MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Remain Sensitive to Sell-Offs

Price Signal Summary – Gilts Remain Sensitive to Sell-Offs

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the pullback last Thursday appears to have been a correction. The contract also traded to a fresh cycle high that day, reinforcing a bullish theme. Recent gains have also resulted in a break of 5333.50, Apr 1 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode. The recent trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The contract has recently cleared a key hurdle at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and yesterday’s gains reinforces current bullish trend conditions. 1.2754 has been cleared, 76.4% of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg. This reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.2803 next. USDJPY has traded higher today and the current bull cycle remains in play. Resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off, has been breached. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact and for now the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Key supports at 1.3642, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, have been pierced. A clear break of both price points is required to threaten the bullish theme.
• Gold is trading just ahead of its recent low. The medium-term trend structure remains bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. The trend direction remains down and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards $75.64, the Mar 11 low.
• A bear cycle in Bund futures, that started off the May 16 high of 132.11, remains in play. Today’s move to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. Gilt futures remain soft following the recent strong sell-off. The contract has traded through the 97.00 handle and breached last week’s low at 96.60 (May 24). A continuation lower would suggest scope for an extension towards 96.00, and a support around 95.87, the May 1 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight An Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0895 High May 16
• PRICE: 1.0846 @ 05:47 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.0805 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 1.0796 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

Recent weakness in EURUSD appears to be a correction. The current trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish following a bear channel breakout on May 15 - price cleared the top of a channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.0933 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0796, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2754 @ 06:03 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.2653/1.2615 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 3: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2423 Low Apr 24

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and yesterday’s gains reinforces current bullish trend conditions. 1.2754 has been cleared, 76.4% of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg. This reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.2803 next, the Mar 21 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2653, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8621 1.0% High May 9 and 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8547 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8511 @ 16:31 BST May 28
• SUP 1: 0.8495 Low May 28
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023

EURGBP remains soft and the cross is trading just ahead of its recent lows. The latest impulsive bear leg has resulted in a print below key pivot support at the 0.8500 handle. An important support zone also lies between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear break of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 0.8547, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 157.40 Intraday high
• PRICE: 157.26 @ 06:41 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 155.94/154.26 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 153.33 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

USDJPY has traded higher today and the current bull cycle remains in play. Resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off, has been breached. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. For bears, a reversal lower would again refocus attention on 154.26, the 50-day EMA, and 153.33, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle High

• RES 4: 173.03 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 192.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.74 High May 28 and intraday high
• PRICE: 170.49 @ 06:56 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 168.63/69 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 166.62 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3

EURJPY maintains a firmer short-term tone and the cross traded higher yesterday. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and key resistance. Initial support to watch lies at 168.63, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would expose key trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 166.62. A clear breach of this line would highlight a stronger reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6655 @ 07:59 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 0.6592 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 0.6584 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 4: 0.6465/6407 Low May 1 / Low Apr 22

The bullish cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19 remains in play and the recent move down appears to have been a correction. The pair has recently breached a key short-term hurdle at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and a resumption of gains would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6584, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3655 @ 08:09 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact and for now the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Key supports at 1.3642, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, have been pierced. A clear break of both price points is required to threaten the bullish theme and this would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Clears The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 132.89 38.2% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 25 bear cycle
• RES 3: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 131.32/132.11 50-day EMA / High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.69 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.38 @ 05:23 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 129.37 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.42 Low Nov 1 ‘23 (cont)

A bear cycle in Bund futures, that started off the May 16 high of 132.11, remains in play. Today’s move to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has breached the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year and opens 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 130.69, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 117.880 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 117.134/440 High 50-day EMA / High May 16
• RES 1: 116.671 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.970 @ 05:37 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 115.950 Low May 24 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.710 Low Feb 29 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.410 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

Bobl futures remain soft following last week’s breach of support and the bear trigger at 116.230, the Apr 30 low. The contract is trading at its recent lows and this signals scope for a continuation of the bear cycle near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 115.710, the Feb 29 low (cont) and a key support. Initial resistance is seen at 116.671, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance and the reversal trigger is at 117.440, the May 16 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2 105.395 High May 31
• RES 1: 105.165/376 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 104.935 @ 05:43 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 104.880 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.745 Low Sep 26 2023 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 4: 104.683 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains down. Last week’s bearish price action resulted in a break of key support and a bear trigger at 105.045, the Apr 30 low. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 104.800, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.165, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 98.89 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 98.25 High May
• RES 2: 98.12 High May 17
• RES 1: 97.44 High May 23
• PRICE: 96.77 @ Close May 28
• SUP 1: 96.11 1.618 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 96.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 95.87 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 95.64 2.00 proj of the May 16 - 20- 21 price swing

Gilt futures remain soft following the recent strong sell-off. The contract has traded through the 97.00 handle and breached last week’s low at 96.60 (May 24). A continuation lower would suggest scope for an extension towards 96.00, and a support around 95.87, the May 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is 97.44, the May 23 high. A break of this level would allow for a stronger near-term recovery, potentially towards resistance at 98.12, the May 21 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 120.28 High Mar 14 and the bull rally
• RES 3: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 119.10 High Apr 10 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.21/119.00 High May 21 / 16
• PRICE: 116.80 @ 08:11 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 116.66/30 Intraday low / Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 115.76 Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

BTP futures traded higher on May 15 and breached 118.61, the May 6 high. However, the contract has pulled back from its recent highs and this has exposed support at 116.94, the May 15 low. It has today been breached and marks a bearish development, opening 115.76, the Apr 25 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is at 119.10, the Apr 10 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme and open 120.28, the Mar 14 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 2: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5035.00 @ 06:18 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 4962.80 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: 4862.00 Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

Eurostoxx 50 futures are in consolidation mode. The recent trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The contract has recently cleared a key hurdle at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This opens 5127.70 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA has been pierced. The next level to watch is 4962.80, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5372.73 1.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5368.25 High May 23
• PRICE: 5304.25 @ 07:29 BST May 29
• SUP 1: 5265.28 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5205.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the pullback last Thursday appears to have been a correction. The contract also traded to a fresh cycle high that day, reinforcing a bullish theme. Recent gains have also resulted in a break of 5333.50, Apr 1 high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 5372.73, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. Initial support is 5265.28, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $91.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.89/88.64 - High May 1 / High Apr 26
• PRICE: $84.39 @ 07:00 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $80.65 - Low May 24
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures have recovered from their most recent low and the contract traded higher again yesterday. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. The trend condition is bearish and moving average studies reinforce this - they have recently crossed and are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of the bear leg would open $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $88.64, the Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.90 - High May 1
• PRICE: $80.10 @ 07:18 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $76.15 - Low May 24
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $73.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
• SUP 4: $71.33 - Low Feb 5

WTI futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. The trend direction remains down and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards $75.64, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.16, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $83.63, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition

• RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• PRICE: $2352.9 @ 07:23 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $2304.2 - 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is trading just ahead of its recent low. The medium-term trend structure remains bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at $2304.2, represents a key support. A clear break of it would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $35.745 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.887 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20
• PRICE: $32.192 @ 08:12 BST May 29
• SUP 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $29.752 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $27.997/26.018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver maintains a bullish theme and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to partially unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.887 next, a Fibonacci projection. A key support zone to watch lies between $29.752-27.997, the 20- and 50-day EMA values.