MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Firmer Above Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Firmer Above Resistance

• S&P E-Minis rallied sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared a key resistance at 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact following last week’s strong gains. The contract has cleared resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger.
• EURUSD traded higher again Friday and is holding on to its latest gains. Trend conditions remain bullish - a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows has been established on the daily scale. EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. AUDUSD remains firm and is holding on to its recent gains and price remains above the 50-day EMA. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the rally that started mid-October.
• Gold rallied sharply higher last week and remains bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. The pullback in WTI futures early last week undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term, despite recent gains.
• Bund futures traded sharply higher Thursday but gave back most of its gains Friday. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA at 139.99. A clear break of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and Thursday’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 1.0450 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0368 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 1.0303 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 1.0163 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 0.9936 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.9827 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low

EURUSD traded higher again Friday and is holding on to its latest gains. Trend conditions remain bullish - a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows has been established on the daily scale and moving average studies are crossing to highlight a potential bull mode set-up. The focus is on 1.0368 resistance, the Aug 10 high ahead of 1.0450, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 1.0094, the Oct 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 1.2069 1.00 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.1901 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 1.1872 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1744 @ 15:40 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.1460 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone. The pair has cleared resistance at 1.1645, the Oct 27 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 26 and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.1901, the Aug 26 high ahead of the 1.2000 psychological handle. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 1.1334, the Nov 9 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09
• PRICE: 0.8768 @ 06:29 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 0.8689 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, reinforcing a positive theme. For bears, a stronger reversal lower and a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Settles South of Y140

• RES 4: 145.72 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 144.52 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 139.94 Intraday high
• PRICE: 139.31 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 138.46 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 138.05 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

USDJPY remains bearish following last week’s sell-off and the pair is settling below Y140. A continuation of the current bear cycle would set the scene for a move towards 138.05 and 137.37, the Aug 30 and 29 lows respectively. The pair is testing 138.64, 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. A clear break of this Fibonacci retracement would reinforce bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 144.52, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 145.35 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 143.72 @ 06:52 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 142.57 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY reversed course last Thursday and this resulted in a breach of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low and the 50-day EMA, currently at 143.79. A clear break of this area of support would signal potential for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. On the upside, a reversal higher and a break of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 3: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.6768 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6723 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6700 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 0.6522/0.6459 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger

AUDUSD remains firm and is holding on to its recent gains and price remains above the 50-day EMA. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the rally that started mid-October. The pair has cleared 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a previous breakout level. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6768, a Fibonacci retracement level. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, last Thursday’s low.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3729 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3361/1.3481 High Nov 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3253 @ 08:13 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 1.3236 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme. Last Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a new multi-month low, reinforcing a bearish theme and marking an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This tilts the balance further in favour of bears. A continuation lower would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, the Nov 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.92 High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 140.72 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 138.31 @ 05:10 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 138.15 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded sharply higher Thursday but gave back most of its gains Friday. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA at 139.99. A clear break of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 140.92, the Oct 28 high and 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA is seen as initial support - it intersects at 138.15. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 112.240 @ 05:19 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher Thursday but faced resistance Friday. The move higher marks an extension of the recent bounce from the Nov 8 low and has pierced the 50-day EMA at 120.318. A clear break of the EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, Nov 8 low is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Trend Condition Still Bearish

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.223 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.630 @ 05:23 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures continue to trade above last Tuesday’s low. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a continuation of last week’s gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.223. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is a bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1107.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 1: 105.59 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 104.15 @ Close Nov 11
• SUP 1: 102.26/99.92 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and Thursday’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that the move higher also confirmed the recent bull flag formation on the daily chart. Resistance at 105.34, the Nov 4 high has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 106.25, the Sep 12 high. Key support is at 99.92, the Nov 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.00 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 115.89 @ Close Nov 11
• SUP 1: 114.24/112.45 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded higher last Thursday but faced resistance on Friday. Last week’s climb resulted in a test of resistance at 117.93, the Oct 27 high. A clear break would suggest scope for a extension higher towards 119.06, the Sep 8 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 114.24, the 20-day EMA ahead of 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Northbound

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3895.00 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 3880.00 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 7 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3641.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3566.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact following last week’s strong gains. The contract has cleared resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this highlights the current market sentiment. The focus is on a climb towards 3944.00, the Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. The initial firm support lies at Thursday's 3697.00 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Heading North

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• PRICE:3985.25 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 3837.45 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis rallied sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared a key resistance at 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. This signals scope for gains towards 4023.44 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $99.56 - High Nov 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $95.59 @ 06:52 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: $91.73 - Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

A strong sell-off early last week in Brent futures, threatens the recent bullish theme, suggesting scope for an extension lower. A bearish engulfing pattern (Nov 8) and last Wednesday’s bearish follow through resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 92.67. A clear break of this EMA would open the $90.00 handle and $87.52, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $99.56, the Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Still Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.10/93.74 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $88.94 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: $84.70 - Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

The pullback in WTI futures early last week undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term, despite recent gains. A bearish shooting star candle (Nov 7) was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day. These patterns highlight a short-term reversal. A continuation lower would open $81.30, Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $93.74, Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Rally Intact

• RES 4: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 1: $1772.8 - High Nov 11
• PRICE: $1761.1 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: $1729.5/1702.3 - High Oct 4 / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: $1684.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Gold rallied sharply higher last week and remains bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and paves the way for an extension towards the $1800.0 handle and resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low.

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 3: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 2: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $22.064 - High Nov 11
• PRICE: $21.511 @ 07:22 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: $20.197 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 3: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver maintains a firmer tone. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and traded higher last week. Price has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.00 (tested) and $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $20.197, the 20-day EMA.