MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Resumes Primary Uptrend

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resumes Its Primary Uptrend

• The S&P E-Minis short-term condition remains bearish and near-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has this week traded below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4451.78 today, and this has reinforced a bearish threat. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating and still appear vulnerable. Recent weakness resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached.
• USDJPY maintains a firmer tone having resumed its uptrend Wednesday and traded to a fresh cycle high. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the uptrend near-term, with potential for a climb to 126.71, a Fibonacci projection. EURUSD has recovered from Wednesday’s low and key support at 1.0806, the Mar 7 low, remains intact. The outlook is bearish though. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat. USDCAD traded higher initially Wednesday, reaching 1.2676, before reversing into the close. The pair is again trading lower this morning. The pullback does threaten the recent bull theme and a deeper retracement would open 1.2479, the Apr 6 low.
• Gold traded higher again yesterday. The short-term outlook is bullish following this week’s move above $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. Recent weakness in WTI futures resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This marked an extension of the current bearish cycle and the print below the EMA still suggests scope for an extension lower short-term.
• Bund futures traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday. The primary trend is down and moving average studies remain in a bear mode. Furthermore, the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019, remains intact. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. The contract found resistance on Apr 4 at 122.35. The pullback means price has failed to remain above the 20-day EMA, and that an important resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high, has remained intact.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Holds For Now

• RES 4: 1.1243 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 1.1185/1222 High Mar 31 / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1073 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0963 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0913 @ 06:08 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.0806 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD has recovered from Wednesday’s low and key support at 1.0806, the Mar 7 low, remains intact. The outlook is bearish though. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat. A break of 1.0806 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0767, the May 7 2020 low. For bulls, clearance of 1.1185 is needed to highlight a base and reinstate a bull theme. Initial resistance is at 1.0963, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 1.3355 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.3298 High Mar 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3229 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3167 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 1.3144 @ 06:19 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.3102/2974 Intraday low / Low Apr 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD touched a fresh trend low of 1.2974 on Wednesday before staging a strong recovery. The pair is firmer today and is trading above the 20-day EMA, at 1.3114. The primary trend remains down, however, yesterday’s gains do suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce. Wednesday’s activity appears to be a bullish engulfing reversal candle. An extension would open 1.3229, the 50-day EMA. 1.2974 is the bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2022
• RES 3: 0.8512/55 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 0.8370 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8306 @ 06:25 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Low Mar 23 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8276 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 31 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

A bearish threat in EURGBP remains present and this week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The focus on 0.8296, the Mar 23 low and today’s intraday low, where a break would open 0.8276, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 31 rally. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8405, Apr 11 high ahead of 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. A break of 0.8405 would represent a short-term bullish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 128.15 High May 17 2002
• RES 3: 127.71 3.764 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 2: 127.16 3.618 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 1: 126.32/71 High Apr 13 / 3.50 proj of Dec 3 ‘21-Jan 4-24 swing
• PRICE: 125.32 @ 06:38 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 124.77/123.47 Low Apr 12 / Low Apr 6 and 7
• SUP 2: 122.56 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 121.28 Low Mar 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 120.00 Round number support

USDJPY maintains a firmer tone having resumed its uptrend Wednesday and traded to a fresh cycle high. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the uptrend near-term, with potential for a climb to 126.71, a Fibonacci projection. The trend condition is overbought, however despite this, sentiment remains firmly in the bull camp. Key trend support has been defined at 121.28, the Mar 31 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 2: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• RES 1: 137.13 High Apr 11
• PRICE: 136.79 @ 06:48 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 134.32/133.94 20-day EMA / Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 133.15 High Feb 10
• SUP 3: 132.38 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

The EURJPY pullback from 137.53, Mar 28 high still appears to be a correction and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is at 134.32/133.94, the 20-day EMA and Mar 28 low respectively. A break lower would open 133.15, the Feb 10 high. The primary trend remains up and the bull trigger is 137.50/53. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and expose 138.62, the Aug 25 2015 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7762 76.4% retracement of the Feb ‘21 - Jan ‘22 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7716 High Jun 16 2021
• RES 2: 0.7643/61 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 0.7457 @ 06:58 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 0.7392 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 0.7365 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7283 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 0.7181 Low Mar 16

