MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Clear Last Week's Highs

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Clear Last Week's Highs

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and attention is on the key resistance at 4238.25, May 10 high. Key trend support is unchanged at 4029.25, May 13 low. The 20-day EMA represents initial support at 4163.05. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish with the focus on 4099.00,1.00 projection of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing.
• In the FX space, EURUSD found support Friday below the 20-day EMA. The outlook remains bullish and the focus is on 1.2285 next, Jan 8 high. Watch support at 1.2133, May 28 low. GBPUSD is consolidating but remains bullish. The focus is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high print. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. USDJPY resumed its uptrend last week breaking above 109.79, May 13 high and the bull trigger. 110.15, 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - Apr 23 sell-off has also been probed. A clear break would strengthen the bullish case and open 110.97, Mar 31 high. Dips are considered corrective.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish. The yellow metal cleared $1,900 last week and this opens the Jan 8 high of $1917.6. The trend remains overbought and we are monitoring this technical warning sign. $1872.8, May 25 low is first support. Oil contracts are trading near recent highs. Brent (Q1) key resistance is at $69.90, May 18 high and this marks the bull trigger. WTI (N1) confirmed a fresh trend high print of $67.52 Friday. This marks a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The focus is on $67.95, Oct 29 2018 high (cont).
• Within FI, Bunds (M1) stalled ahead of the 50-day EMA at 170.44. This signals the end of the recent correction. A clear breach of the average is required to highlight scope for further gains. Support is at 169.02. May 24 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Holding Above Last Week's Lows

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2266 High May 25
• PRICE: 1.2223 @ 06:01 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 1.2133/26 Low May 28 / Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2085 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5

EURUSD traded below the 20-day EMA Friday but managed to find support at the session low of 1.2133. The pair remains above this support. The outlook is bullish and the recent pullback is considered a correction. The focus is on 1.2285, Jan 8 high. Further out, the 2021 high of 1.2349, Jan 6 high beckons. Key short-term support is unchanged at 1.2052, May 13 low. A break of 1.2133 though would concern bulls.

GBPUSD TECHS: Probes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4451 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 1: 1.4248 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.4233 @ 06:10 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 1.4092 Low May 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 3: 1.3989 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD has edged higher overnight and in the process probed key resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high and the bull trigger. The outlook remains bullish and a clear breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. This would open 1.4315, April 18, 2018 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.4092, May 27 low where a break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8788 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8672 High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8589 @ 06:15 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 0.8575/61 Low May 28 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8444 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP outlook remains bearish reinforced, by the move lower on May 26 and 27. Attention is on support at 0.8561, May 12 low where a break would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8672, May 25 high. A break would alter the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Still In Play

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.20 High May 28
• PRICE: 109.48 @ 06:19 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 109.04 High May 27
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish and the move lower from last week's high is still considered corrective. Gains last week confirmed a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 23. The pair probed 110.15, a Fibonacci retracement. This turns the focus to this year's high print of 110.97 from Mar 31 where a break would confirm a resumption of this year's uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.56, Low May 25.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 3: 134.55 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 134.06/09 High May 27 / High May 31
• PRICE: 133.83 @ 06:37 BST Jun 2
• SUP 1: 132.7420-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 131.04 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY is holding onto recent gains and yesterday touched a high of 134.09. The extension reinforces bullish conditions signalling scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.55. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 132.52, May 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7902 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7741 @ 06:45 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 0.7677 Low May 28
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD remains above the May low of 0.7675 from May 4. A bearish theme dominates and attention remains on the 0.7675 level, seen as a firm short-term support. A break would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 0.7813, May 18 high would be a bullish development and open 0.7891 instead, high May 10.

USDCAD TECHS: Still In A Range

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2288 High May 13
• RES 1: 1.2139/2203 20-day EMA / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2054 @ 06:49 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 1.2013 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1835 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD is range bound but the outlook remains bearish. The recent key technical development has been the breach of major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot point marking either the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. Scope is seen for a test and break of the psychological 1.2000 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high. A break would signal the start of a correction.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.42 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 170.40 High May 26
• PRICE: 169.92 @ 05:25 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 169.02 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 168.29 Low May 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Conditions in Bund futures are unchanged. Recent gains stalled just ahead of a key resistance highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 170.42. The recent recovery is still considered a correction. Further weakness would signal scope for a move towards 169.02, May 24 low and open the key support and bear trigger at 168.29, May 19 low. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish case.

