MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Nearing Next Support

Price Signal Summary - Gilts Nearing Next Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis continue to push higher and have registered a fresh trend high Tuesday. The focus is on 4195.50, 1.618 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing. Key support is unchanged at 4110.50, Apr 21 low.
• In the FX world, EURUSD remains below the bear channel resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high that intersects at 1.2113 today. This week's high of 1.2117 also represents resistance and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions. Key short-term support is at 1.1994, Apr 22 low. GBPUSD remains below last week's high of 1.4009 on Apr 20. A bearish risk dominates while this level remains intact. Support to watch is at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. USDJPY has found support at 107.48. Just below trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low. A strong break of the 20-day EMA at 108.68 would ease bearish pressure. The bear trigger is 107.48.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but maintains a bullish tone. The focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Brent (M1) remains below last week's high. Key support to watch is $63.50, the 50-day EMA. WTI (M1) found resistance last week at $64.38 on Apr 20. The 50-day EMA at $60.15 is seen as a firm intraday support.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have defined a short-term resistance at 171.15/27, the 20-day EMA and Apr 22 high. On the downside support is at 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. Support to watch in Gilts (M1) remains 127.81, Apr 14 low. The key resistance is at 129.27, Mar 2 high and the reversal trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring The Bear Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 3: 1.2243/59 High Feb 25 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 1.2113/17 Bear channel top drawn off Jan 6 high / High Apr 26
• PRICE: 1.2075 @ 05:41 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.1994/43 Low Apr 22 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD is consolidating. The rally Apr 23 breached 1.2080, negating a bearish pattern - a gravestone doji on Apr 20. The climb reinstates a bullish outlook. A key short-term hurdle for bulls however remains intact. 1.2113 is a bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. A clear break of this resistance would be bullish and signal scope for an extension towards 1.2184, Feb 26 high. Support to watch is unchanged at at 1.1994, Apr 22 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Tone

• RES 4: 1.4155 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3950 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 1.3877 @ 05:48 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.3824 Low Apr 22 and key intraday support
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD is slightly weaker. The pair traded lower last week following a failure at 1.4009, Apr 20 high and maintains a S/T bearish tone. The pullback means that recent gains stalled at the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A break of 1.4009 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and open 1.4103, a Fibonacci retracement. Short-term support has been defined at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. The key bear trigger is 1.3669, Apr 12 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8843 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 0.8702 @ 05:53 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 0.8650 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430/8397 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP remains closer to recent highs. The cross on Monday probed former resistance at 0.8719, Apr 16 high. Last week's strong gains on Thursday and Friday signal scope for an extension higher and a clear break of 0.8719 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4. This would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement level. Key support to watch has been defined at 0.8589, Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Holds

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.23 50.0% retracement of the Mar 31 - Apr 23 sell-off
• PRICE: 108.85 @ 06:04 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 108.08/107.48 Low Apr 27 / Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 3: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
• SUP 4: 106.37 Low Mar 1

USDJPY traded below pivot support last week at 107.77, a trendline drawn off the Jan 6 low. This week's recovery though suggests the trendline has remained intact and a bullish theme appears to be developing. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA at 108.69 and further gains would open 109.96, Apr 9 high. On the downside, 107.48, Apr 23 low is key support. A break would resume the recent bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.68 High Sep 27, 2018
• RES 2: 132 36 2.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 131.59 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.41 @ 06:19 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 129.57 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 3: 130.22 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.55 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY traded higher yesterday and has confirmed a resumption of its uptrend, trading through former resistance at 130.97, Apr 20 high. The focus is on 132.36, a Fibonacci projection as the cross climbs within its bull channel, drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position reinforcing the current trend direction. Support is seen at yesterday's low of 130.57.

AUDUSD TECHS: In A Range

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7816 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 0.7746 @ 06:23 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 0.7691 Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD remains within its recent and above 0.7691, Apr 22 low. A bullish price structure dominates following the recent break of a trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and a climb back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern. Resistance is at 0.7816, Apr 20 high. A break would open 0.7849, the Mar 18 high. Key short-term support lies at 0.7691, a breach would be bearish.

