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JGB TECHS

(U1) Tilted Higher

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U1) Uptrend Weakening

US TSYS SUMMARY

Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme

AUDUSD TECHS

Fresh 2021 Lows

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Price Signal Summary - E-Mini S&P Resumes Broad Uptrend

  • In the equity space, the E-mini S&P (U1) broader uptrend has resumed, with new alltime highs printed Thursday.
  • The break confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and signals potential for a fresh round of gains with the next objective at 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the break higher also opens 4300.00 next. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low. The broader medium-term trend support is at 4020.00, May 13 low.
  • In the FX space, EURUSD failed to hold onto yesterday's gains and still appears vulnerable. The focus is on 1.2108, the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low. GBPUSD traded well into the Thursday close, opening a decent gap with the May 13 low at 1.4006 which marks key support. Prices are, so far, still below the 1.4248, Jun 1 high. Recent USDJPY weakness resulted in a probe of support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. A clear break lower would threaten the recent uptrend and expose 108.56, May 25 low. 110.33, the Jun 4 high is the bull trigger.
  • On the commodity front, Gold key short-term directional triggers are unchanged at; $1916.6, the Jun 1 and bull trigger and $1856.2, the Jun 4 low. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price has traded higher this week. Recent Brent (Q1) gains have opened $73.00 next, a round number resistance. WTI (N1) similarly has cleared resistance to hit new cycle highs, breaching the $70.00 psychological level in the process. The focus is on $70.92, 2.764 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
  • Within FI, Bunds (U1) have this week topped the 50-day EMA at 172.00 and trend structures appear bullish. The focus is on 173.32 next, 76.4% of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off. Gilts (U1) traded higher yesterday and in the process cleared the key resistance zone at 127.74/82, marking the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. This opens 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Near-Term Bearish Risk Still Present

  • RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
  • RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
  • RES 2: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
  • RES 1: 1.2218 High Jun 9
  • PRICE: 1.2188 @ 06:02 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 1.2111/2104 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 and key S/T support
  • SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13
  • SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5
  • SUP 4: 1.1919 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally

EURUSD is unchanged and a near-term bearish risk remains present. This follows a sharp pullback Jun 3 that saw price trade through 1.2133, May 28 low. The break lower highlights potential for a deeper correction and attention remains on the 50-day EMA at 1.2111. The EMA represents a key area of support ahead of 1.2104, the Jun 4 low. On the upside, primary resistance is unchanged at 1.2266, May 25 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Finds Support

  • RES 4: 1.4445 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
  • RES 1: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.4182 @ 06:12 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
  • SUP 2: 1.4034/06 50-day EMA / Low May 13 and key support
  • SUP 3: 1.3972 Low May 10
  • SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, finding support at 1.4074. The pair is still trading in a range though below 1.4248, Jun 1 high. Trend conditions are bullish. The probe on Jun 1 of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforces a bullish theme however a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 1.4315, April 18 2018 high. Key support is at the 50-day EMA at 1.4034 and 1.4006, May 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

  • RES 4: 0.8777 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
  • RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
  • RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
  • RES 1: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
  • PRICE: 0.8594 @ 06:19 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 0.8565/61 Low Jun 4 / Low May 12
  • SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 0.8433 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP traded lower yesterday and closed near session lows. The cross remains in a range though. The outlook is bearish following the move lower between May 25 - 28. Initial resistance is at 0.8672, May 25 high and while this holds, attention is on 0.8561, May 12 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. A move above 0.8672 alters the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Still Appears Vulnerable

  • RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
  • RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
  • RES 1: 110.33 High Jun 4
  • PRICE: 109.42 @ 17:06 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 109.19/108.99 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
  • SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY failed to hold onto yesterday's gains. A bearish risk remains present following the recent pullback from 110.33, Jun 4 high. This resulted in a print below former key short-term support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. The move dents the bullish theme and a deeper sell-off would expose 108.56, May 25 low. A recovery would instead refocus attention on 110.33 where a break is required to reinstate the uptrend and open this year's 110.97 high from Mar 31.

