MNI Daily Technical Analysis - Oil Futures Remain Bullish

Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Remain Bullish Following Today's Gap Higher

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis ended last week on a bullish note. Price has breached 4119.50, reinforcing the bullish conditions. The move higher exposes 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. Clearance of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 4205.50, Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support is at 4027.87, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract remains bullish. Price has pierced resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4146.30, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD remains below last week’s 1.0926 high. Resistance at 1.0930 is intact - for now - the Mar 23 high. This level represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls and a break would reinstate the recent bull theme and open 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0761 (20-day EMA) and 1.0706 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish. Short-term weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective and support to watch lies at 1.2216, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Recent gains have exposed resistance at 1.2448, Jan 23 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A break would highlight a 3 months range breakout and strengthen bullish conditions. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and last week’s gains are considered corrective. However, the 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.34 and represents a key S/T hurdle for bulls. A clear break would alter the picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger is at 129.64, the Mar 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Initial support lies at 132.21, the Mar 3.
• On the commodity front, trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and today’s gap higher at the open, strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.69, just above resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. Initial support lies at $77.60, 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally .
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower as the contract extended the pullback from 139.54, Mar 24 high. Price has breached a key support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.56. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has been tested. A breach of this support would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high. Gilt futures traded lower again Friday and the contract maintains a bearish short-term tone. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.68. The average represents an important short-term support and the clear break signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 104.47, last Thursday’s intraday high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching First Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0926/0930 High Mar 30 and 31 / High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.0795 @ 05:41 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.0788 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0761 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0706 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0631 Low Mar 20

EURUSD is starting the week on a softer note as the pair pulls away from last week’s 1.0926 high. Resistance at 1.0930 remains intact, Mar 23 high. This level represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls and a break would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0761 (20-day EMA) and 1.0706 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pulls Back From Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 1.2558 High Jun 9 2022
• RES 3: 1.2524 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2342/2423 Intraday high / High Mar 31
• PRICE: 1.2280 @ 06:02 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.2216 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 1.2147 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD is trading lower today as the pair pulls back from last week’s highs. The move lower is considered corrective - for now - and support to watch lies at 1.2216, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Recent gains have exposed resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and a key medium-term hurdle for bulls. A break would highlight a 3 months range breakout and strengthen bullish conditions.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8866/78 High Mar 23 / Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8787 @ 06:26 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 0.8771 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and the cross continues to trade below 0.8866, the Mar 23 high. Recent gains, between Mar 15 - 23, highlight a bullish picture and attention is on a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8878. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. Key support to watch is unchanged at 0.8719, Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.77 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 133.39 @ 06:39 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 132.21/130.76 Low Mar 30 / 29
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and last week’s gains are considered corrective. However, the 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.34 and represents a key S/T hurdle for bulls. A clear break, if seen, would alter the picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger is at 129.64, the Mar 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
• PRICE: 144.12 @ 06:57 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 143.63 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 142.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.79 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 141.05 Low Mar 28

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs. The cross has pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a likely uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 142.72, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6751 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6679 @ 08:00 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD continues to consolidate. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish - recent gains, since Mar 10, still appear to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 0.6751. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3805/3862 High Mar 24 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3590/3637 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.3512 @ 08:06 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
• SUP 2: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 4: 1.3334 Low Feb 15

The current bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair continues to weaken. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, the 50% retracement for the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for a continuation lower and note that 1.3491, the 61.8% retracement, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 1.3442, the Feb 20 / 21 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3590, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 136.77 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 135.80 @ 05:17 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 134.70 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower as the contract extended the pullback from 139.54, Mar 24 high. Price has breached a key support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.56. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 118.640 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 117.880 @ 05:39 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 117.280 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures are trading closer to recent lows and maintain a softer tone. An important pivot support has been breached at 117.773 which is the 20-day EMA. Additionally, support at 117.300, the Mar 22 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen current bearish conditions and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 118.640, the Mar 30 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Trend Needles Points South

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 106.095 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 105.690 @ 05:58 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 105.465 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures traded lower last week, breaching a key support at 105.713, the 20-day EMA. Price has also traded through support at 105.575, the Mar 22, where a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial resistance is seen at 106.095, last Thursday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 105.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 104.47 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 103.35 @ Close Mar 31
• SUP 1: 102.74 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

Gilt futures traded lower again Friday and the contract maintains a bearish short-term tone. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.68. The average represents an important short-term support and the clear break signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 104.47, last Thursday’s intraday high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Continues To Challenge Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.08 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 115.35 @ Close Apr 3
• SUP 1: 114.04 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.17, the Mar 24 high and the contract traded lower last week. The short-term outlook is bullish and the recent pullback still appears corrective. However, price has traded through support at 114.74, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a continuation lower and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 116.08, the Mar 30 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4275.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4254.00 @ 09:55 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 4221.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4146.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4083.00 Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has pierced resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4146.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4142.50 High Mar 31
• PRICE: 4124.25 @ 07:01 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: 4078.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4027.87 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis ended last week on a bullish note and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has breached resistance at 4119.50, reinforcing the bullish conditions. The move higher exposes 4148.48, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4027.87, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Gap Higher Reinforces Bullish Condition

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.87 - High Jan 27
• RES 1: $86.44 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $84.05 @ 05:41 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: $82.57 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $78.25 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 4: $76.32 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend

Brent futures have gapped sharply higher at today’s open, touching a high of $86.44 - just above $86.17, the Mar 7 high. The move higher confirms an extension of the recent recovery that started from the Mar 20 low. A clear break of $86.17 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high. A large gap has appeared on the daily chart - key support lies at $79.95, Friday’s high and the gap low.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $81.04 - High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $77.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $74.94 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $79.64 @ 06:02 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: $77.60 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $70.98 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and today’s gap higher at the open, strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.69, just above resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1952.2 @ 07:14 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: $1936.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1896.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20 2022
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.166 - High Mar 31
• PRICE: $23.727 @ 08:14 BST Apr 3
• SUP 1: $22.828 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: $22.326 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

Silver remains firm following last week’s gains. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective and would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains signal scope for a climb towards $24.637, the Feb 2 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $22.828, the Mar 28 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at $22.326.