MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Clears Bull Channel Top

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Clears Bull Channel Top

• The primary trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract traded higher last week and, in the process, cleared several important short-term resistance levels. The 20-day EMA and late last week, the 50-day EMA, have both been cleared. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are in consolidation mode. The contract traded higher last Wednesday and as a result breached the 20-day EMA. The move higher sets the scene for a stronger correction.
• USDJPY remains in an uptrend and the pair has resumed its push higher today. This has resulted in a break through the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high. More importantly though, the USD has also cleared the psychological 120.00 handle. EURUSD is weaker this morning as the pair continues to pull away from last week’s high of 1.1137. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high.
• WTI futures continue to climb and extend the recovery from last Tuesday’s low of $93.53. The move higher means the 50-day EMA, at $95.02 today, remains intact and that this average also provided a firm short-term support. Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish however and the recent pullback is considered corrective.
• Bunds have resumed their downtrend again today. Yesterday the contract traded through last week’s low of 161.56. Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. Recent short-term gains were considered corrective and price has remained below resistance at 123.52, the Mar 9 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Pulls Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1186/1216 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.0982 @ 06:36 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.0949 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD is weaker this morning as the pair continues to pull away from last week’s high of 1.1137. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. The failure to confirm a clear break though reinforces bearish conditions - the trend remains down. Further weakness would open 1.0890, the Mar 9 low and 1.0806, theMar 7 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1137.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact|

• RES 4: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.3353 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3228 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3211 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 1.3127 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.3088/3000 Low Mar 17 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933/2906 Low Nov 5 2020 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD remains below its recent highs. The trend outlook is bearish and last week’s gains are still considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the recent break of 1.3163, Dec 12 low, that confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The bear trigger is 1.3000, Mar 15 low. Resistance to watch is at 1.3228, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8535 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8458 Mar 17 High
• PRICE: 0.8363 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 0.8355/17 Low Mar 14 / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. The short-term outlook is unchanged and bullish. The cross has recently traded above 0.8406, the Feb 25 high. This has strengthened the short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards the next resistance at 0.8478, the Feb 7 high. On the downside, firm support to watch is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low. A break of this level would highlight a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Clears Its Bull Channel Top And The 120.00 Handle

• RES 4: 122.47 2.382 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 121.69 High Jan 29 2016
• RES 2: 121.04 High Feb 2 2016
• RES 1: 120.47 Intraday high
• PRICE: 120.32 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 119.04/ Low Mar 21 / 118.18 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 117.28/117.02 Low Mar 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.35 High Jan 4
• SUP 4: 115.88 50-day EMA

USDJPY remains in an uptrend and the pair has resumed its push higher today. This has resulted in a break through the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high. More importantly though, the USD has also cleared the psychological 120.00 handle. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and strengthens bullish conditions. The focus shifts to 121.04 next, the Feb 2 2016 high. Support is seen at yesterday’s 119.04 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 133.36/48 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 133.15 High Feb 10 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 132.65 High Feb 11
• PRICE: 132.25 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 130.72 Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: 129.58 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.42 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 126.01 Low Mar 9

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend and the cross is trading higher once again today. Recent gains have resulted in breach of all key retracement levels of the recent Feb - Mar downleg. The cross also remains above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This has exposed key resistance at 133.15, the Feb 10 high and 133.48, the Oct 20 201 high. Initial support is seen at 130.72, the Mar 17 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance At 0.7441 Remains Exposes

• RES 4: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 2: 0.7444 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7385 @ 06:54 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 0.7290/43 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7095 Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 0.7080 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg

AUDUSD is trading near its recent highs and maintains a bullish tone. The pair defined a key short-term support last week at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low. The strong reversal from this low signalled a potential resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 28 with moving averages also in a bull mode, highlighting an uptrend. Attention is on 0.7441, the Mar 7 high and a bull trigger. Weakness below 0.7165 is needed to reinstate a bearish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Below Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2710 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2600 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 1.2565 Low Mar 21 and a near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support

