MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Retain Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Gilt futures retain bullish theme

• The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bullish and last Friday’s resumption of the short-term uptrend has reinforced current conditions. Last week’s extension higher resulted in a break of 3820.00, Oct 5 high. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures theme remains intact and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Resistance at 3678.00, the Sep 13 high has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. Last week’s key technical development was the break of the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high and highlights a stronger bull reversal. The short-term EURGBP trend needle still points south. The print below support at 0.8579, the Oct 17 low, reinforces the current bear condition and attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The EURJPY trend condition is bullish despite this week’s move lower. Support to watch lies at 143.80, Oct 24 low and a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is at 148.40, the Oct 21 high and a bull trigger.
• A downtrend in Gold remains intact despite this week’s gains. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high and the move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. The WTI futures outlook is bullish and the recovery from Monday’s low reinforces this theme. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached.
• Bund futures are unchanged. The contract remains in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the extension from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. With a bullish cycle still in play and following the break of 138.52, Oct 14 high, scope is seen for a test of the 50-day EMA. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme following last week’s extension higher and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The Former Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.9998/1.0094 High Oct 28 / 27
• PRICE: 0.9888 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 02
• SUP 1: 0.9853 Low Nov 01
• SUP 2: 0.9821 Former bear channel resistance-now-support
• SUP 3: 0.9807 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 0.9705 Low Oct 21

EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. Last week’s key technical development was the break of the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high and highlights a stronger bull reversal. The focus is on 1.0198 next, the Sep 12 high. The support to watch is 0.9821, the former bear channel resistance. A rebound in price ahead of this support would reinforce the bullish condition.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 1.1834 76.4% Fib retracement for the Aug - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1738/52 High Sep 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1645 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 1.1500 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 1.1445 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1234 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key support

GBPUSD is consolidating and this pause in uptrend appears to be a bull flag - a bullish pattern that reinforces the current uptrend. Last week's gains resulted in a break of 1.1495, Oct 5 high. The move confirms an extension of the reversal from 1.0350, Sep 26 low and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on 1.1738 next, the Sep 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.1445, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• RES 1: 0.8684 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8593 @ 06:26 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24

The short-term EURGBP trend needle still points south. The print below support at 0.8579, the Oct 17 low, reinforces the current bear condition and attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish outlook.

USDJPY TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 147.36 @ 06:38 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 145.99/145.11 Low Oct 28 / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.37 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact despite the recovery from 145.11, Oct 27 low. The recent print below 145.56, Oct 24 low, reinforces a bearish condition and suggests a correction is set to extend. Momentum studies are trending down, having pulled back from a recent overbought area. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 144.37 that represents an important support. Key resistance is 151.95, Oct 21 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 149.71.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.75 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 145.77 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 145.37/143.80 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.18 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

The EURJPY trend condition is bullish despite this week’s move lower. Support to watch lies at 143.80, Oct 24 low and a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is at 148.40, the Oct 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement. MA studies are in a bull mode position highlighting an uptrend. Initial support is 145.37, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Doji Candle Formation Reinforces A Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6533/47 50-day EMA / High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6405 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 0.6368/6303 Low Oct 31 / 25
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD remains bullish and Monday’s price pattern - a doji Japanese candle - signals the end of the recent 3-day pullback. If correct, this suggests scope for a move higher towards the 50-day EMA, at 0.6533 and 0.6547, the Oct 4 high. A break of these two chart points would strengthen a bullish condition. Note that gains are still considered corrective and the broader M/T trend direction is down. Initial support to watch lies at 0.6368, the Oct 31 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3748 High Oct 25
• PRICE: 1.3608 @ 07:27 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3480 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD is unchanged. A bearish tone remains intact following the pullback from 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Support at 1.3503, Oct 4 high, has been pierced and this strengthens a bearish case that has exposed the 50-day EMA at 1.3480. A clear break of these two chart points (a key support zone) would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The broader trend direction is up and the move lower is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is 1.3855, Oct 21 high. A break would be a positive development for bulls.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 143.26 High Sep 19
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 140.76 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.66 @ 05:11 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 137.57 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 132.89 Low Oct 28 2011