EURJPY TECHS: Consolidation Mode

  • RES 4: 135.05 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
  • RES 3: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
  • RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
  • RES 1: 133.81/34.13 High Jun 4 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 133.36 @ 06:42 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 132.89 Low Jun 7
  • SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
  • SUP 3: 131.99 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 131.53 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY is attempting to retrace yesterday's pullback. The cross remains in a consolidation mode with initial support at 132.89, Jun 7 low. Trend conditions however remain bullish and the recent pullback is likely a correction. Price touched a high of 134.13 on Jun 1 and the extension reinforces bullish conditions signalling scope for gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The channel top is at 135.05. Firm support lies at 132.52.

AUDUSD TECHS: Stuck In A Range

  • RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25
  • RES 3: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
  • RES 2: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
  • RES 1: 0.7773 High Jun 2
  • PRICE: 0.7754 @ 06:45 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 0.7646 Low Jun 3
  • SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
  • SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
  • SUP 4: 0.7544 200-dma

AUDUSD remains in a tight range. The pair broke through 0.7675 on Jun 3 but immediately reversed the sharp move lower. Last week's break lower however does signal the end of the recent broader consolidation since mid-April. A resumption of weakness would open 0.7586, Apr 13 low and 0.7532, Apr 1 low and key support. Initial resistance is at 0.7773, Jun 2 high and 0.7813, May 18 high. A break of the latter would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Range-Bound

  • RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
  • RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
  • RES 2: 1.2240 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.2142/2203 High May 27 / High May 6
  • PRICE: 1.2087 @ 06:51 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 1.2007 Low May 18
  • SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
  • SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
  • SUP 4: 1.1842 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains in a range. The underlying trend is bearish although to resume the downleg, the pair needs to clear 1.2007, May 18 low. This would expose the psychological 1.2000 handle where a breach would also reinforce bearish conditions. For bulls, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2203, May 6 high. A break would instead signal a short-term base and the potential for a stronger corrective bounce.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bullish Cycle

  • RES 4: 174.07 High Mar 29
  • RES 3: 173.79 High Apr 8
  • RES 2: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
  • RES 1: 173.00 Round number resistance
  • PRICE: 172.87 @ 05:18 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 171.70 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
  • SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract has this week breached the 50-day EMA and 172.05, Jun 4 high. The break higher signals scope for stronger short-term gains. Potential is seen for a move towards 173.00 next and 173.32, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 171.70. Key near-term support has been defined at 170.99, Mar 31 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Needle Points North

  • RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • RES 1: 134.470 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 134.450 @ 05:18 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 134.07320-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
  • SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded higher Jun 4 confirming a break of resistance at 134.100. The break higher, together with this week's climb, confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows as the rally from the May 20 low extends, reinforcing bullish conditions. Scope is for a move towards 134.510 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break is needed to alter the picture.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1)Short-Term Uptrend Intact

  • RES 4: 112.235 2.00 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 112.213 1.764 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • RES 2: 112.216 1.618 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • RES 1: 112.210 High Intraday high
  • PRICE: 112.205 @ 05:37 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 112.160 Low Jun 10
  • SUP 2: 112.150 Low Jun 4, 7, 8
  • SUP 3: 112.145 Low Jun 3
  • SUP 4: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support

Schatz futures remain firm. This week the contract cleared resistance at 112.180, May 27 high. The break higher highlights a stronger short-term bullish tone signalling scope for a climb towards 112.216 and 112.223 next, Fibonacci projections. Key trend support has been defined at 112.135, late May lows where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is at 112.160, Jun 10 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Bullish Focus

  • RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
  • RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
  • RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
  • RES 1: 128.18 High Jun 9
  • PRICE: 127.69 @ Close Jun 10
  • SUP 1: 127.13 Low Jun 8
  • SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
  • SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. Furthermore, the move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing a bullish theme. This signals scope for a climb towards 128.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 126.70, Jun 3 low. Dips are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Bull Cycle Intact