USDCAD TECHS: March Low Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2491/2515 High Apr 26 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2401 @ 06:32 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.2384 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2251/49 Low Jan 31 2018 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following Monday's sharp move lower that reinforced a bearish theme and narrowed the gap with key support at the March 18th low of 1.2365. This level also represents the current bear trigger. Clearance of 1.2365 would confirm a resumption of broader downtrend that has been in place since March 2020. This would open 1.2251, the Jan 31, 2008 low. Initial resistance is seen at Monday's high of 1.2491.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 172.12 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 171.11/27 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 170.61 @ 04:58 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 170.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 4: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

Bund futures have defined a short term resistance at 171.27, Apr 22 high and just above the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 171.62, Apr 14 high. The recent focus has been on the potential for a move lower. Price still needs to trade through the 170.05 Fibonacci retracement to resume bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Trading Below The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 135.001/050 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 134.840 @ 05:04 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 134.800 Low Apr 22 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 134.660 Low Apr 20 and intraday bear trigger
• SUP 3: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures continue to consolidate and remain above last week's lows. The contract tested its 20-day EMA on Apr 22. Clearance of this average, at 135.001, would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and pave the way for strength towards 135.180, Apr 14 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 134.660, Apr 20 low. A break is required to reinstate the recent bearish focus and the current downward cycle that started Mar 25.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Consolidating

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 112.120 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 112.085 @ 05:11 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 112.060 Low Mar 10 and Apr 20
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures are consolidating. The contract recovered last week from 112.060, Apr 20 low. The 20-day EMA was probed however a clear break is still needed to strengthen a short-term bullish theme. This would signal scope for gains towards 112.150, Apr 8 high. 112.060 marks the key near-term support. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish focus. This would instead open 112.053, a Fibonacci retracement and below.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Key Resistance

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 129.09 High Apr 23
• PRICE: 128.41 @ Close Apr 27
• SUP 1: 128.26/27.81 Low Apr 19 / Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

The Gilt futures are unchanged. The downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are still considered corrective. The contract is trading close to a host of key resistance levels defined by 128.93, Mar 25 high and 129.27, Mar 2 high. The former level has recently been probed but a clear breach of this zone is still required to signal a base and a stronger reversal. Support and the near-term bear trigger is unchanged at 127.81, Apr 14 low.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.42/65 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 147.56 @ Close Apr 27
• SUP 1: 147.41 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract drifted lower again yesterday. Further downside is likely. The break on Apr 13 of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforces a bearish theme paving the way for a move towards 147.56, Mar 5 low that was again probed yesterday. A clear break would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. Initial resistance is seen at 148.65, Apr 22 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Still Trading Below Last Week's High

• RES 4: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 4023.00 Low Aug 16, 2007
• RES 2: 4000.00 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3980.00 High Apr 26 and 27
• PRICE: 3968.00 @ 05:27 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 3919.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3889.00 Low Apr 20
• SUP 3: 3855.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: 3814.45 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 is unchanged. Recent gains found resistance at 4000.00 and a sell-off dominated the Apr 20 session. The trend is overbought and any S/T corrective pullback would allow this to unwind. The 20-day EMA is at 3919.40 . A clear break, together with a move below 3889.00, Apr 20 low would signal scope for a deeper sell-off towards the 50-day EMA at 3814.45. For bulls, a break of 4000.00, Apr 16 high would resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020
• RES 3: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $66.80/68.08 - High Apr 27 / High Apr 20
• PRICE: $66.60 @ 06:33 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $64.58/63.62 - Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $62.41 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 3: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and a key support

Brent crude futures found resistance last week at $68.08, Apr 20 high and price remains below this key short-term resistance. A recent bullish focus is on hold following the pullback from $68.08 and price has recently probed the 20-day EMA. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $63.62. For bulls, clearance of $68.08 would reinstate a bullish focus and open $69.50, Mar 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto This Week's Gains

• RES 4: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.15 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $65.99 - Former trendline support drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: $64.38 - High Apr 20
• PRICE: $63.18 @ 06:40 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $60.61 - Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: $60.26 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $58.77 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.68 - Low Apr 5

WTI futures last week found resistance at $64.38, Apr 20 high. A recent bullish focus remains on hold, although gains this week have retraced a large section of the Apr 20 - 26 downleg. Price recently probed the 20-day EMA. A clear break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $60.26. For bulls, clearance of the Apr 20 high reinstates a bullish focus and would open $66.15, Mar 15 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1797.9 - High Apr 22
• PRICE: $1769.6 @ 06:57 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $1763.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

Gold is softer this week but remains above support and underlying conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal recently cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and importantly remains above the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the recent break higher confirmed a double bottom reversal. Attention is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. Initial support is at $1763.4.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 2: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $26.645 - High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.985 @ 07:21 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 4: $23.781 - Low Mar 31

Silver short-term bullish conditions remain intact following recent gains and despite the recent inability to extend gains. The break higher on Apr 21 resulted in a probe of resistance at $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open $26.941, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low. Initial support is at $25.636.