MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Down 2,000 In Aug 18 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 1,750 To 213,750

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 2,000 to 210,000 in the August 18 week, below the 215,000 level 

expected by analysts in an MNI survey following no revision to the 

212,000 level in the previous week, data released by the Labor 

Department Thursday showed. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 1,750 

to 213,750 in the August 18 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 2,250 as the 219,000 level in the July 28 week 

rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago 

level. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 2.7%, or 

4,883 in unadjusted claims. Unadjusted claims however, actually saw an 

decrease of 3.9%, or 7,107 to 172,932. The current week's level was well 

below the 195,130 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WK AVERAGE DECLINE

     The level of continuing claims fell by 2,000 to 1.727 million in 

the August 11 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell 

by 10,557 to 1.668 million, remaining below the 1.886 million level seen 

in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 5,000 to 1.736 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the August 11 week, down from the 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low. 

     Claims were estimated for Maine only. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]