MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Conditions Bearish For Now

Price Signal Summary – Gold Trend Conditions Bearish For Now

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and in the process cleared recent highs to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, has been pierced. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle continues to point north. Resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection.
• GBPUSD traded lower Friday. Price has cleared a number of important short-term supports, including the 50-day EMA, at 1.2143. The close below the average has strengthened a bearish theme. This signals scope for a move towards 1.2000 and key support at 1.1842, Jan 6 low. USDJPY rallied Friday and the pair has gapped higher today. Attention turns to resistance at 132.96, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact, however, the sharp move lower late last week highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought condition in the trend to unwind. Price is approaching support at 0.6875, the 50-day EMA, where a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, as the yellow metal enters a corrective cycle. This follows a strong sell-off on Thursday and Friday and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1853.1. This average represents a key support. A sharp sell-off on Friday in WTI futures has reinforced current bearish conditions. The move lower has exposed $72.74, Jan 5 low and the next key support. A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme and expose $70.56.
• Bund futures have pulled back from last week’s highs and price is once again trading just below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Key short-term support to watch lies at 136.38, the Jan 30 low where a break would strengthen a bearish condition and pave the way for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared 106.00 and more importantly breached 107.06, the Nov 24 and a key resistance. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.1121 1.382 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 2: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 1: 1.0940/1.1033 High Feb 3 / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 1.0793 @ 05:38 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 1.0781 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low Jan 18
• SUP 3: 1.0665 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0634 Low Jan 9

EURUSD traded lower into the Friday close, extending Thursday’s bearish price action. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. A move lower is considered corrective and an extension lower would open 1.0665, the 50-day EMA. This average is a key support. The broader uptrend remains intact. Last week’s high of 1.1033 on Feb2, marks the bull trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2401/2448 High Feb 2 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2265 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.2143 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2066 @ 06:12 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 1.2000/1985 Round number support / 76.4% of Jan 6-23 rally
• SUP 2: 1.1954 3.0% 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1800 Round number support

GBPUSD traded lower Friday. Price has cleared a number of important short-term supports, including the 50-day EMA, at 1.2143. The close below the average has strengthened a bearish theme. This signals scope for a move towards 1.2000 and key support at 1.1842, Jan 6 low. A break of the latter would highlight a potential trend reversal. Initial firm resistance is 1.2265, Friday’s high. Key resistance is seen at 1.2448, Jan 23 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.9009 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8945 High Feb 6
• PRICE: 0.8967 @ 16:19 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 0.8875/0.8852 Low Feb 2 / High Jan 25
• SUP 2: 0.8839 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8782 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish following last week’s gains. The cross has cleared resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a recent bull trigger. The clear breach of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early December last year and sights are on 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. First key support to watch lies at 0.8828, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 134.77 High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• RES 2: 132.96 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.56 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.87 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 130.34 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support

USDJPY rallied Friday and the pair has gapped higher today. Attention turns to resistance at 132.96, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high. Gains are considered corrective - for now - and this is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 142.99 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.19 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 141.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.94/06 Low Feb 3 and a key support / Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19

EURJPY has traded higher today and pierced resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger reversal plus confirm a recent bull flag on the daily chart. This would open 144.53, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 139.94, the Feb 3 low. A break would be bearish.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6925 @ 08:13 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 0.6873 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6728 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact, however, the sharp move lower late last week highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought condition in the trend to unwind. Price is approaching support at 0.6875, the 50-day EMA, where a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The broader uptrend remains intact. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3472/3521 High Jan 31 / 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3428 @ 08:23 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 1.3312/3262 Low Feb 3 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact despite the latest move higher - short-term gains are most likely a correction. A resumption of weakness and a break of 1.3262, the Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a move towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.91/139.86 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 137.58 @ 05:06 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 137.42/136.38 Intraday low / Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 135.08 Low Jan 4