  • RES 4: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
  • RES 3: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
  • RES 2: 152.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 151.92 0.764 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
  • PRICE: 151.62 @ Close Jun 10
  • SUP 1: 150.75 Low Jun 10
  • SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8
  • SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28 and key near-term support
  • SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday and the contract maintains the current bullish cycle following the reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. This cycle has allowed an earlier oversold condition to unwind. With bulls clearly in control, attention is on 151.92 next, a Fibonacci projection and the 152.00 handle. On the downside, firm support has been defined at 150.11, Jun 8 low. Initial support is at yesterday's low of 150.75.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Consolidating But Remains Bullish

  • RES 4: 4219.23 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
  • RES 3: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
  • RES 2: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
  • RES 1: 4116.00 High Jun 8
  • PRICE: 4105.00 @ 05:54 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 4050.53/4016.00 20-day EMA / Low May 27
  • SUP 2: 3969.26/59.10 50-day EMA / Channel base from Feb 26 low
  • SUP 3: 3882.00 Low May 19
  • SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged. Conditions remain bullish with the contract achieving a fresh trend high of 4116.00 Jun 8 The move higher this week confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the broad positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4140.00 next, Jan 18, 2008 high. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 4050.53.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Broader Uptrend Resumes

  • RES 4: 4329.67 3.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
  • RES 2: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
  • RES 1: 4239.50 High Jun 10
  • PRICE: 4231.50 @ 06:57 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: 4155.50 Low Jun 3
  • SUP 2: 4123.10/4046.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
  • SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 4005.50 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis traded higher yesterday and price moved above the contracts former high of 4228.25 on May 10. The break confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and signals potential for a fresh round of gains with the next objective at 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the break higher also opens 4300.00 next. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low. The broader medium-term trend support is at 4020.00, May 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Uptrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: $74.20 - High Apr 26, 2019 (cont)
  • RES 3: $73.40 - High May 20 2019 (cont)
  • RES 2: $73.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 1: $72.93 - High Jun 10
  • PRICE: $72.38 @ 06:54 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: $70.00 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $69.90 High May 18 and the recent break out level
  • SUP 3: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
  • SUP 4: $63.51 - Low Apr 22

Brent crude futures traded higher once again yesterday extending the underlying uptrend. The $72.00 handle has this week been cleared and attention turns to $73.00 and $73.40. The latter is the May 20, 2019 high (cont). Weakness through $64.50, the May 21 low is required to highlight a key short-term top. Initial support lies at $70.00, the 20-day EMA ahead of $69.90, May 18 high.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Heading North

  • RES 4: $72.70 - High Oct 15, 2018 (cont)
  • RES 3: $72.06 - 3.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
  • RES 2: $70.92 - 2.764 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
  • RES 1: $70.65 - High Jun 10
  • PRICE: $7018 @ 07:01 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
  • SUP 3: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
  • SUP 4: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support

WTI crude futures remain bullish and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. The psychological $70.00 handle has been cleared. The break reinforces current trend conditions and opens $70.92 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Initial firm support is seen at $67.02.

GOLD TECHS: Directional Triggers Defined

  • RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
  • RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
  • RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
  • RES 1: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $1900.32 @ 07:20 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: $1856.2 - Low Jun 4
  • SUP 2: $1852.3 - Low May 19
  • SUP 3: $1840.1- 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: $1808.9 - Low May 13

Gold found support at yesterday's low. Recent price has defined two key short-term directional triggers. These are; $1916.6, the Jun 1 high and bull trigger and $1856.2, Jun 4 low. A break of the latter would reinforce recent bearish concerns following the strong selling pressure on Jun 3. A break would open the 50-day EMA at $1840.1, also seen as a key support area. For bulls, clearance of $1916.6 would resume the uptrend instead.

SILVER TECHS: Extends Recent Gains

  • RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
  • RES 3: $29.053 - High Feb 2
  • RES 2: $28.753 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: $28.556 - High Jun 1
  • PRICE: $28.191 @ 07:29 BST Jun 11
  • SUP 1: $27.098 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $27.040 - Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13
  • SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver is firmer and extending the recovery from yesterday's low. A stronger recovery would expose the key resistance at $28.556/753, Jun 1 and May 18 highs respectively. This would also negate recent bearish concerns following the sharp sell-off on Jun 3. A break of $28.753 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $27.040, Jun 3 low. A break would instead be bearish.