective.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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