BOBL TECHS: M(1) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.008 61.8% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 downleg
• RES 1: 134.850 High May 26 and 27
• PRICE: 134.720 @ 05:40 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 134.410 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 134.180/140 Low May 19 / Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures reversed course on May 27 and gains stalled just above the key resistance highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 134.816. Recent gains are still considered a correction. Further weakness would signal scope for a move towards 134.410, May 24 low with the key support zone at 134.180/140, the May 19 and Feb 26 lows respectively. A strong break of last week's 134.850 high would resume gains.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 2: 112.083 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.060 High May 26 and 27
• PRICE: 112.050 @ 05:28 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 112.020 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 112.000 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support

Recent Schatz futures gains are still considered corrective. The outlook is bearish following the sell-off from May 5 that marked a resumption of the bear cycle since Mar 25. Weakness earlier in May resulted in a breach of 112.060, a previous support during March and April. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 111.940, Feb 26 low. For bulls, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Resistance around the 50-day EMA is at 112.083.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 128.10 2.500 projection of the May 13 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 128.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 127.89 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 127.74/82 High May 7, 26 / High Apr 20 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 127.25 @ Close May 28
• SUP 1: 126.82 Low May 28
• SUP 2: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 126.12 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 125.94 Low May 13 and key support

The Gilt futures broader outlook remains bearish and the contract faced strong selling pressure on May 27. Recent gains are considered a correction and Thursday's move lower signals the potential end of the recent corrective bounce. If correct, scope exists for short-term weakness that would expose last month's low of 125.94 and the bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is marked by the highs of early May and late April. A break would be bullish.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Testing The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 148.65 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 148.10 61.8% retracement of the Mar 29 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 147.39/47 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 147.32 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 146.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 145.64 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 144.48 Low May 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following the recent extension lower to 144.48 on Mar 19. However, since May 19, prices have recovered and a corrective cycle is in play, allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The break of the 20-day EMA exposes the 50-day EMA at 147.39 that is currently being tested. The average represents a firm resistance and a clear break would signal scope for further gains. On the downside, firm support is 145.64.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Bulls Remain In Control

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4074.00 High May 28
• PRICE: 4046.00 @ 05:54 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 3999.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3923.23/3882.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish despite yesterday's pullback. A positive outlook follows last week's breach of resistance at 4036.00, May 10 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4099.00, a Fibonacci projection. The climb also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the current trend condition. On the downside, firm support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M1): All Eyes On Resistance

• RES 4: 4292.25 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4217.50 High May 28
• PRICE: 4203.75 @ 06:05 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: 4142.50 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4021.00 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish. The contract breached former resistance at 4185.00 last week, May 21 high. Recent gains have also reinforced the bullish significance of the recovery in May from support defined by the 50-day EMA. The average was tested twice in May. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. Initial firm support is unchanged at 4055.50, May 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $71.38 - High Mar 8 (cont)
• RES 1: $70.74 - 0.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• PRICE: $70.29 @ 06:52 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $67.80 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $63.51 - Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: $61.64 - Low Apr 12

Brent crude traded higher last week extending the recovery from $64.50, May 21 low and continues to push higher trading through $70.00 today. The underlying uptrend remains intact and attention is on $71.38 next, the Mar 8 high (cont). Price recently breached the 50-day EMA however levels around the average continue to provide strong trend support. Weakness through $64.50 low is required to signal a S/T top. Initial support is at $67.80.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Fresh Trend High Print Once Again

• RES 4: $70.22 - 2.618 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $68.39 - 2.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• PRICE: $67.68 @ 07:00 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $64.91 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 3: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $58.70 - Low Apr 12

WTI crude traded higher Friday and confirmed a fresh trend high print of $67.52. This marks a resumption of the underlying uptrend and signals scope for an extension of the uptrend which has again occurred today. The focus is on $67.95, Oct 29 2018 high (cont) and $68.39, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
• RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 1: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• PRICE: $1913.4 @ 07:17 BST MaJun 1
• SUP 1: $1872.8/52.3 - Low May 25 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $1819.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 4: $1782.1 - Low May 6

Gold bulls remain in charge. Last week's gains confirmed once again a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. The yellow metal has also traded higher today. Price recently cleared $1892.7, 76.4% of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. This signals scope for $1917.6, high Jan 8 and further out, attention is on $1959.4, Jan 6 high and key resistance. Initial firm support is $1852.3.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
• PRICE: $28.315 @ 07:28 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $27.202 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $26.825 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver remains bullish and is firmer today. Price action on May 18 probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. This session's high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend. Initial support is at $27.202.