MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Conditions Remain Bearish
Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Conditions Remain Bearish
- The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Friday’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded to a fresh cycle low Friday, before recovering. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has traded through 4859.20, the 50-day EMA and a key pivot price point.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the break lower in price maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDJPY remains in consolidation mode and is trading at its recent highs. The primary uptrend is intact and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared highlighting an important technical breach that confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price continuing to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact, however, last week’s move lower highlights the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA.
- The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish. The contract is trading lower today and is starting the week on a bearish note. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Outlook
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.0740/0795 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
- PRICE: 1.0669 @ 05:49 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
- SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.0546 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
- SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23
The bear cycle in EURUSD remains in play and price is trading closer to recent lows. The break on Apr 12 of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. This signals scope for a move towards 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0546, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0740, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.2542/1.2607 20-and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2468 High Apr 19
- PRICE: 1.2386 @ 06:06 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
- SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Low Nov 10
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the break lower in price maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing a bearish theme. Sights are on 1.2364, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2542, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Range Breakout
- RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8640 High Jan 4
- RES 2: 0.8633 50.0% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.8618 High Apr 19 / High Mar 22 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.8612 @ 06:25 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 0.8563 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
A strong rally Friday in EURGBP resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high and a key resistance. A continuation higher would highlight a range breakout and a continuation of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. This would open 0.8633, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 0.8563, the 50-day EMA. A break of this EMA would be viewed as a bearish development.
USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 156.47 2.00 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 3: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 154.79 High Apr 16
- PRICE: 154.71 @ 06:48 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 153.59 Low Apr 19
- SUP 2: 152.75/151.03 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 150.27 Low Mar 21
- SUP 4: 149.03 Low Mar 19
USDJPY remains in consolidation mode and is trading at its recent highs. The primary uptrend is intact and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The trend is overbought, however, this is clearly not a concern for bulls at this stage. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next. On the downside, support lies at 152.75, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 167.69 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
- PRICE: 165.02 @ 07:01 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 163.68/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
- SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
- SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
- SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11
The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and this is reinforced by the fact that the cross remains above key support at 163.68 - a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. This line has recently been pierced. A clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal and this would also highlight a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 163.01. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 165.35, the Mar 20 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
- RES 3: 0.6532 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6498 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6457 High Apr 18
- PRICE: 0.6436 @ 07:29 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 0.6363 Low Apr 19
- SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
- SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared highlighting an important technical breach that confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.6532, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3846 High Apr 16
- PRICE: 1.3726 @ 07:55 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 1.3715 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3667 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3591 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This opens 1.3855 next, Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support lies at 1.3667, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M4) Starting The Week On A Bearish Note
- RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
- RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
- RES 1: 131.97 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 130.67 @ 05:29 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 130.66 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 130.25 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 129.87 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish. The contract is trading lower today and is starting the week on a bearish note. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 130.25, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
BOBL TECHS: (M4) Southbound
- RES 4: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 118.460 High Mar 12
- RES 3: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
- RES 1: 117.460 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.770 @ 05:38 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
- SUP 2: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.306 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle low today. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. The clear breach confirms a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year and sights are on 116.740, the Mar 5 high (cont). For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a reversal. First resistance is 117.460, 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
- RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
- RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
- RES 1: 105.543/680 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- PRICE: 105.270 @ 05:55 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 105.265 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 105.178 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 105.047 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.178, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.543, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
- RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 97.83/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- PRICE: 96.81 @ Close Apr 19
- SUP 1: 96.01 Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support
A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.
BTP TECHS: (M4) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
- RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
- PRICE: 116.90 @ Close Apr 19
- SUP 1: 116.52 Low Feb 29
- SUP 2: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. Attention is on 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. A clear break of the latter level would signal a stronger reversal. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.10, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 4990.00 High Apr 15
- RES 1: 4926.90 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4884.00 @ 06:15 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 4762.00 Low Apr 19
- SUP 2: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
- SUP 3: 4700.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded to a fresh cycle low Friday, before recovering. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has traded through 4859.20, the 50-day EMA and a key pivot price point. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and opens 4711.00, the Feb 19 low. Initial firm resistance is 4926.90, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 5400.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5164.38 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5095.25/5141.21 High Apr 18 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 5027.250 @ 07:10 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 4963.50 Low Apr 19
- SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
- SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17
The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Friday’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 4907.57 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 5164.38, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (M4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12
- PRICE: $86.28 @ 06:57 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $85.49 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $80.56 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $76.18 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $72.38 Low Dec 13 and a key support
Last week’s activity in Brent futures resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and the pair remain soft. The move lower highlights the start of a corrective cycle and suggests potential for an extension towards $85.49, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $92.18, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (M4) Approaching Key Short-Term Support
- RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 1: $86.97 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $81.29 @ 07:04 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $80.70 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
- SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3
A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact, however, last week’s move lower highlights the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at $80.70. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a stronger bearish theme. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12
- PRICE: $2365.1 @ 07:11 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $2310.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2212.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price continuing to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The next objective is $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2310.2, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12
- PRICE: $27.725 @ 08:00 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $27.195 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $25.641/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support
Despite the pullback in Silver from the Apr 12 high, the trend outlook remains bullish. Recent trend gains and a bullish moving average set-up, reinforce the current positive outlook. Scope is seen for a climb towards the $30.00 psychological handle. A break of this level would strengthen the bullish set-up. Initial firm support lies at $27.195, the 20-day EMA. A move lower in the metal would be considered corrective.