MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Nov Sales Jump; Lifted By Black Friday>

-UK Nov total sales +1.4% m/m, +3.6% y/y in Oct

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchi 

     LONDON (MNI) - Retail sales volumes surged in November, courtesy 

of Black Friday promotions, leaving the sector on track to contribute 

positively to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. 

     Sales volumes rose by 1.4% between October and November, far 

exceeding analysts' forecast of a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, 

retail sales increased by 3.6%. 

     October sales were revised to show a 0.4% monthly decrease and a 

2.4% annual gain, better than the originally-reported 0.5% monthly slump 

and 2.2% yearly improvement. 

     That leaves sales poised to lift gross domestic product in the 

fourth quarter. In the absence of revisions, sales could fall by 1.0% 

between November and December if volumes and still match the level of 

the third quarter. Retail sales have not declined by such a large amount 

since May of 2017. 

     However, many retailers have lamented a decline in footfall in the 

pre-holiday period, raising questions about whether Black Friday 

promotions have shifted traditional December buying into November. 

However, a National Statistics official voiced confidence in the 

seasonal adjustment of monthly sales data. 

     Internet sales -- measured in value terms -- rose to a record-high 

21.5% of all sales on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis.  Adjusting for 

seasonality, on-line sales increased to joint-record 18.2% of the total, 

from 18.1% in October. However, the non-seasonally adjusted ratio better 

captured the impact of the full promotional period, including Cyber 

Monday, according to the official. 

     The implied price deflator rose by 1.3% in the year to November, 

the smallest rise since December of 2016, from 1.6% a month earlier. 

     Fuel prices accounted for much of the acceleration in retail 

inflation, jumping by an annual rate of 8.6%. Excluding fuel, the 

implied deflator rose by 0.5, the lowest in just shy of two years. 

     Excluding fuel, sales increased by 1.2% last month, or by 3.8% 

compared with November of 2017. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]