USDCAD remains soft, following last week’s reversal from 1.2871, the Mar 15 high. The USD has breached the Mar 3 low of 1.2587. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback near-tem. Attention is on 1.2552 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally and a key short-term support. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.2710, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Clears The Psychological 160.00 Handle

• RES 4: 165.29 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 162.95 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 162.05/73 High Mar 15 / Mar 14
• PRICE: 159.53 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 159.19 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)
• SUP 2: 158.84 Low Oct 22 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 157.92 150.0% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 157.33 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)

Bunds have resumed their downtrend again today. Yesterday the contract traded through last week’s low of 161.56. The break lower has also resulted in a break of the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. The focus is on 159.19, the Nov 8 2018 low (cont). Resistance is at 162.05.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 132.590 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 130.870/131.359 High MAr 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.860 @ 05:16 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 2: 129.008 138.2% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 3: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 128.340 Low Sep 17 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures started the week on a softer note, trading through last week’s low of 130.300 on Mar 16. This has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for a move towards 129.554 next, the 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg. The 20-day EMA at 131.359 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 3: 112.015 High 8
• RES 2: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 111.477/495 20-day EMA / High Mar 15
• PRICE: 111.140 @ 05:30 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 111.100 Round number support
• SUP 2: 111.065 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 110.602 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 bull cycle

Schatz futures are trading lower, having started the week on a bearish note. The move lower strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for an extension towards the 111.000 and 111.065, the Jun 5 2015 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.495.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 121.35 @ Close Mar 21
• SUP 1: 120.86 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. Recent short-term gains were considered corrective and price has remained below resistance at 123.52, the Mar 9 high. The contract continues to pressure key support at 121.10, Feb 6 low and a bear trigger. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. This would open 120.00.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 141.12/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 139.13 @ Close Mar 21
• SUP 1: 138.60/52 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger / Monday’s low
• SUP 2: 138.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower Monday and in the process, probed key support at 138.60, the Feb 16 low and the bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and highlight an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 138.00. Resistance is seen at 141.12, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Holding Onto recent Gains

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4473.00 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 4444.00 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 4336.06 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

The primary trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract traded higher last week and in the process cleared a number of important short-term resistance levels. The 20-day EMA and late last week, the 50-day EMA, have both been cleared. The breach of the latter average is an important short-term bullish development and an extension would open 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. Initial support is at 4336.06, the 20-day EMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Still Exposed

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3875.20 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3788.00 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 3555.50 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are in consolidation mode. The contract traded higher last Wednesday and as a result breached the 20-day EMA. The move higher sets the scene for a stronger correction. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3878.10. This average represents an important resistance and if cleared, would strengthen a bullish short-term theme. Support to watch lies at 3555.50 Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $123.01 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $119.48 - Intraday High
• PRICE: $118.20 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $105.95 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $96.93/97.71 - Low Mar 16 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures are firmer this morning again. The contract last week managed to remain above key support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $97.71 today. Price has cleared resistance at 113.91, the Mar 11 high. The break of this level has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery towards 123.01 a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, clearance of the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Positive Short-Term Tone Remains Intact

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $121.78 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $116.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $115.01 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $114.40 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $102.97 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $95.02/93.53 - Low Mar 15 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $87.46 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures continue to climb and extend the recovery from last Tuesday’s low of $93.53. The move higher means the 50-day EMA, at $95.02 today, remains intact and that this average also provided a firm short-term support. A continuation higher would open 116.38 and 121.78, Fibonacci retracement levels. On the downside, a breach of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1954.7 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $1932.6 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $1895.3 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $1894.3- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish however and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The move lower has also allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1894.3 next, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, an initial firm S/T resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.210 @ 08:03 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: $24.473 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $24.337 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play despite the bounce off last Wednesday’s $24.473 low. Potential is seen for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal traded below the 20-day EMA last week and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.337. This EMA marks an important support. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.