MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trend Condition in EUR/JPY Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Trend Condition in EUR/JPY Remains Bullish

• The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Friday’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded to a fresh cycle low Friday, before recovering. Despite the bounce, a bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s extension plus Monday’s move lower, reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the break lower in price maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is trading at its recent highs. Price is also trading above key support at 163.79 - a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. This line has recently been pierced. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Key support at 0.6443, Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared, marking an important technical breach that confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year.
• Gold traded lower yesterday and is softer again today. The precious metal has breached the 20-day EMA and this signals the start of a corrective cycle. A continuation would signal scope for an extension towards $2217.4, the 50-day EMA. Last week’s move lower in WTI futures highlights the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this has exposed key short-term support at the 50-day EMA, at $80.75.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 130.25, a Fibonacci projection. Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0732/0789 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
• PRICE: 1.0655 @ 05:50 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0543 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

EURUSD is in consolidation mode. A bear cycle remains in play and price is trading closer to recent lows. The break on Apr 12 of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This signals scope for a move towards 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0543, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0732, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Trend Extension

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2524/1.2597 20-and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.2468 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 1.2351 @ 06:00 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.2300 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s extension plus Monday’s move lower, reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the break lower in price maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing a bearish theme. Sights are on 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2524, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Range Breakout

• RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8644 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 0.8629 @ 06:12 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 0.8602/8565 Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

A strong rally Friday in EURGBP resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high and a key resistance. The continuation higher Monday confirms a range breakout and a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. 0.8633, 50.0% of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle, has been cleared. This opens 0.8665, the 61.8% retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 0.8565, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 156.47 2.00 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.85 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 154.79 @ 06:43 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 153.59 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 152.95/151.18 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 150.27 Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: 149.03 Low Mar 19

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday of 154.85. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a clear rising trend. The trend is overbought, however, this is clearly not a concern for bulls at this stage. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next. On the downside, support lies at 152.95, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 167.70 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 164.87 @ 06:53 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 163.79/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is trading at its recent highs. Price is also trading above key support at 163.79 - a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. This line has recently been pierced. A clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal and this would also highlight a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 163.09. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 165.35, the Mar 20 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
• RES 3: 0.6529 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6494 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6465 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6451 @ 07:30 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 0.6363 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Key support at 0.6443, Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared, marking an important technical breach that confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Firm resistance is at 0.6529, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3804/46 High Apr 19 / 16
• PRICE: 1.3704 @ 08:04 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.3671 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3595 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded lower Monday. A bullish trend condition remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to be a correction, as an overbought condition unwinds. The pair has recently cleared resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This opens 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Support lies at 1.3671, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 131.89 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.23 @ 05:22 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 130.52 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 130.25 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.87 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 130.25, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. First resistance is at 131.89, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 3: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.517 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.150 @ 05:39 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 116.730 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.306 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low Monday. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. The clear breach confirms a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year and sights are on 116.518, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a reversal. First resistance is 117.517, 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
• RES 1: 105.528/680 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.390 @ 05:49 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 105.265 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 105.178 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.047 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.178, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.428, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
• RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 97.78/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 97.26 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 96.45/01 Low Apr 19 / 17
• SUP 2: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, MA studies have crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 117.58 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. Attention is on 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. A clear break of the latter level would signal a stronger reversal. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.10, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play Despite The Latest Bounce

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4990.00 High Apr 15
• RES 1: 4923.80 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4917.00 @ 06:05 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 4762.00 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: 4700.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded to a fresh cycle low Friday, before recovering. Despite the bounce, a bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract has traded through 4860.60, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and opens 4711.00, Feb 19 low. Initial firm resistance is 4923.80, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5153.25 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5095.25/5137.54 High Apr 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 5045.25 @ 07:15 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 4963.50 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17

The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Friday’s extension reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 4907.57 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 5153.25, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Key Short-Term Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $87.24 @ 06:53 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $85.55 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.56 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $76.18 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $72.38 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The recent move down highlights the start of a corrective cycle and suggests potential for an extension towards $85.55, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement that would open $80.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $92.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Key Short-Term Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $86.97 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.15 @ 07:08 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $80.75 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

Last week’s move lower in WTI futures highlights the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this has exposed key short-term support at the 50-day EMA, at $80.75. A clear break of the average would signal a stronger bearish theme and open $76.07, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2308.0 @ 07:11 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $2295.7 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $2217.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

Gold traded lower yesterday and is softer again today. The precious metal has breached the 20-day EMA and this signals the start of a corrective cycle. A continuation would signal scope for an extension towards $2217.4, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle would allow a significant overbought trend condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $28.936/29.797 - High Apr 19 / 12
• PRICE: $26.868 @ 08:13 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $26.696 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $25.702/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver yesterday highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The metal has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a move towards $25.702, the 50-day EMA. Note that a pullback is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. A break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high.