MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Markets on Watch for Reversal Pattern in JPY

Price Signal Summary – Markets on Watch for Reversal Pattern in JPY

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher.
• USDJPY remains above this week’s low. Attention is on Tuesday’s price pattern - a dragonfly doji candle - that highlights a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it signals scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95. The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recovery from Wednesday’s low is a positive development. The cross has tested support at the 20-day EMA - at 161.54. USDCAD rallies were sold Wednesday and the pair is trading lower today. Price is through support at the 50-day EMA and is approaching trendline support at 1.3674 - drawn from the Jul 14 low. A break of this line would undermine the recent bullish theme.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The latest recovery signals scope for a test of key short-term resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and recent gains appear to be a correction. The break lower last week marked an extension of the downtrend that started late September and this has maintained a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 4. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs, despite yesterday’s move lower. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has recently been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98 next, the May 22 high on the continuation chart.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Overbought But Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005/45 High Aug 11 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.0965 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 1.0904 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 1.0825/0756 Low Nov 17 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0718 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend condition in EURUSD is bullish and sights are on 1.1005, Aug 11 high and 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Note that the 14-day RSI has spilled over 70, flagging a technically overbought condition in the pair, partially alleviated by yesterday’s move lower. A corrective pullback would unwind this condition. Initial support lies at 1.0825, Nov 17 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2720 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2654 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2589 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2559 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 1.2512 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 1.2374/2341 Low Nov 17 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2138 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish. This week’s move higher has resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.2506, the Nov 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.2589, 50.0% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. On the downside, initial support to watch has been defined at 1.2374, the Nov 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8722 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 0.8692 Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 0.8685/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish, however, the sharp sell-off Tuesday highlights the beginning of a short-term corrective cycle. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8685. The average remains intact, however, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.8768, the Nov 20 high. A breach would resume the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Doji Candle Pattern Signals A Reversal

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 1: 150.00 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 149.02 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 147.15 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 146.19 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY remains above this week’s low. Attention is on Tuesday’s price pattern - a dragonfly doji candle - that highlights a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it signals scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high. On the downside, a break of Tuesday's 147.15 low, would cancel the pattern and instead expose 146.19, trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Holds For Now

• RES 4: 166.97 1.50 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 1: 163.56/164.30 High Nov 20 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 162.59 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 161.25 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 159.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recovery from Wednesday’s low is a positive development. The cross has tested support at the 20-day EMA - at 161.54. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open the 50-day EMA, at 159.84. On the upside, a continuation higher would refocus attention on 164.30, the Nov 16 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 0.6739 High Jul 31
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6670 3.0% 10-dma env / 61.8% of Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6589/6616 High Nov 21 / High Oct 8
• PRICE: 0.6569 @ 07:52 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 0.6436/6339 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 nand the bear trigger

The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point north and this week’s gains reinforce the bullish theme. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. The breach is an important short-term bullish development and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term towards 0.6616 next, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 0.6436, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 1.4013 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 1.3667 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 1.3674 Trendline drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 2: 1.3629 Low Nov 6 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3591 38.2% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD rallies were sold Wednesday and the pair is trading lower today. Price is through support at the 50-day EMA and is approaching trendline support at 1.3674 - drawn from the Jul 14 low. A break of this line would undermine the recent bullish theme. Note that 1.3629 also represents an important support, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a short-term reversal. Initial resistance to watch is at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.13 1.382 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 131.74 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 131.32 @ 05:02 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 130.36/129.94 Low Nov 15 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13, a 1.382 projection of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 / 13 low. A breach of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.369 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.230 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 116.790 @ 05:32 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 116.509/000 20-day EMA / Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the pullback from last week’s high is considered corrective. Recent gains signal a resumption of the uptrend and resistance at 116.940, the Nov 3 high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle paves the way for a climb towards 117.610, the Sep 1 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 116.509, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 116.00, the Nov 3 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 105.145/265 High Nov 22 / 17
• PRICE: 105.055 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 104.925 Low Nov 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bullish tone despite the latest pullback from 105.265, the Nov 17 high. A bullish engulfing candle was confirmed on Nov 14. If correct, the pattern continues to signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a breach of 104.925, the Nov 14 low, would instead reinstate a bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 99.73 Low Apr 19 (cont)
• RES 3: 99.26 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 98.98 High May 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 97.99 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 96.69 @ Close Nov 23
• SUP 1: 95.93 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 94.80/58 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: 93.44 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 92.63 Low Nov 1

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs, despite yesterday’s move lower. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has recently been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98 next, the May 22 high on the continuation chart, and potentially 99.26, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont). On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bulls Are Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 114.29 @ Close Nov 23
• SUP 1: 113.07/111.83 Low Nov 15 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures are unchanged. A bull cycle remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 19. Potential exists for a climb towards 115.56, Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 111.83, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• RES 1: 4368.00 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 4366.00 @ 06:24 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4251.50/4143.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 3: 4063.00 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 4001.00 Low Oct 27 and bear trigger

A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. Note that resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, has also been cleared, reinforcing the bullish theme. The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4251.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4580.50 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 4569.75 @ 14:31 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4441.90 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4407.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4441.90, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4:$93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 2: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.97 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $81.00 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $76.60 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.82 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.68 - Low Jun 23

Brent futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. This signals scope for $75.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish threat. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $80.39 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $78.55 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.39 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and recent gains appear to be a correction. The break lower last week marked an extension of the downtrend that started late September and this has maintained a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is unchanged at $79.65, Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Nov 7 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1995.5 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $1966.63/1946.8 - 20- and 50-day EMA / Low Oct 16
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The latest recovery signals scope for a test of key short-term resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards $2022.2, the May 15 high. Key support has been defined at $1931.7, the Nov 13 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Phase Remains In Play

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $24.146 - High Nov 17
• PRICE: $23.674 @ 08:13 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $22.988 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883/573 - Low Nov 13 and a key support / Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver is in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains in play and last week’s strong gains reinforced this theme. The metal has cleared resistance at $23.774, the Sep 22 high and has pierced the $24.00 handle. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.014, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, initial support lies at $22.988, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at $21.883.