AUDUSD remains vulnerable near-term following the recent pullback from 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Note that price activity on Apr 5 confirmed a bearish candle - a shooting star - and the subsequent move lower reinforces this pattern and a bearish theme. The 20-day EMA at 0.7449, has been breached and this opens the 50-day EMA at 0.7365 - a key support. On the upside, 0.7661 represents the trigger for a resumption of bullish activity.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 1.2783 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 1: 1.2676 High Apr 13 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2559 @ 08:09 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.2533 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 1.2479 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.2429/2403 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD traded higher initially Wednesday, reaching 1.2676, before reversing into the close. The pair is again trading lower this morning. The pullback does threaten the recent bull theme and a deeper retracement would open 1.2479, the Apr 6 low. Note that yesterday’s session appears to be a bearish engulfing candle. On the upside, clearance of 1.2676 would instead confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 160.31 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 156.19/58.17 High Apr 11 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 155.72 @ 05:13 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 154.27 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 154.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 153.48 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)

Bunds futures traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday. The primary trend is down and moving average studies remain in a bear mode. Furthermore, the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019, remains intact. 156.00 has been cleared and this opens the 154.00 handle next. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Key trend resistance is at 159.79, the Apr 4 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trend Sequence Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 130.291 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 1: 128.470/911 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.840 @ 05:15 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 127.120 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 126.940 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a downtrend and a fresh cycle low on Apr 12, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on a move towards 126.940, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 129.350, the Apr 4 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.690 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 110.480 @ 05:24 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 110.295 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain bearish. The Apr 12 fresh cycle low, once again confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 110.855, the Apr 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 120.72/122.35 20-day EMA / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 120.47 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 119.44 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 118.42 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 118.05 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. The contract found resistance on Apr 4 at 122.35. The pullback means price has failed to remain above the 20-day EMA, and that an important resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high, has remained intact. The recent cycle low prints this week confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 118.05 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is at 122.35, Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 136.84/38.68 20-day EMA / High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 1: 136.12 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 134.87 @ Close Apr 13
• SUP 1: 132.69 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 132.61 Low Apr 22 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

BTP futures traded lower on Apr 12, again extending the recent breach of support at 135.69, Mar 29 low. The move lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 132.61 next, the Apr 22 2020 low (cont). Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00/3965.50 High Mar 29 / High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 3767.00 @ 05:36 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating and still appear vulnerable. Recent weakness resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached. The move lower undermines a recent bull theme and highlights a developing bearish threat. An extension would open 3626.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4519.75/4588.75 High Apr 8 / High Apr 5
• PRICE: 4452.50 @ 06:54 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 4362.63 50.0% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 2: 4499.29 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4239.00 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 4220.92 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally

The S&P E-Minis short-term condition remains bearish and near-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has this week traded below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4451.78 today, and this has reinforced a bearish threat. The move below 4400.00 signals scope for weakness towards 4362.63 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been established at 4519.75, Apr 8 high A break would ease the bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Remains Below First Resistance

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $112.28/119.74 - High Mar 30 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $109.90 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $107.87 @ 07:00 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $101.06/97.57 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.58 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $84.74 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain vulnerable despite this week’s gains, which still appear corrective. The contract has recently challenged a key support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $101.06 today. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper decline and open $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is $109.90, the Apr 5 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Corrective Gains

• RES 4: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $108.75/112.93 -High Mar 30 / High Mar 28
• RES 1: $105.59 - High Apr 5 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $103.10 @ 07:13 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $97.92/92.93 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

Recent weakness in WTI futures resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This marked an extension of the current bearish cycle and the print below the EMA still suggests scope for an extension lower short-term. The focus is on $92.20, Mar 15 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $105.59, Apr 5 high. Recent gains are considered corrective. A break of $105.59 however would ease bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bull Theme

• RES 4: $2059.2 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1981.6 - High Apr 13
• PRICE: $1974.0 @ 07:17 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $1942.6/17.5 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold traded higher again yesterday. The short-term outlook is bullish following this week’s move above $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. The breach highlights a range breakout and suggests scope for an extension of current short-term gains. The focus is on $2001.6 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. A breach of this support would reinstate a bearish threat.

SILVER TECHS: Probes Resistance

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.877 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.756 @ 08:00 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $24.631/23.974 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver resistance $25.847, Mar 24 high, has been probed. The metal has traded higher in recent sessions and this means that it has recently found support at the 50-day EMA - at $24.631 today. A clear break of $25.847 would represent a bullish development and signal potential for a climb towards $26.943, the Mar 8 high and a bull trigger. Key support below the 50-day EMA has been defined at $23.974, the Feb 24 low.