MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Retail Sales Plummet In April: BRC

--BRC March Like-for-Like Sales Down 4.2% y/y; Total Sales Down 3.1%

     LONDON (MNI) - UK retail sales growth collapsed to a record-low in April,

largely attributed to this year's earlier Easter, but continued to signal

depressed discretionary spending appetites across UK households, British Retail

Consortium (BRC) data released Wednesday showed.

     April like-for-like sales shrank 4.2% on the year, the worst outturn since

April 2005, compared to the 5.6% expansion in sales values in the same month of

2017. 

     Slipping to a series low, total sales growth contracted 3.1% on the year in

April, versus a 6.3% surge in April 2017. 

     The contrast in growth figures over this April and last capture the timing

effects of Easter and the associated spending boost during the holiday period.

Easter fell earlier this year (April 1) compared to last year (April 16),

meaning retail sales figures for this April, following the peak spend in the

build up to Easter, were compared against a high base.

     --NO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

     The BRC data is not seasonally adjusted and thus does not adjust for events

like Easter or Christmas where households tend to loosen the purse strings. In

addition, the data reports on sales sales values as opposed to the ONS's

headline sales volume measure, and thus is also distorted by changes in price

inflation.   

     Caution must be exercised when looking at the monthly figures, particularly

given the seasonal distortions mentioned above, with three-month averages

providing a better measure of underlying growth. These also point to underlying

weakness, however.  

     Over the three months to April, food sales grew by 1.7% on a like-for-like

basis and 3.0% on a total basis, down sharply from 4.2% and 5.3% respectively in

the three months to March.     

     Non-food retail sales fared similarly, with growth creeping further into

the red. On a like-for-like basis sales were down 2.4% in the three months to

April and down 1.6% on a total basis -- the latter the lowest since March 2009.

     --WEATHER APPAREL BOOST

     The survey pointed to anecdotal evidence of a boost to clothing and

footwear high street sales, as better weather followed the wet and snowy

conditions shoppers had to endure in March. 

     Online, sales growth continued to buck the trend as sales of all major

categories except baby equipment and toys picked up in April versus April last

year.    

     "A drop in sales this April, compared to last, was almost inevitable given

the earlier timing of Easter. With much of the spending in preparation for the

Bank Holiday weekend falling in March this year, a record low in sales growth,

in contrast to last year's record high, does not come as a surprise," Helen

Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said. 

     "Once we take account of these seasonal distortions, the underlying trend

in sales growth is heading downwards," she added. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

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