MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TRY Fallout Exposes Key Levels

Tech Focus: TRY price action has been extremely volatile overnight.
It is too early to assess from the charts how bearish underlying sentiment is likely to be near-term and the extent of any additional weakness in the currency - the dust will need to settle first. Key levels to watch though are:

USDTRY:
- RES 2: 8.4707/5793 Intraday high / Nov 6 high and primary resistance
- RES 1: 8.0470 Nov 24 low. Although breached, price is back below it
- SUP 1: 7.6958 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 7.3781 50-day EMA
EURTRY:
- RES 2: 7.7674 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Feb 18 downleg
- RES 1: 9.7451 Intraday and the short-term bull trigger
- SUP 1: 9.1523 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 8.9232 50-day EMA

Price Signal Summary - Oil Corrective Cycle Underway

• In the equity space, E-mini S&P selling pressure is surfacing ahead of the important psychological 4000.00 handle. Support to watch today is at 3875.00, the Friday low.
• In the FX space:
  • EURUSD is again lower Monday. Resistance remains at 1.1990, Mar 11 high. This level represents the trigger for a stronger S/T recovery. Note, Wednesday's price action is a bullish engulfing candle and remains valid. It highlights the potential for stronger gains. However, a break of 1.1990 is needed to confirm this and would open 1.2067, Mar 4 high. Support is at 1.1883, Mar 16 low. A break would instead negate the pattern and expose key support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low.
  • USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Attention is on 109.56, 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance. Support is at 108.34 Mar 10 low.
• On the commodity front, the bullish engulfing candle in Gold on Wednesday remains in play and price is pressuring the 20-day EMA. The focus is on $1783.7, the 50-day EMA. Selling pressure in Oil contracts yesterday confirmed a correction is underway. Brent (K1) potential is for a move to $57.31, Feb 12 low and in WTI (J1), attention is on $60.00.

In the FI space, Bunds (M1) remain vulnerable following last week's sell-off and despite the recovery posted Thursday/Friday. A move lower would expose 170.37, 61.8% of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally. Gilts (M1) registered a fresh trend low print Thursday last week confirming a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 126.55, Apr 17, 2019 low (cont). Treasuries remain in a downtrend. The focus is on 131-00 and 130-07, Feb 2 2020 low and a key support.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2067 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.2040 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1989/90 High Mar 18 / 11 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1937 High Mar 19
• PRICE: 1.1899 @ 05:48 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.1872 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1854/36 200-DMA / Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1800 Low Nov 23
• SUP 4: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD is trading closer to recent lows. The sell-off Thursday / Friday resulted in a break of support at 1.1883, Mar 16 low. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme and exposes key support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low. Note, the 200-day MA lies just above at 1.1854. A break of 1.1836 and of the MA, would confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend and open 1.1800. Key resistance remains 1.1990, Mar 11 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Attention Remains On The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.4062 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 5 low
• RES 1: 1.4005 High Mar 12 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3859 @ 05:55 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.3810 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3806/79 Channel base from Nov 2, 2020 low / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

GBPUSD remains below resistance at 1.4005, Mar 12 high and at the lower end of its recent range. Attention is on support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low ahead of a key bull channel support that intersects at 1.3806. The channel is drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and a clear break of both support levels would represent an important short-term reversal. This would open the 1.3700 handle and below. For bulls, a break of 1.4005 is needed to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 0.8640 High Mar 16
• PRICE: 0.8586 @ 17:02 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 0.8533 Low Mar 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 0.8487 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27

EURGBP is off last week's lows but remains within its recent trading range. Technical signals continue to highlight a bearish trend and attention is on 0.8533 low, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. A clear break would resume the trend and expose 0.8487, a volatility based support area. On the upside, firm short-term resistance is at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break would signal a short-term reversal and open 0.8797, Feb 9 high. Initial resistance is 0.8640.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.56 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 108.80 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 10 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 107.85 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.42 50-day EMA

USDJPY trend conditions remain bullish. The focus is on 109.56, a key retracement where a break would reinforce the current bullish sentiment. Momentum studies are still overbought and this is being monitored. The condition is not having an impact on the trend though and instead, continues to reinforce the current bullish mood. Support to watch is at 108.34, Mar 10 low. A break would signal a possible top and the start of a correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Probes The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 132.06 76.4% of the Mar 2018 - May 2020 downtrend
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.67 @ 17:06 GMT Mar 19
• SUP 1: 128.90 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 128.78 Low Mar 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 2
• SUP 4: 128.06 50-day EMA

EURJPY maintains a bullish tone despite the recent pullback that is likely a correction. The cross has traded below the 20-day EMA, a clear break would allow for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at 128.06. A trendline support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low intersects at 1127.88. Key resistance has been defined at 130.67, Mar 18 high. A break would resume the underlying uptrend and open 131.22, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 0.8044 High Feb 2, 2018
• RES 3: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7916 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 9 low
• RES 1: 0.7849/60 High Mar 18 / 61.8% of the Feb 25 - Mar 9 low
• PRICE: 0.7725 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 0.7691 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7669 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 0.7621 Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7583 Low Feb 5

