MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Bearish Threat Remains for Gilts

Price Signal Summary – S/T Bearish Threat Remains for Gilts

• Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract has traded to a fresh trend high today of 4299.00. Price has recently breached resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. The break of this level strengthens bullish conditions with sights on 4300.00. S&P E-minis remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, the Mar 6 high, reinforcing a bullish theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg.
• EURUSD maintains a bullish tone despite the recent pullback . Price has breached resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme. EURGBP maintains a softer tone following last week’s low print of 0.8729 on Apr 4. Attention is on support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper pullback. AUDUSD traded sharply higher on Apr 3 but has since pulled back and failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6741 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next. WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gain strengthens this current condition. The contract touched a high of $81.81 on Apr 4, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high.
• Bund futures traded higher last week as the recovery from 134.70 extended. The short-term outlook appears bullish and a continuation higher would signal scope for gains above the 138.00 handle. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, the Mar 20 high. A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present - recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.94 and price is once again trading below this EMA. A continuation lower would expose 102.74.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 2: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0924/0973 High Apr 7 / 4
• PRICE: 1.0884 @ 05:33 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 1.0825/0788 20-day EMA / Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.0749 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0631 Low Mar 20

EURUSD maintains a bullish tone despite the recent pullback . Price has breached resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0825, the 20-day EMA and 1.0749 the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this support zone would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 3: 1.2648 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2525 High Apr 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2402 @ 05:53 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.2345 Low Apr 4 0
• SUP 2: 1.2314/2275 20-day EMA / Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2209 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2191 Low Mar 24

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the recent move lower is considered corrective. The pair has breached 1.2448, Jan 23 high and the top of a broad range that started Dec 14 2022. This marks an important medium-term development signalling the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 last year. The focus is on 1.2648, the top of a MA envelope study. The bull trigger is 1.2525, Apr 4 high. Support is at 1.2314, 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8863/66 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 0.8792/0.8829 20-day EMA / High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8774 @ 06:05 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP maintains a softer tone following last week’s low print of 0.8729 on Apr 4. Attention is on support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper pullback, exposing 0.8691, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8829, the Mar 30 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Recent Bull Cycle Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.87 High APr 10
• PRICE: 133.31 @ 06:35 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 131.83/130.64 Low Apr 10 / 5
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and recent short-term gains are considered corrective, despite Monday’s strong rally. However, attention is on resistance at 133.87, yesterday’s high. A break of this level would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and highlight a clear breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open 134.75,a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would signal scope for a return to 130.64, the Apr 5 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 145.80 High Apr 5 / 76.4% of Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
• PRICE: 145.11 @ 06:47 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 143.48/142.55 20-day EMA / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 141.79 Low Mar 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.05 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 140.41 Low Mar 27

EURJPY remains below its recent highs. The cross has recently pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, the next firm support is seen at 142.55, the Apr 6 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6793 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6697/6741 20- and 50- day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6668 @ 08:03 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 0.6620 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD traded sharply higher on Apr 3 but has since pulled back and failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6741 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch lies at 0.6625, the Mar 24 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal a stronger bearish reversal.

USDCAD TECHS:Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3617 High MAr 29
• RES 1: 1.3566 50-day EMA High Ar 3
• PRICE: 1.3494 @ 08:08 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

USDCAD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, 50% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Apr 3, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3566, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 138.09 High Apr 6
• PRICE: 136.85 @ 04:55 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 136.01/134.70 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded higher last week as the recovery from 134.70 extended. The short-term outlook appears bullish and a continuation higher would signal scope for gains above the 138.00 handle. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, the Mar 20 high. On the downside, initial support to watch is 136.01, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 134.70, a break would resume the recent bearish theme and open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 1: 119.190 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 118.35800 @ 05:12 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 117.950/200 Intraday low / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures have remained above support at 117.200, the Mar 31 low. The short-term outlook appears bullish and a continuation higher would open 119.307, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 118.023, the 20-day EMA which has been pierced. The bear trigger is at 117.200, where a break would resume the recent bearish theme and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Support Remains

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 106.190/315 High Apr 6 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 105.765 @ 08:05 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 105.740/105.465 Intraday low / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures remain above the recent low of 105.465 (Mar 31). A short-term bearish threat is present and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. However, a break of 106.190, the Apr 6 high, would strengthen a bullish case and signal scope for an extension higher. On the downside, initial support at 105.785, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose the bear trigger at 105.465, the Mar 31 low.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Is Trading Below The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 103.94/104.97 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• PRICE: 103.34 @ 08:17 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 103.90/102.74 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

A short-term bearish threat in Gilt futures remains present - recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.94 and price is once again trading below this EMA. A continuation lower would expose 102.74, the Mar 20 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial key resistance is seen at 104.97, the Apr 6 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.30 @ Close Apr 6
• SUP 1: 115.12/114.04 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures traded higher last week but price remains below 117.17, the Mar 24 high and key resistance. The short-term outlook appears bullish. Note however, that price has recently traded through support at 115.12, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. A breach of 117.17 would resume the uptrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4283.00 @ 05:28 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 4180.90 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4134.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract has traded to a fresh trend high today of 4299.00. Price has recently breached resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. The break of this level strengthens bullish conditions with sights on 4300.00. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4180.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4171.75 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 4142.50 @ 07:09 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 4073.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4050.52 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, the Mar 6 high, reinforcing a bullish theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key M/T resistance. Firm support lies at 4050.52, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Bullish Condition Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.87 - High Jan 27
• RES 1: $86.44 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $84.82 @ 06:57 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $82.57 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $78.25 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 4: $76.32 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend

Brent futures are consolidating. The contract remains firm following last week’s gains and print above resistance at $86.17, the Mar 7 high. The move confirms an extension of the recent recovery that started from the Mar 20 low. A clear break of $86.17 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high. A large gap exists on the daily chart - key support lies at $79.95, the Mar 31 high and the gap low.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 2: $83.04 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: $81.81 - High Apr 4
• PRICE: $80.40 @ 07:01 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $77.69 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 4 rally
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $70.98 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and last week’s gain strengthens this current condition. The contract touched a high of $81.81 on Apr 4, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2032.1 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $2000.7 @ 07:15 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $1977.0/1963.6 - Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1916.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and last week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions - the yellow metal cleared former resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1934.3, the Mar 22 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Apr 19 2022
• RES 2: $25.293 - High Apr 20 2022
• RES 1: $25.137 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $24.957 @ 08:12 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $23.826 - Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: $23.628 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.857 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.157- Low Mar 21

Silver remains firm and last Tuesday’s strong gains reinforce current bullish conditions. The break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early September 2022. This signals scope for a climb towards $25.293 next, the Apr 20 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $23.628, the 20-day EMA. The trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.