MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Holds Bullish, Sights Set on $2070.4

Price Signal Summary – Gold Holds Bullish, Sights Set on $2070.4

• The current trend condition in S&P E-minis remains bullish. Price has recently breached 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend and price is trading at its recent highs. The continued appreciation strengthens the bullish significance of the recent break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance.
• GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and the pullback Friday is - for now - considered corrective. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of 1.2525, the Apr 4 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and reinforcing the bullish significance of the recent breach of 1.2448. USDJPY traded higher Friday and the pair has started this week’s session on a firmer note. Resistance at 134.05, the Apr 12 high has been pierced. This signals potential for a continuation higher and opens 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. AUDUSD topped the 50-day EMA last but has failed to remain above the average. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, Friday’s high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Last Thursday’s break of resistance at $2032.1, Apr 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are set on the next key resistance at $2070.4. WTI futures remain in a bull cycle. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached.
• Bund futures ended last week’s session on a softer note and price is trading at its recent lows. The contract is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.70, and has breached key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. The break of this level has opened 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Friday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. The break paves the way for an extension to 102.00 and 101.12, a Fibonacci retracement.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fades Off Fresh YTD High But Trend Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.1274 61.8% of the Jun 1 2021 - Sep 28 2022 bear trend
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and Friday’s high
• PRICE: 1.0983 @ 05:51 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.09622 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0911/0879 Low Apr 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0784 50-day EMA

Despite the pullback from Friday’s high, EURUSD remains in an uptrend. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and more importantly, has confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started Sep 28 2022. The focus is on 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185 further out, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0879.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2695 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2546 High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2412 @ 06:03 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.2362 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2246 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2191 Low Mar 24

GBPUSD remains in an uptrend and the pullback Friday is - for now - considered corrective. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of 1.2525, the Apr 4 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and reinforcing the bullish significance of the recent breach of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 months range. The focus is on 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. On the downside, initial key short-term support is 1.2362, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8872 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8854 @ 06:21 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 0.8801 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP traded higher Friday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The cross has breached resistance at 0.8853, a trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high. Resistance at 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced too - a clear break of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support lies at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. Initial firm support lies at 0.8801, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Higher

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.22 Intraday high
• PRICE: 134.04 @ 06:41 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 132.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDJPY traded higher Friday and the pair has started this week’s session on a firmer note. Resistance at 134.05, the Apr 12 high has been pierced. This signals potential for a continuation higher and opens 134.75, a Fibonacci retracement point. The current bull cycle does appear to be a correction. However, a break of support at 132.02, the Apr 13 low, is required to signal a bearish reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Oct 21 and key resistance
• RES 1: 147.45 High Oct 31 And Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.22 @ 07:14 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 146.08/145.77 Low Apr 13 / 12
• SUP 2: 144.47 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY printed a new weekly high Friday and again today as the cross extends the break of the 146.00 handle. The recent breach of 145.57, Mar 2 high, strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 147.71, the Oct 31 2022 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 142.55, the Apr 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 144.47, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Unable So Far To Remain Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6736/0.6806 50-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6716 @ 08:16 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 0.6685/6620 Low Apr 14 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD topped the 50-day EMA last but has failed to remain above the average. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, Friday’s high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 0.6620, the Apr 10 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bearish development and leave the bear trigger at 0.6565 exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Support At The February Lows Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 1.3549 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3407/3448 Low Apr 4 / High Apr 13
• PRICE: 1.3347 @ 08:20 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.3302 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022

USDCAD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low. Note that the RSI is close to flagging the pair as technically oversold for the first time in over 18 months. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3407.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 136.88/138.09 High Apr 11 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.70 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.38 @ 05:12 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 2: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 132.37 Low Mar 10

Bund futures ended last week’s session on a softer note and price is trading at its recent lows. The contract is through the 20-day EMA, at 135.70, and has breached key short-term support at 134.70, the Mar 31 low. The break of this level has opened 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 135.70.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 118.420/119.190 High Apr 11 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.869 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.190 @ 05:13 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 117.080 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures traded lower again Friday and the outlook remains bearish. The contract has breached support at 117.200, the Mar 31 low. This reinforces the bearish theme and opens 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, the Mar 27 high and the trigger for a stronger short-term climb. Initial resistance is seen at 117.869, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Heading South

• RES 4: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 106.315 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.706/920 20-day EMA / High Apr 11
• PRICE: 105.390 @ 05:39 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 105.355 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend. The move lower Friday resulted in a break of support at 105.465, the Mar 31 low. This reinforces the current bearish theme and paves the way for a test of 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a recent bullish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 105.706, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Breaches Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 3: 104.97 High Mar 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 104.16 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 103.58 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 102.21 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 100.91 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 4: 100.06 Low Mar 9

A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Friday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 102.74, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. The break paves the way for an extension to 102.00 and 101.12, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 103.58, the Apr 14 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Clears Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 1: 114.91 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.92 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures ended last week’s session on a bearish note. The contract has breached support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low. The break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and attention is on 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement level. Clearance of this price point would open 113.22, the Mar 15 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance at 114.91, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is far off at 117.17, the Mar 24 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4346.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4337.00 @ 06:14 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 4270.00 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 4221 30 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4158.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend and price is trading at its recent highs. The continued appreciation strengthens the bullish significance of the recent break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. Sights are on 4381.50, the Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4221.13, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4189.00 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 4171.50 @ 07:16 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 4098.58 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4065.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The current trend condition in S&P E-minis remains bullish. Price has recently breached 4119.50, Mar 6 high, reinforcing a positive theme. The move higher also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension to 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4065.03, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $87.49 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $86.24 @ 06:52 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $83.50 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures remain firm following last week’s gains and break of resistance at $86.44, the Apr 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $83.50, the Apr 3 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $89.23 - High Aug 25 2022
• RES 3: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 2: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 1: $83.53 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• PRICE: $82.45 @ 07:07 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $79.00 - Low Apr 3 and gap high on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at $81.81, the Apr 4 high. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and note that an important resistance at $83.04, the Jan 23 high, has also been breached. The focus is on $85.01, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $79.00, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2048.7 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $2012.1 @ 07:21 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $1981.7 - Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: $1949.7 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: $1930.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Last Thursday’s break of resistance at $2032.1, Apr 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are set on the next key resistance at $2070.4, the Mar 8 2022 high. This is just ahead of the all-time high of $2075.5. Key short-term support has been defined at $1981.7, the Apr 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14
• PRICE: $25.495 @ 08:08 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: $25.044 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: $24.229 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.239 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $24.229, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.