MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Overbought EUR/USD Condition Continues to Unwind

Price Signal Summary - Overbought EUR/USD Condition Continues to Unwind

• The E-mini S&P contract is trading below last week’s high of 4609.25 (Jul 19). Prices have recently tested the top of the bull channel drawn off the March 13 low - the channel top intersects at 4622.12 today. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode but continue to trade closer to their recent highs and price is holding above the 50-day EMA at 4351.00. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high.
• EURUSD traded lower yesterday. The recent pullback appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch is 1.1060, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction. The latest pullback in EURGBP appears to be a correction. The short-term uptrend remains intact and momentum is pointed higher for now, signalling scope for an extension towards the 100-dma of 0.8700 and congestion resistance at 0.8719. USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. Sights are on 142.08, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the early July downleg. A break would open 143.22.
• Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces current conditions. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday's rally confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at $81.44.
• Bund futures traded higher yesterday but remain below last week’s peak. For now, the recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bullish environment. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s print above resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforces current positive conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1355 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1147/1229 High Jul 24 / 20
• PRICE: 1.1070 @ 05:51 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.1060 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1012 High Jun 22
• SUP 3: 1.1004 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 1.0964 50-day EMA

EURUSD traded lower yesterday. The recent pullback appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch is 1.1060, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction, towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0964. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1276, the Jul 18 high. First resistance is at 1.1147, Monday’s high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Continuation Lower Would Expose The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3237 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.2965 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.2832 @ 06:02 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.2801/2798 61.8% of the Jun-Jul Upleg / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 1.2751 Low Jul 10
• SUP 3: 1.2719 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2685 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low

GBPUSD traded lower Monday, extending the losing streak to seven consecutive sessions (the longest since August last year). Price has pierced 1.2801 - the 61.8% retracement for the Jun-Jul upleg. A clear break would expose the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2719. The base of the bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low, crosses at 1.2685 today and represents a key trend support. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2965, the Jul 20 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8700 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8626 @ 06:14 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.8621 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8600 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8564 Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears to be a correction. The short-term uptrend remains intact and momentum is pointed higher for now, signalling scope for an extension towards the 100-dma of 0.8700 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8600, the 20-day EMA. A move through this average would highlight a stronger reversal and expose key support at and bear trigger at 0.8504, the Jul 11 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 142.78 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 142.08 61.8% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 141.43 @ 06:35 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 139.75 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 138.77 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. Sights are on 142.08, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the early July downleg. A break would open 143.22, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, key support has been defined at 137.25, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch lies at 139.75, the Jul 21 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.05 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 156.61 @ 06:40 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 155.59 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 154.78 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 153.64/49 50-day EMA / Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 151.61 High May 2

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and the price sequence of higher highs and and higher lows remains intact. Attention is on the bull trigger at 158.00, the Jun 28 high. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key trendline support, drawn from the Mar 24 low, intersects at 154.78.

AUDUSD TECHS: Finds Some Support For Now

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - May 31 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6936 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6788/6847 High Jul 21 / 20
• PRICE: 0.6770 @ 07:54 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.6719/15 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 0.6651 Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
• SUP 4: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support

AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle but has managed to find some support. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 0.6719. An extension lower would pave the way for a move towards 0.6651, the Jul 11 low. Further out, the next key support level lies at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention initially on 0.6847, the Jul 20 high. The key bull trigger is at 0.6900, the Jun 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3299 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3243 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 1.3153 @ 07:57 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD continues to trade above key short-term support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend and a break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3299, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 135.61 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 134.01 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 133.54 @ 05:20 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 132.60 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 132.23 61.8% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 131.92 Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally

Bund futures traded higher yesterday but remain below last week’s peak. For now, the recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bullish environment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 135.00, the Jun 27 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Jul 10. Initial support to watch lies at 132.60, the Jul 17 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.090/333 High Jul 20 / 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 115.950 @ 05:27 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 115.420 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Recent gains in Bobl futures reinforce the short-term bullish theme and the pullback from last week’s high is considered corrective. Attention is on key short-term resistance that has been defined at 116.600, the Jul 19 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle and open 116.990, the Jun 12 high. On the downside, a move through 115.420, the Jul 17 low would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.367 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 105.010 @ 05:38 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term uptrend despite the recent pullback from 105.185, Jul 19 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support to watch is 104.805, the Jul 17 low. A break would expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 96.80 @ Close Jul 24
• SUP 1: 96.11 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 95.20 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s print above resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforces current positive conditions. A resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for gains towards 99.71, 50.0% of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 94.58, the Jul 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• PRICE: 116.65 @ Close Jul 24
• SUP 1: 115.45/09 20-day EMA / Low Jul 14 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures traded higher Monday but remained below last week’s high of 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact and attention is on the key near-term hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4447.00 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4435.00 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 4401.00 @ 06:27 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 4351.00/4220.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode but continue to trade closer to their recent highs and price is holding above the 50-day EMA at 4351.00. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Initial support is at the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bull Channel Top Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 4739.50 High Jan 12 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4687.89 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4631.00 High Mar 29 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4609.25/4622.12 High Jul 20 / Bull channel top
• PRICE: 4583.75 @ 06:50 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 4506.23 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4404.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4375.52 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract is trading below last week’s high of 4609.25 (Jul 19). Prices have recently tested the top of the bull channel drawn off the March 13 low - the channel top intersects at 4622.12 today. A clear breakout would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4631.00, the Mar 29 2022 high. A corrective pullback would initially target the 20-day EMA at 4506.23. The average marks the first key short-term level to watch.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $86.20 - High Jan 27
• RES 3: $85.47 - High Apr 12 / 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.77 - High Apr 19
• RES 1: $83.16 - High Jul 24
• PRICE: $82.89 @ 06:54 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $78.19 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and yesterday’s gains confirm a resumption of the trend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a rising cycle. The contract has cleared all major short-term resistance points and this signals scope for a climb towards $85.47, the Apr 12 high. Initial key short-term support has been defined at $78.19, the Jul 18 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Bullish Trend Sequence Remains Intact

• RES 4: $81.75 - High Jan 23
• RES 3: $81.44 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 2: $80.05 - High Apr 18
• RES 1: $79.28 - High Jul 24
• PRICE: $78.97 @ 06:59 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $73.78 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday's rally confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1999.4 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1963.6 @ 07:23 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $1949.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold conditions remain bullish for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces current conditions. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1, a Fibonacci retracement point. The yellow metal remains above support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1949.8. This average represents an important short-term level.

SILVER TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.567 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.575 @ 08:02 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $24.070 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.815 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The near-term bull trigger has been defined at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. A break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jun 23, and pave the way for a climb towards $26.135, the May 5 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $23.815, the 50-day EMA.