MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Short-Term AUD Gains Considered Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Short-Term AUD Gains Considered Corrective

• S&P e-minis found resistance last week at 4430.50 (Oct 12 high). The pullback means that - for now - resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4425.45, remains intact. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s reversal from 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Note too that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4246.50, remains intact.
• GBPUSD is unchanged and trend conditions remain bearish. The pair is trading below last week’s high and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on support and the bear trigger at 1.2037, the Oct 4 low. USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook remains bullish and yesterday’s short-lived pullback found support at the 20-day EMA. Attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). AUDUSD has recovered from its recent lows and is trading higher today. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low.
• Gold traded sharply higher last Friday, clearing the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The yellow metal is firmer today. The rally strengthens the recent reversal and exposes the next key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high. WTI futures traded higher Friday and the contract has moved higher this week. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $81.50, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger at $95.03.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday and this undermines the recent bullish theme. The pullback highlights a stronger bearish reversal and the end of the recent corrective recovery between Oct 4 - 12. Note that the M/T trend direction is down. Gilt futures faced resistance last Thursday and 95.66, the Oct 12 high, has been defined as a key short-term hurdle for bulls. The contract has traded lower this week and remains soft. Support to watch lies at 92.48, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.0769 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0687 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0640 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 1.0576 @ 05:59 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 1.0496/0448 Low Oct 13 / 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0349 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The reversal lower from 1.0640, the Oct 12 high, suggests the end of the recent corrective cycle. Attention is on 1.0448, the Oct 3 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0406, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a break of 1.0640, the Oct 12 high, would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2444 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2389 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2245/2337 20-day EMA / High Oct 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2185 @ 06:19 Oct 18
• SUP 1: 1.2037 Low Oct 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD is unchanged and trend conditions remain bearish. The pair is trading below last week’s high and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on support and the bear trigger at 1.2037, the Oct 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, would signal scope for a stronger corrective phase.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 06:37 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 0.8627/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, extending the recovery from 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. The trend outlook is bullish and support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8627, remains intact for now. The cross needs to confirm a clear break of this average to suggest scope for a deeper pullback near-term. Attention is on the bull trigger at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.68 @ 06:51 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 148.91/147.43 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 147.24 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook remains bullish and yesterday’s short-lived pullback found support at the 20-day EMA. Attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). A clear break of 150.00 would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, clearance of 147.43, the Oct 3 low, would be seen as an important bearish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Next Resistance

• RES 4: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 158.65 High Sep 13
• PRICE: 158.51 @ 07:17 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 156.46/154.46 Low Oct 6 / Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 153.39 76.4% of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 bull run
• SUP 3: 151.42 Late July Low and Bear Trigger
• SUP 4: 150.00 Round number support

EURJPY is firmer but continues to trade inside its range. Resistance to watch is 158.65, the Sep 13 high. For bulls, a break of this level would highlight a range breakout and expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 159.76, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, key support lies at 154.46, the Oct 3 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open 153.39, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6387 @ 07:51 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

AUDUSD has recovered from its recent lows and is trading higher today. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break is required to highlight a reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3928 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3627 @ 07:54 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 1.3546 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The pair remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3546 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on resistance at 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Strengthens

• RES 4: 131.49 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 1: 129.00/130.20 20-day EMA / High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 128.08 @ 05:22 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 127.46 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 12 rally
• SUP 2: 127.31 Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday and this undermines the recent bullish theme. The pullback highlights a stronger bearish reversal and the end of the recent corrective recovery between Oct 4 - 12. Note that the M/T trend direction is down and moving average studies reflect this, A continuation lower would open 126.62, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger has been defined at 130.20, the Oct 12 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Reversal Extends

• RES 4: 116.740 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 2: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.934 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.470 @ 05:32 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 115.310 Low Oct 5
• SUP 2: 115.070 Low Oct 4
• SUP 3: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)

Bobl futures have pulled back from recent highs. Yesterday’s sell-off strengthens the reversal and undermines the recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 116.500, the Oct 10 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.053 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 104.875 @ 05:54 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 104.830 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday and continue to trade below resistance at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and a short-term bull trigger. The move below support at 105.035, the Oct 10 low, strengthens a bearish theme and exposes 104.830 the Sep 29 low. Further out, the bear trigger lies at 104.765, Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.053, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 96.31 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 2: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 93.92/94.28 20-day EMA / High Oct 16
• PRICE: 93.11 @ Close Oct 17
• SUP 1: 92.81 Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: 92.48 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 12 rally
• SUP 3: 91.90 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures faced resistance last Thursday and 95.66, the Oct 12 high, has been defined as a key short-term hurdle for bulls. The contract has traded lower this week and remains soft. Support to watch lies at 92.48, a Fibonacci retracement. A breach would strengthen bearish conditions and open key support and the bear trigger at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. For bulls, a clearance of 95.66 would confirm a resumption of the recent rally.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Sell-Off Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 111.17 High Oct 12 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 108.69 @ Close Oct 17
• SUP 1: 107.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded lower yesterday as the contract extends the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. This undermines the recent bullish phase and instead exposes key support and the bear trigger at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend. 111.17 marks the key resistance. A break of this level is required to reinstate a short-term bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4246.50/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4169.00 @ 06:48 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 4082.00 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s reversal from 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Note too that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4246.50, remains intact. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger correction. The bear trigger lies at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Key Short-Term Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4489.50 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 1: 4425.45/4430.50 50+-day EMA / High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4396.50 @ 07:17 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: 4299.50/4235.50 Low Oct 10 / Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

S&P e-minis found resistance last week at 4430.50 (Oct 12 high). The pullback means that - for now - resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4425.45, remains intact, and this reinforces a bearish theme. A clear breach of the average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and this would open 4489.50, trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high. On the downside, a deeper pullback would open 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $92.18 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $91.61 @ 08:06 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: $87.58/83.44 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures rallied sharply higher last Friday and the contract has traded higher this week. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $83.44, Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and a continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at $95.35, Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.03 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.59 - High Oct 4
• PRICE: $88.56 @ 07:10 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: $81.50 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 2: $79.57 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $75.92 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded higher Friday and the contract has moved higher this week. The latest recovery has highlighted a key support at $81.50, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger at $95.03, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $81.50, would instead highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Extends

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $1965.5 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
• RES 2: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1942.9 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1937.4 @ 07:25 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: $1900.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold traded sharply higher last Friday, clearing the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The yellow metal is firmer today. The rally strengthens the recent reversal and exposes the next key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies still highlight a broader bear trend condition, however, prices would need to trade below Friday's low of $1868.8 to signal a reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $23.166 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.066 @ 08:05 BST Oct 18
• SUP 1: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.585 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - May ‘23 upleg

Silver trend conditions are bearish, however, for now a corrective cycle is in play. The metal has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the 50-day average, at $22.783, strengthens bullish conditions. The move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, the Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.