MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 10,000 In Sep 1 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 2,750 To 209,500

--Nonfarm Productivity Unrev at +2.9%; Unit Labor Costs Now -1.0%

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 10,000 to 203,000 in the September 1 week, well below the 

210,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey and the lowest since 

the December 6, 1969 week, data released by the Labor Department 

Thursday showed. 

     The claims level in the previous week was unrevised from the 

previously reported 213,000 level. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 2,750 

to 209,500 in the September 1 week, the lowest since the December 6, 

1969 week when it was 204,500. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 2,250 as the 212,000 level in the August 11 week 

rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago 

level. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a increase of 2.7%, or 

4,687 in unadjusted claims. Unadjusted claims, however, actually saw a 

decrease of 1.9%, or 3,390 to 172,355. The current week's level was 

well below the 250,627 level in the comparable week a year ago, when 

hurricanes boosted the number of claims for one week. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WK AVERAGE FALL

     The level of continuing claims fell by 3,000 to 1.707 million in 

the August 25 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell 

by 27,788 to 1.596 million, remaining below the 1.812 million level seen 

in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 13,250 to 1.719 million, the lowest level since 

the December 8, 1973 week when it was 1.716 million.

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the August 25 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low. 

     Claims were estimated for California, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Puerto 

Rico, and Virginia. The large number of estimates is likely due to the 

shorter reporting period due to the Labor Day holiday.                                     

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

--PRODUCTIVITY UNREV, ULC REV DOWN

     In other data released on Thursday, second quarter nonfarm 

productivity was unrevised from the 2.9% rate reported in the 

preliminary estimate, reflecting slight upward adjustments to both 

output and hours worked. 

     Analysts had expected a small upward revision to productivity to 

3.0%. 

     As a result, unit labor costs were revised down to a 1.0% pace of 

decline from the 0.9% decline reported in the preliminary estimate. 

     There were no revisions to the rates of productivity and unit labor 

cost growth in the first quarter. 

     On a year/year basis, productivity rose 1.3% in the second quarter 

after a 1.0% rise in the first quarter. Unit labor costs were up 1.9% 

year/year after a 2.0% rise in the previous quarter. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]