MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Softer, Nearing Support

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Clear The 50-Day EMA

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are unchanged and still trading close to the all-time high of 4238.25 May 10 high. This remains the key resistance and the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend. Initial support is at 4165.25, Jun 3 low.
• In the FX space, EURUSD appears vulnerable following last week's price action. The focus is on 1.2105, the 50-day EMA. GBPUSD is softer and remains below 1.4248, Jun 1 high. A deeper pullback would expose 1.4006, May 13 low. Note the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.4024 and also represents a key support level. Recent USDJPY weakness has resulted in a probe of support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. A clear break lower would threaten the recent uptrend and expose 108.56, May 25 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold key short-term directional triggers are at; $1916.6, the Jun 1 and bull trigger and $1856.2, the Jun 4 low. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price has traded higher this week. Recent Brent (Q1) gains have opened $73.00 next, a round number resistance. WTI (N1) similarly cleared resistance to hit new cycle highs, clearing the $70.00 psychological level in the process. The focus is on $70.92, 2.764 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• Within FI, Bunds (U1) have topped the 50-day EMA at 172.00 and looks to have made a clear break. This counters the bearish outlook, with support still holding at 170.99. May 31 low. The break higher opens 172.64, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off. Gilts (U1) challenged resistance at 127.74/82 this morning - marking the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. A bearish risk remains present. A breach of this resistance zone is required to highlight a base.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 1.2165 @ 06:05 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.2108/2104 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13
• SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5
• SUP 4: 1.1919 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally

EURUSD failed to hold onto yesterday's gains. The pair remains vulnerable following a sharp pullback Jun 3 that saw price trade through initial support at 1.2133, May 28 low. This highlights potential for a deeper correction and attention remains on the 50-day EMA at 1.2108. The EMA represents a key area of support ahead of 1.2104, the Jun 4 low. On the upside, primary resistance is unchanged at 1.2266, May 25 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.4448 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 1: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4111 @ 06:09 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.4083 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 1.4028/06 50-day EMA / Low May 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3972 Low May 10
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD is still trading in a range below 1.4248, Jun 1 high. Trend conditions are bullish. The probe last week of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforces this bullish theme however a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 1.4315 next, April 18 2018 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.4083, Jun 4 low. A break would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.4028 and 1.4006, May 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: In A Range

• RES 4: 0.8777 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8622 @ 06:19 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.8565/61 Low Jun 4 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8433 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP traded higher Wednesday. Price action though remains within the current range. The broader outlook is bearish following the move lower between May 25 - 28. Initial resistance is at 0.8672, May 25 high and while this holds, attention is on 0.8561, May 12 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. A move above 0.8672 alters the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.33 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 109.54 @ 06:24 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 109.19/108.97 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY recovered Wednesday but has failed to make significant progress through last Friday's NFP inspired decline. The recent move lower resulted in a print below initial key short-term support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. This dents the bullish theme and a deeper sell-off would expose 108.56, May 25 low. A recovery would instead refocus attention on 110.33 where a break would resume the uptrend and open this year's 110.97 high from Mar 31 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 134.98 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 3: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 133.81/34.13 High Jun 4 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 133.29 @ 06:34 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 132.89 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 131.94 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.47 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY has traded lower overnight. Trend conditions remain bullish despite the recent move lower and the pullback is likely a correction. The cross touched a high of 134.13 on Jun 1 and the extension reinforces bullish conditions signalling scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The channel top intersects at 134.98. Firm support lies at 132.52, May 24 low. Initial support is seen at 132.89, the weekly low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• RES 1: 0.7773 High Jun 2
• PRICE: 0.7734 @ 06:42 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.7646 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7542 200-dma

AUDUSD is consolidating in a tight range. The pair broke through 0.7675 on Jun 3 but immediately reversed the sharp move lower. Last week's break lower however does signal the end of the recent broader consolidation since mid-April. A resumption of weakness would open 0.7586, Apr 13 low and 0.7532, Apr 1 low and key support. Initial resistance is at 0.7773, Jun 2 high and 0.7813, May 18 high. A break of the latter would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Stuck In A Range

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2245 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2142/2203 High May 27 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2114 @ 06:50 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.2007 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1839 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD continues to trade in a range. The underlying trend however remains bearish although to resume the downleg, the pair needs to clear 1.2007, May 18 low. This would expose the psychological 1.2000 handle where a breach would also reinforce bearish conditions. For bulls, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2203, May 6 high. A break would instead signal a S/T base and the potential for a stronger corrective bounce.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bullish Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 172.85 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 172.59@ 05:18 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 171.61 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures traded higher again yesterday. The contract has breached resistance at 172.01, the 50-day EMA and 172.05, Jun 4 high. The break higher signals scope for stronger short-term gains. Potential is seen for a move towards 173.00 next and 173.32, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 171.61. Key near-term support has been defined at 170.99, Mar 31 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.430 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 134.340 @ 05:19 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 134.042 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded higher Jun 4 and confirmed a clear break of resistance at 134.100. The break higher also confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows as the rally from the May 20 low extends. This week's gains reinforces bullish conditions. Scope is seen for a move towards 134.510 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support has been defined at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break is needed to alter the picture.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Establishes Short-Term Uptrend

