MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Studies Remain Bearish
Price Signal Summary – Gilt Studies Remain Bearish
- S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Thursday. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - an important short-term bearish development. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has exposed the next support at 5724.00, the Oct 2 low.Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week. The move down has resulted in a breach of support at 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared.
- The trend theme in GBPUSD remains bearish and Thursday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The breach of 1.2908, the Oct 23 low, confirms a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 1.2846, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and despite Thursday’s pullback, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. A key support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and Thursday’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support.
- A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded lower again, yesterday. Price has this week breached 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with the subsequent extension, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Another steep sell-off in Gilts Thursday, confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0945 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0888 High Oct 30
- RES 1: 1.0885/0889 20-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.0872 @ 05:49 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 1.0761 Low Oct 23 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
A strong recovery in EURUSD appears - for now - to be corrective. The trend condition is bearish following recent weakness and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0885, the 20-day EMA - a level pierced on Thursday. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0945. The bear trigger is at 1.0761, the Oct 23 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3024/3054 20- and 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2899 @ 06:10 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 1.2846/44 76.4% of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg / Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 1.2762 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
The trend theme in GBPUSD remains bearish and Thursday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The breach of 1.2908, the Oct 23 low, confirms a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 1.2846, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg - a level pierced on Thursday. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.2799, the Aug 15 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3054, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Breaches Reversal Trigger
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8499 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 / Oct 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8448 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 0.8431 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 0.8357/8295 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher again, Thursday. The cross has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a strong short-term bullish development. Price has also pierced a key resistance at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high and a potential trend reversal point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 0.8464, the Sep 11 high. Initial support lies at 0.8357, the 20-day EMA. Key support is 0.8295, the Oct 18 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 153.88 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 152.36 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 151.46 Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 150.49/148.83 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and despite Thursday’s pullback, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has traded through 153.40, 61.8% of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The move higher sets the scene for an extension towards 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 148.83, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 150.49.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Is Bullish
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 165.77 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 163.77/162.84 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and Wednesday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Thursday’s move lower appears corrective and initial support to watch lies at 163.77, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6664/6701 20- and 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6622 Low Sep 11
- PRICE: 0.6560 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 0.6537 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. A key support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. Note too that the pair has also cleared 0.6576, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A continuation lower would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6622, the Sep 11 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4145 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 1.3937 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 1.3877/3799 Low Oct 25 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3710 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
The USDCAD trend outlook is bullish and the pair remains at its recent highs. Price has recently cleared 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and sights are on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. A break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3799, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 133.19 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a recent breakout point
- PRICE: 131.82 @ 05:29 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 131.15 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2 131.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 130.80 1.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and the contract traded lower again, yesterday. Price has this week breached 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The break, together with the subsequent extension, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 131.00 handle next, the Jul 26 low. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 132.65, the Sep 2 low.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 119.024 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.190 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 117.680 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures this week highlights a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off paves the way for an extension lower near-term and sights are on 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bearish But Oversold
- RES 4: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 106.750/835 Low Oct 28 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.580 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 106.375 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact, although the trend is oversold. This week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions and the move down resulted in a break of support at 106.580, the Oct 10 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early October and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on the 106.315, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.835, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Impulsive Bear Wave
- RES 4: 97.23 High Oct 22
- RES 3: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 2: 96.50 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.68/95.83 High Oct 31 / Low Oct 10
- PRICE: 94.04 @ Close Oct 31
- SUP 1: 93.18 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 92.99 2.00 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
Another steep sell-off in Gilts Thursday, confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract has traded through the 94.00 handle and sights are set on 92.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, Wednesday’s intraday high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible short-term base.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 119.55 @ Close Oct 31
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.16 Low Sep 2 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 117.70 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures have traded sharply lower this week resulting in a breach of support at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and highlights a possible reversal. The move down has exposed 118.64, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121.53, the Oct 25 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4949.03 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4839.00 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
- SUP 3: 4746.94 .61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week. The move down has resulted in a breach of support at 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared. This exposes 4815.50 next, the 50.0% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break is required to highlight a reversal.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Clears MA Support
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5831.570/5927.25 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 5743.50 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: 5732.50 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 3: 5637.60 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 5600.25 Low Sep 12
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Thursday. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - an important short-term bearish development. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has exposed the next support at 5724.00, the Oct 2 low. Clearance of this level would open 5637.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 5831.57, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.08 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $74.03 @ 07:03 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Despite the latest bounce, a bearish tone in Brent futures remains intact. A resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.68, the Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher is required to instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.08, the Oct 24 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.34 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $70.63 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $72.34, the Oct 24 high.
GOLD TECHS:Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $2832.8 - 3.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2790.1 - High Oct 31
- PRICE: $2750.9 @ 07:22 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: $2731.7 - Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: $2707.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2673.3 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 4: $2630.4 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and Thursday’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next. Firm support is $2707.3, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a short-term top.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.801 @ 08:16 GMT Nov 1
- SUP 1: $32.503 - Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: $31.545 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $30.035- Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective. The metal has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open £31.545, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.