MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -USD/JPY Corrective Bounce Extends

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Corrective Bounce Extends

• S&P E-Minis remain in an uptrend and short-term pull backs are considered corrective - for now. Gains last week resulted in a break of resistance at 4050.75, the Nov 15 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and S/T pullbacks are considered corrective - for now. Recent high prints mark an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and confirms a continuation of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD traded higher Monday but failed to hold on to its gains. The trend is up, however, yesterday’s price action once again highlights a possible bearish threat. Monday is a shooting star candle pattern - a reversal signal. Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Last week’s gains reinforce the uptrend - the pair has traded through the 200-dma. The short-term trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish, however, the pair has entered a corrective cycle following the recovery from last Friday’s low. This is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.
• Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower highlights this theme. The sell-off on Nov 28, resulted in a break of $74.96, Sep 28 low. Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and yesterday’s retracement - for now - appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme and price has breached $1786.5, Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective - for now. Resistance at 142.60, the Nov 24 high, has been pierced. This reinforces current bullish conditions. Gilt futures remain in consolidation mode for now. Trend conditions remain bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up, reinforcing the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle Pattern

• RES 4: 1.00774 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0668 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0595/0615 High Dec 5 / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.0486 @ 05:35 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.0394 Low Dec 1
• SUP 2: 1.0322/0291 Low Dec 1 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 1.0223 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.0161 50-day EMA

EURUSD traded higher Monday but failed to hold on to its gains. The trend is up, however, yesterday’s price action once again highlights a possible bearish threat. Monday is a shooting star candle pattern - a reversal signal. If correct, it suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement that would open 1.0322, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of Monday’s high would cancel this threat and instead resume the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2345/2406 High Dec 5 / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2186 @ 05:49 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.2154 High Nov 24 and a recent breakout point
• SUP 2: 1.2054/1935 Low Dec 1 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 1.1725 50-day EMA

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Last week’s gains reinforce the uptrend - the pair has traded through the 200-dma. This maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving averages studies are in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.1901, the Nov 30 low.

EURGBP TECHS:Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8778 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8668 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8610 @ 06:090 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 0.8547 Low Dec 1
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8449 1.236 proj of the Oct 12 - 31 - Nov 9 price swing

EURGBP remains above last week’s low. The short-term outlook is unchanged and a bearish threat remains present. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 that was pierced last Thursday. A clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Note that moving average studies have crossed, highlighting a potential bear mode set-up. A clear break of 0.8560 would reinforce this condition. Key resistance is at 0.8829.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.68 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 138.12 High Dec 1
• RES 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 137.17 @ 06:39 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 133.63 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.56 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2

The short-term trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish, however, the pair has entered a corrective cycle following the recovery from last Friday’s low. This is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. An extension higher would open 139.68, the 20-day EMA. This average is seen as the first key short-term resistance. On the downside, the bear trigger is 133.63, the Dec 2 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Solid Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 145.23 High Nov 24
• RES 3: 144.85 High Nov 30
• RES 2: 144.93 Trendline drawn from the Oct 21 high
• RES 1: 144.10 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 143.94 @ 06:47 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 140.77 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.44 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 138.06 Low Sep 28

EURJPY traded sharply higher Monday as the corrective bounce from last Friday’s low extended. A continuation higher would expose key short-term trendline support that intersects at 144.93 today. The trendline is drawn from the Oct 21 high and a break of this line is required to signal a reversal. On the downside, key support has been defined at 140.77, the Dec 2 low. A breach of this level would resume recent bearish activity.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6851 High Dec 5
• PRICE: 0.6729 @ 08:09 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 0.6673/6641 20-day EMA / Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: 0.6616/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish despite Monday’s weakness that appears to be a correction. Firm support to watch lies at 0.6616, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement instead. On the upside, last week’s gains resulted in a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Breaches Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3690 61.8% retracement of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3646 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 1.3585 @ 08:17 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.3385 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD traded higher Monday and in the process cleared trendline resistance drawn from the Oct-13 high. The trendline intersects at 1.3549. Attention is on 1.3646, the Nov 29 high, where a break would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a continuation higher near-term towards 1.3690, a retracement level. On the downside, firm support is seen at 1.3385, Monday’s low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 144.29 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 143.87 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 143.18 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 141.76 @ 04:55 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 140.50/139.17 20-day EMA / Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 138.26 Low Nov 18
• SUP 3: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective - for now. Resistance at 142.60, the Nov 24 high, has been pierced. This reinforces current bullish conditions. Price has also recently traded above the 50-day EMA at 140.42. The clear break of this EMA highlights a stronger reversal. Potential is seen for a climb to 143.87, the Sep 14 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 140.50.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bullish While Price Trades Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 121.290 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 120.440 @ 05:00 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 120.004/390 20-day EMA / Low Nov 28 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 119.180 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 118.710 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 118.260 Low Nov 8 and a key support