Bund futures have pulled back from last week’s highs and price is once again trading just below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Key short-term support to watch lies at 136.38, the Jan 30 low where a break would strengthen a bearish condition and pave the way for a deeper pullback. On the upside, a breach of last Thursday’s high of 139.86 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would expose the 140.73 key resistance, the Jan 19 high.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 119.230 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 2: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 117.815/118.670 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 117.620 @ 05:14 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 117.310/117.020 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 30 and a key support
• SUP 2: 116.878 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 116.730 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher Thursday, however, price has since pulled back. Key short-term support to watch lies at 117.020, the Jan 30 low. A return below this price point would be viewed as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper short-term pullback. The key resistance zone to watch is at 118.670-880, the Feb 2 and Jan 19 highs respectively. A break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jan 2.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Trading Below The Key Resistance Zone

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.365 Low Dec 13
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.130/106.155 High Feb 2 / High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.860 @ 05:33 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 105.700 Low Feb 2
• SUP 2: 105.640 Low Feb 1 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.548 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 105.480 Low Jan 3

Schatz futures traded sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared a number of short-term resistance points. The contract has since pulled back. Key resistance has been defined at 106.130, the Feb 2 high and 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this resistance zone would strengthen a bullish condition and highlight a stronger reversal. Key support to watch lies at 105.640, the Jan 1 low.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 109.28 2.382 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 108.96 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 108.44 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 107.78/108.00 High Feb 2 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 107.03 @ Close Feb 3
• SUP 1: 105.99 High Jan 25 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 105.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 104.04 Low Jan 30 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 103.21 Low Jan 17

Gilt futures traded sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared 106.00 and more importantly breached 107.06, the Nov 24 and a key resistance. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the 108.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 104.04, the Jan 30 low. A break of this level would highlight a short-term top.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Sights Remain On The Key Resistance Zone

• RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.56/96 High Jan 19 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 118.18 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 116.52 @ Close Feb 3
• SUP 1: 115.03/113.47 High Jan 30 / Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

BTP futures traded sharply higher Thursday and the contract breached resistance at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high. A break of this zone would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 113.47, the Jan 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trend Conditions Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4335.50 Hgh Jan 6 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4303.20 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• PRICE: 4226.00 @ 05:42 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 4139.50/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4016.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle continues to point north. Resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy correction. A break of 4097.00, the Jan 19 low, would signal the start of a short-term bear cycle.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 1: 4208.50 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4129.25 @ 08:07 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 4007.50/3985.04 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and in the process cleared recent highs to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of a broader uptrend and open 4250.00, the Aug 26 2022 high. Initial firm support lies at 4007.50, the Jan 31 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Bearish Conditions Prevail

• RES 4: $92.64 - High Nov 16
• RES 3: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 2: $86.21/89.00 - High Feb 1 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.17 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $80.21 @ 06:57 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: $79.61 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures traded sharply lower again Friday, confirming an extension of the current bear cycle. The latest move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation lower would open $77.77, the Jan 5 low and a key support. A break would expose $75.89, the Dec 12 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $84.17, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would ease the current bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Sharp Sell-Off Reinforces Bearish Condition

• RES 4: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 3: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.49/82.66 - High Jan 30 / High Jan 18
• RES 1: $78.56 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $73.63 @ 07:04 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: $72.74 - Low Jan 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

A sharp sell-off on Friday in WTI futures has reinforced current bearish conditions. The move lower has exposed $72.74, Jan 5 low and the next key support. A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme and expose $70.56, the Dec 9 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights current market sentiment. Initial firm resistance is seen at $78.56, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1903.4/1959.7 - 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: $1876.7@ 07:22 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: $11861.4- Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: $1853.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28

Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, as the yellow metal enters a corrective cycle. This follows a strong sell-off on Thursday and Friday and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1853.1. This average represents a key support and if breached, would strengthen a bearish chase and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at $1959.7, the Feb 2 high.

SILVER TECHS: Range Breakout

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.568 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.602 @ 08:33 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: $21.934 - 38.2% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $21.099 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

A sharp sell-off in Silver on Friday resulted in a break of $22.557, the Dec 16. Price has also traded below the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. The break lower highlights a range breakout and if this is correct, it warns of a short-term trend reversal. A continuation lower would open $21.934 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $23.568, the 20-day EMA ahead of $24.637, the Feb 2 high.