• RES 4: 112.210 1.50 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.204 1.382 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.197 1.236 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 112.195 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 112.180 @ 05:33 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 112.150 Low Jun 4, 7, 8
• SUP 2: 112.145 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 112.125 Low May 17

Schatz futures pushed higher yesterday and managed to trade above resistance at 112.180, May 27 high. The break higher highlights a stronger short-term bullish tone signalling scope for a climb towards 112.197 and 112.204, Fibonacci projections. Key trend support has been defined at 112.135, late May lows where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is at 112.150.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Key Resistance Cleared

• RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 128.18 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 127.93 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 127.13 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday and in the process managed to clear resistance at 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. Furthermore, the move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing a bullish theme. This signals scope for a climb towards 128.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Still heading North

• RES 4: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 151.92 0.764 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 151.71 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 151.35 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 149.53 Low May 28 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 148.80 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low May 24

BTP futures traded sharply higher yesterday and the contract maintains the current bullish cycle following the reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. This cycle is allowing an earlier oversold condition to unwind. With bulls clearly in control, attention is on 151.92 next, a Fibonacci projection and the 152.00 handle. On the downside, support has been defined at 150.11, Jun 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Consolidating At The Highs

• RES 4: 4213.75 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
• RES 3: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4116.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 4105.00 @ 06:00 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 4045.64/4016.00 20-day EMA / Low May 27
• SUP 2: 3964.11/53.62 50-day EMA / Channel base from Feb 26 low
• SUP 3: 3882.00 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged. Conditions remain bullish with the contract achieving a fresh trend high of 4116.00 Tuesday. The move higher this week confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the broad positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4140.00 next, the Jan 18, 2008 high. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 4045.64.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Consolidating Ahead Of Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4324.97 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 2: 4228.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4227.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 4212.50 @ 06:58 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 4155.50 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 4118.76/4046.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4005.50 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains reinforced the bullish significance of the recovery in May from support defined by the 50-day EMA - the average was tested twice in May. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4228.25, May 10 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial firm support is at 4046.00, May 19 low. Last week's low of 4155.50 marks the first support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $74.20 - High Apr 26, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $73.40 - High May 20 2019 (cont)
• RES 2: $73.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $72.87 - High Jun 9
• PRICE: $71.74 @ 06:53 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $69.90 High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 2: $69.74 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $63.51 - Low Apr 22

Brent crude futures traded higher once again yesterday confirming a resumption of the underlying uptrend and with the $72.00 handle cleared attention turns to $73.00 and $73.40. The latter is the May 20, 2019 high (cont). Weakness through $64.50, the May 21 low is required to highlight a key short-term top. Initial support lies at $69.90, May 18 high with the 20-day EMA intersecting at $69.74.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $72.70 - High Oct 15, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $72.06 - 3.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $70.92 - 2.764 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.62 - High Jun 9
• PRICE: $69.47 @ 06:59 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $67.13 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 4: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support

WTI crude futures remain bullish and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. The psychological $70.00 handle has been cleared. The break reinforces current trend conditions and opens $70.92 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Initial firm support is seen at $67.02.

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
• RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 1: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1885.2 @ 07:14 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $1856.2 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $1852.3 - Low May 19
• SUP 3: $1837.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1808.9 - Low May 13

Gold is slightly weaker. The metal faced strong selling pressure Jun 3 and probed the 20-day EMA currently at $1876.7. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback to $1852.3, May 19 low. Recent weakness is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Note that below $1852.3 lies support highlighted by the 50-day EMA at $1837.8. The 50-day EMA marks a key trend support area. Key resistance is at $1916.6.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 2: $28.556/753 - High Jun 1 / High May 18
• RES 1: $28.237 - High Jun 3
• PRICE: $27.735 @ 07:17 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $27.062 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $27.040 - Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver is unchanged. The metal faced selling pressure on Jun 3 moving sharply below the $28.00 handle. The move lower exposes support defined by the 50-day EMA at $27.062. A clear break of the EMA and of $27.040, Jun 3 low would concern bulls and attention would likely turn to support at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Key resistance has been defined at $28.753, May 18 high. Initial resistance though is seen at $28.237, Jun 3 high.