Bobl futures have pulled back from recent highs. The contract recently breached resistance at 120.530, Nov 10 high. The outlook is bullish and note that the 50-day EMA, at 120.203, has also been cleared - the break of this average strengthens bullish conditions. 121.010, Oct 28 high, has been breached too and this opens 121.950 further out, Oct 4 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.390, the Nov 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 107.170 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 106.880 @ 05:04 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 106.832 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 3: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Schatz futures remain above support at the Nov 10 low of 106.615. The contract has traded above the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.032. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 107.400, the Oct 28 high. Key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger. Initial support is at 106.832, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.95 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 106.13 @ Close Dec 5
• SUP 1: 104.78 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Gilt futures remain in consolidation mode for now. Trend conditions remain bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up, reinforcing the uptrend. The focus is on a climb to 109.47 next, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Key short-term support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 123.71 123.6 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.81 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 120.72 @ Close Dec 6
• SUP 1: 118.65/33 20-day EMA / Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 117.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.58 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 114.68 Low Nov 10

BTP futures trend signals remain bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Futures traded to a fresh cycle high last week, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has also traded through the 120.00 handle, a clear break of it would reinforce current conditions. The focus is on 122.00 next. Initial firm support is at 118.65, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 4021.00/49.50 High Dec 1 / High Feb 23 (cont)
• PRICE: 3954.00 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 3921.00/3840.00 Low Nov 29 / 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17
• SUP 3: 3742.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and S/T pullbacks are considered corrective - for now. Recent high prints mark an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and confirms a continuation of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of 3810.00, Aug 17 high, also strengthens the case for bulls. The focus is on 4049.50, Feb 23 high (cont). Initial firm to watch support is 3840, Nov 17 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4110.00 High Dec 1
• PRICE: 4003.25 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 3973.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3915.10/3912.50 50-day EMA values / Low Nov 17
• SUP 3: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support

S&P E-Minis remain in an uptrend and short-term pull backs are considered corrective - for now. Gains last week resulted in a break of resistance at 4050.75, the Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 4146.63, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3912.50, the Nov 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $97.85 - High Nov 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $95.38 - High Nov 14
• RES 2: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 1: $88.95/89.37 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 1
• PRICE: $83.40 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $80.81 - Low Nov 30 / 28
• SUP 2: $79.68 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $77.04 - Low Jan 1 (cont)
• SUP 4: $75.75 - Low Dec 27 2021 (cont)

The trend condition in Brent futures is bearish and yesterday’s strong sell-off reinforces this condition. Price has recently pierced support at $82.30, the Nov 21 low. A clear breach of this level would expose key support and the bear trigger at $79.68, the Sep 26 low. Moving averages are in a bear mode position, highlighting bearish sentiment. Resistance is at $88.95, the 50-day EMA. It remains intact, a clear break would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $92.53 - High Nov 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $89.20 - High Nov 11
• RES 2: $86.90 - High Nov 16
• RES 1: $83.40 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.50 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $76.29 - Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: $73.38 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower highlights this theme. The sell-off on Nov 28, resulted in a break of $74.96, Sep 28 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, opening $73.38, a Fibonacci projection and the $70.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current trend direction. Resistance is at $83.40, the 50-day EMA. A break would alter the picture.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective - For Now

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1807.9/10.0 - High Aug 10 and key resistance / High Dec 5
• PRICE: $1770.4 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $1749.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and yesterday’s retracement - for now - appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme and price has breached $1786.5, Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. $1800.0 has also been cleared and sights are on resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high (pierced yesterday). A clear break would be bullish. Key trend support has been defined at $1729.0, the Nov 23 low.

SILVER TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 3: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 1: $23.517 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $22.371 @ 07:26 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $21.504 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $20.682/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the metal traded higher last week, clearing resistance at $22.251, the Nov 15 high. Monday’s pullback appears corrective at this stage. A continuation higher would reinforce bullish conditions and highlight an extension of the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $23.567, the Apr 29 high. Initial firm support lies at $21.504, the 20-day EMA.