MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Hold Onto Gains

Price Signal Summary - Stocks Hold Onto Gains

• In the equity space, global stocks are recovering from the protracted downside suffered the first half of last week. A key support has been defined at 4029.25, May 13 low. A break of this level would risk a deeper pullback. While it holds, the trend remains up.
• In FX, EURUSD recovered off last week's lows and remains above 1.1986, May 5 low. Key short-term support is 1.2052, May 13 low. The outlook is bullish while price remains above this support. GBPUSD is bullish following last week's gains. Attention is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high. USDJPY support has been defined at 108.34, May 7 low. A bullish theme remains intact while it holds and attention is on 109.79, May 13 high. A break of support would highlight a trendline break drawn off the Jan 6 low and risk a deeper pullback.
• On the commodity front, Gold is climbing and remains bullish. The focus is on $1875.7, Jan 29 high. Oil is well off recent highs but the uptrend remains intact. The Brent (N1) focus is on the psychological $70.00 level and $71.75, Jan 8 2020 high (cont). Watch key support at $63.09, May 3 low. WTI bulls are eyeing the key resistance at $67.29, Mar 8 high. Key near-term support is at $63.09, May 3 low
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) remain vulnerable and the risk is for a revisit of the 2020 lows at 167.52. A break of 168.59, May 13 low would trigger a resumption of the downtrend. Near-term risk in Gilts is still skewed to the downside. The key support and bear trigger is 126.79, Mar 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Defined At 1.2052

• RES 4: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 3: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2209 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2182/84 High May 11 / High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.2130 @ 05:59 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2020 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.1943 Low Apr 19

EURUSD found support last week at 1.2052, May 13 low. This level represents a key short-term support where a break is required to highlight a short-term top and the risk of a deeper pullback. Attention is on resistance at 1.2182, May 11 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Mar 31 and would signal scope for gains above 1.2200. A break of 1.2052 would instead expose 1.1986, May 5 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 218
• RES 3: 1.4284 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4166 High May 11
• PRICE: 1.4085 @ 06:07 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 2: 1.3890 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3801 Low May 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3772 Bull channel base drawn off the May 2020 low

GBPUSD outlook remains bullish. The rate has recently cleared a number of resistance levels, reinforcing a positive theme and sights are set on the key resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high. A break of 1.4237 would strengthen a bullish case and importantly confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started in March 2020. On the downside, initial support is at Monday's intraday low of 1.3972, May 10 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8791/8835 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8654 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8611 @ 06:13 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 0.8561 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8459 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP hit new weekly lows last week, printing 0.8561 on May 12 before recovering slightly into the week's close. The move lower has seen the cross move out of its recent range and confirm a bearish breakout. This suggests scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8721, Apr 26 high. Initial resistance is at 0.8654, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.79 High May 13
• PRICE: 109.39 @ 06:21 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 108.85/34 Trendline support / Low May 7
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY maintains a bullish outlook. The pair rallied last week from what is now a support at 108.34, May 7 low. This resulted in a test and probe of the early April highs of 109.96, strengthening a bullish case and suggesting scope for further short-term gains. Note too that the recovery last week means trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low remains intact. A break of 108.34 would threaten the utrend and also signal a break of the trendline.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Within Its Channel

• RES 4: 133.87 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 3: 133.28 1.50 proj of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing
• RES 2: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 132.95 Intraday high
• PRICE: 132.63 @ 06:30 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 4: 130.36 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY has today ebbed to a new trend high of 132.95. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for further gains within the bull channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 133.87. Moving average studies are still pointing north, also reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 131.69, May 12 low. A firmer trend support is found at 130.99, May 5 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7934 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7846 High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7750 @ 07:59 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 0.7688 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD traded to a low of 0.7688 last week on May 13, denting the recent bullish outlook further. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this support zone would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7846, May 12 high ahead of the key resistance at 0.7891, May 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.2491 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2203/2288 High May 13 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2125 @ 07:04 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 1.2046 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1931 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1920 Low May 2015

USDCAD remains bearish. Last week's key technical development was the test of the major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot chart point that either represents the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. A clear break lower would reinforce the current downtrend and open 1.2000 and below. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 170.13 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 169.19 @ 04:56 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 168.59 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 168.19 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 20, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures maintain a weaker tone and recent gains are considered corrective. Last week's sell-off resulted in a breach of support at 169.47, May 3 low as well as 169.24, Feb 24 low, opening further losses below 169.00. A volatility band support lies at 168.19 going with scope too for 168.09, a Fibonacci projection. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 170.98, Apr 7 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Eying The Feb 26 Low

• RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.870 High May 10
• RES 1: 134.754 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.460 @ 05:02 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 134.300 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower last week to hit new cycle lows of 134.300 on May 13. This confirms a resumption of the bearish cycle that started Mar 25. The break lower and resumption of weakness also signals scope for a move towards end-Feb lows next, with support layered between 134.00-134.14. Clearance of this zonal would signal scope for further losses toward the 2020 lows. Key resistance is at 135.040, May 6 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 1: 112.072 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.030 @ 05:04 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 112.005 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 112.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone following last week's sell-off and resumption of the bearish cycle that started Mar 25. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April. The clear break strengthens a bearish case and paves the way for weakness below 112.00 and towards 111.940, Feb 26 low. On the upside, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Bearish!

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.80 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.08 High MAy 11
• PRICE: 127.43 @ Close May 14
• SUP 1: 126.86 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.56 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

The Gilt futures outlook remains bearish. The pullback from 128.80, May 7 high and last week's follow through reinforce bearish conditions. The move lower resulted in a break of support between 127.40 and 127.32, the Apr 29 and Apr 1 lows respectively. This exposes the major support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. A break of 126.79 would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance is 128.80.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Heading South

• RES 4: 147.96 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 147.33 High May 7
• RES 1: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 145.38 @ Close May 14
• SUP 1: 145.15 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 144.96 Low Sep 9, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 143.71 2.0% 10-dma envelope

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following last week's extension lower that have registered fresh 2021 lows. The recent break of support at 146.84, Feb 26 low confirmed a resumption of the broader pullback that started Feb 12. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode reinforcing the current bear cycle. Attention is on the 145.00 handle and 144.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 146.84.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4036.00 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4019.00 @ 05:50 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 3949.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3727.00 Low Mar 25

EUROSTOXX 50 futures staged a solid recovery last week and have defined a key support at 3844.00, May 13 low. A test of the 50-day EMA last week failed to result in a clear break of the average. The EMA represents a key trend support reference and intersects at 3870.01. Attention is on 4036.00, May 10 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend. A break of 3844.00 is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Defines A Key Support

• RES 4: 4283.53 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4185.50 High May 12
• PRICE: 4164.00 @ 06:48 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 4105.25 Low May 14
• SUP 2: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4021.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 3932.21 100-dma

S&P E-minis found support last week at 4029.25. This represents a key short-term support where a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. The strong recovery also highlights the importance of the 50-day EMA as a trend support - price traded below the average last week but failed to confirm a clear break of it. While 4029.25 remains intact, attention is on this year's high and the bull trigger, at 4238.25.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $69.95 - High May 5
• PRICE: $68.47 @ 07:08 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $66.48 - Low May 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $66.10 - Low May 3
• SUP 3: $65.15 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $63.93 - Low Apr 26

Brent crude price structure remains bullish. Price on May 5, probed key resistance at $69.73, Mar 8 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend and extend the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $71.75, the Jan 8, 2020 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $66.48, May 13 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Watching Support

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $66.76 - High May 5
• PRICE: $65.32 @ 07:27 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $63.09 - Low May 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $62.14 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $58.77 - Low Apr 12

WTI maintains a bullish tone. The contract recently probed resistance at $66.15, Mar 15 high where a clear break would pave the way for a test of the key hurdle for bulls at $67.29, Mar 8 high. Clearance of this latter resistance would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. On the downside, firm near-term support has been defined at $63.09, May 13 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Extension

• RES 4: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 3: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• RES 2: $1892.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 1: $1875.7 - High Jan 29
• PRICE: $1855.3 @ 07:14 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 2: $1782.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1764.3 - Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support

Gold has traded higher overnight and importantly, confirmed once again a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. Price action has also cleared $1851.5, a Fibonacci retracement signalling scope for climb towards 1875.7 next, the Jan 29 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1808.9, May 13 low. A break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In Charge

• RES 4: $28.609 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $28.205 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $27.883 - High May 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $27.710 @ 09:27 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $26.249 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $25.718 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 4: $25.636 - Low Apr 19

Silver remains bullish. The metal continues to recover from $26.721, May 13 low. This level represents an important short-term support where a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. While it holds, attention is on the key near-term resistance at $27.883, May 10 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 31. This would open $28.328, Feb 23 high.