AUDUSD found resistance last week at 0.7849, Mar 18 high This level marks an important S/T bull trigger where a break is required to resume the recent bullish cycle and suggest scope for an extension higher. This would open 0.7860, a Fibonacci retracement and beyond. On the downside, support 0.7699, Mar 17 low has been probed today. A break would expose the key support and bear trigger at 0.7621, Mar 9 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2625 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 1.2548 High Mar 19
• PRICE: 1.2497 @ 06:40 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.2462 Low Mar 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2365 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2278 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low

USDCAD remains vulnerable despite gains Thursday / Friday. The pair last week cleared key support at 1.2468, Feb 25 low and a recent bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A break of 1.2365, Mar 18 low would open 1.2279, a trendline drawn off the May 2015 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2548, Mar 19 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Key Resistance Exposed Again

• RES 4: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 3: 175.51 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 172.20 High Mar 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 171.80 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 171.63 @ 04:58 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 170.52 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 170.37 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 169.94 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are firmer today, extending the recovery from 170.52, Mar 18 low. The contract last week breached support at 170.72, Mar 5 low signalling scope for a deeper retracement. Attention remains on 170.37 and 169.94, two Fibonacci retracements. A breach of the latter would open key support at 169.24, Feb 25 low and the bear trigger. Following recent gains though, 172.20, Mar 11 high also remains exposed. A break would signal a reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Probing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 135.700 High Dec 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.580 High Feb 11
• RES 2: 135.270 Low Feb 8
• RES 1: 135.240 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.220 @ 05:08 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 135.010 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 134.870 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 4: 134.690 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 22 high

Bobl futures are firmer today and resistance at 135.220, Mar 16 high has been probed. A clear break would end the recent period of consolidation and confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. This would pave the way for strength towards 135.270 initially, Feb 8 low. Initial firm support has been defined at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Trades Through Resistance

• RES 4: 112.205 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 3: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 2: 112.152 0.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 1: 112.140 Intraday high
• PRICE: 112.135 @ 05:26 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 112.095 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.045 Low Mar 1

Schatz futures are firmer this morning. The contract has traded above resistance at 112.125, Mar 1 / 2 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish theme and signals the resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. Attention is on 112.152 and 112.174, Fibonacci projections. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 112.070, Mar 18 low. A break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 128.33 High Mar 16 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 127.34 High Mar 18
• PRICE: 127.53 @ Close Mar 19
• SUP 1: 126.79 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.07 High Dec 10, 2018

Gilt futures maintain a bearish tone. Last week's move to fresh lows confirmed once again a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and with moving average studies also pointing south, further weakness is likely. The move through 127.00 opens 126.55 next, Apr 17, 2019 low (cont). On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.33, Mar 16 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.01/39 High Mar 16 / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 149.15 @ Close Mar 19
• SUP 1: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

Last week's sell-off in BTP futures appears to be an early indication the recent corrective rally between Feb 26 - Mar 11 has run its course. Resistance has been defined at 150.39, Mar 11 high and note that the pivotal 150.69 level also remains intact, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. Continued weakness would open 147.56, the Mar 5 low. For bulls, a break of 150.39 is required to reinstate a bullish focus.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 3926.56 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 2: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3874.91 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3837.02 @ Close Mar 19
• SUP 1: 3818.20 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 3780.00 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3656.21 Low Mar 5 and the key near-term support

EUROSTOXX 50 traded higher Thursday and bullish conditions remain intact. The pullback Friday is considered a correction. The breach on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3889.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 3818.20, Mar 15 low. A break would allow for a deeper corrective pullback.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Bearish Risk

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.79 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $63.80 @ 08:14 Mar 22
• SUP 1: $61.45 - Low Mar 18 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: $60.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $57.09 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures sold off sharply Thursday and this confirms a correction is underway. The trend condition is overbought and a pullback is allowing this to unwind. The sell-off has probed trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low, a clear break would reinforce a bearish theme. $61.45, Mar 18 low is the bear trigger. A breach would open $60.00 and $58.56, 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is seen at $65.79.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Corrective Cycle Likely To Extend

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $62.48 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $60.90 @ 08:21 Mar 22
• SUP 1: $58.28 - Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $57.06 - Low Feb 12
• SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures sold off sharply Thursday confirming a corrective cycle. The trend condition is overbought and the pullback is allowing this to unwind. The move lower sell-off has probed trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and this reinforces the current bearish theme. Price has also tested the 50-day EMA, a clear break of the average would open $55.65, the 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is at $62.18.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Initial Support

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1783.2 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1755.5 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $1729.2 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $1719.3 - Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is under pressure this morning and attention turns to the support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $1699.3, Mar 12 low and the trigger for a test of key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. From a short-term trend perspective, the recovery from $1676.9, Mar 8 low remains intact. Key near-term resistance and the bull trigger is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high. A break would open $1783.2, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and key resistance
• RES 3: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 2: $27.081 - High Mar 1 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $26.636 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $25.520 @ 07:37 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $25.391 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: $24.836/700 - Low Mar 5 / Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7

Silver is under pressure. A bearish risk remains intact and the recent sell-off between Feb 23 - Mar 5 reinforces this theme. A former key support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has also recently been cleared and this sets the scene for a deeper pullback exposing $24.700, Jan 27 low ahead of the Jan 18 low at $24.057. The bear trigger is at $24.836, Mar 5 low. On the upside, firm near-term resistance is seen at $26.636, Mar 18 high.