Bund futures are unchanged. The contract remains in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the extension from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. With a bullish cycle still in play and following the break of 138.52, Oct 14 high, scope is seen for a test of the 50-day EMA, at 140.76 - a key resistance. Note that recent gains are also considered corrective. A reversal lower and a break of 137.57, Oct 27 low, would signal the end of the bullish corrective cycle.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 123.160 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 / 5
• PRICE: 119.840 @ 05:18 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 119.090 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a short-term bullish tone, despite the recent pullback. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and key short-term resistance at 119.960, the Oct 14 high. Clearance of this latter level strengthens the bullish condition and opens 121.330, the Oct 5 high, ahead of 121.950, the Oct 4 high and a bull trigger. Initial support is seen at 119.090, the Oct 27 low. A break would signal the end of the current bull phase.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.400 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 106.965 @ 05:26 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 106.710 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 106.680/350 Low Oct 24 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down, however, the contract remains in a bullish corrective cycle. This follows last week’s move higher and despite the latest pullback. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and cleared resistance at 107.180, the Oct 13 high. A resumption of gains would open the next key resistance, at 107.770, Oct 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 106.710, the Oct 27 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 102.88 @ Close Nov 1
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 99.91/98.15 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme following last week’s extension higher and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Support Seen At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.93 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 115.27 @ Close Nov 1
• SUP 1: 113.33 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded lower Monday. The short-term outlook is bullish following last week’s climb. The contract has cleared resistance at 112.25, Oct 14 high and 116.71, the Oct 4 high. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term and attention is on resistance at 119.06, the Sep 8 high. On the downside, key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. Initial support is at 113.33, the 20-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Finds Support

• RES 4: 113-30 High Oct 4
• RES 3: 113-03 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 112-22+ High Oct 6
• RES 1: 111-31 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 111-21 @ 15:37 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 110-12 Low Oct 31
• SUP 2: 109-20/108-26+ Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.05 3.0% 10-dma envelope

The intraday rally for Treasuries faded into the London close, keeping the primary trend direction down. Attention remains on resistance at 111-31, the Oct 27 high. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension higher near-term and this would expose the 50-day EMA at 113-03. Monday’s low is first support where a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback, ahead of 108-26+, the Oct 21 low and a bear trigger.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3678.00/79.00 High Sep 13 and key resistance / Intraday high
• PRICE: 3670.00 @ 05:45 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 3555.00/3504.00 Low Oct 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures theme remains intact and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Resistance at 3678.00, the Sep 13 high has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3504.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3928.00 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3871.25 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 3757.50/3641.50 Low Oct 27 / 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

The S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bullish and last Friday’s resumption of the short-term uptrend has reinforced current conditions. Last week’s extension higher resulted in a break of 3820.00, Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price is again above the 50-day EMA, at 3836.32. Sights are on 3981.25, the Sep 14 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 3757.50, the Oct 27 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.50 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $95.96/96.75 - Intraday high / 10 and key resistance
• PRICE: $95.49 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $91.46 - Low Oct 31
• SUP 2: $87.52 Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $84.67 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

Brent futures traded higher Tuesday and the contract is firmer again today. This confirms an extension of the recovery from $87.52, the Oct 18 low and reinforces a bullish condition. The focus is on resistance at $96.75, the Oct 10 high and the next key resistance. A break of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial support lies at $91.46, the Oct 31 low.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Price Activity

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $89.79 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $89.24 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $85.30/81.30 - Low Oct 31 / Low Oct 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

The WTI futures outlook is bullish and the recovery from Monday’s low reinforces this theme. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached. The break of this hurdle signals scope for gains towards $92.34, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial support lies at $85.30, the Oct 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 2: $1683.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1674.9 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $1652.4 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $1631.0/1615.0 - Low Nov 1 / Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

A downtrend in Gold remains intact despite this week’s gains. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high and the move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. A resumption of weakness would open key support and a bear trigger at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1683.0, the 50-day EMA. A break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Trades Through Resistance

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $20.499 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• RES 1: $20.039 - 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• PRICE: $19.684 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $18.904/17.967 - Low Oct 31 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish, however, yesterday’s gains are a concern for bulls. The break above resistance at 19.780, Oct 26 high, signals scope for a stronger recovery and exposes $20.039 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a resumption of weakness would instead refocus attention on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger.